I like to talk about the possible upheavals in the NCAA conference landscape in the next 2 years.
As some of you might know the Big Ten has been looking to expand their conference. As of right now their TV revenue is already the biggest in the NCAA. Other conferences have deals with media outlets such as ESPN or CBS. The Big Ten however runs their own cable TV channel along with their deals with networks like ABC. For every household who receive the BTN (Big Ten Network) as part of its standard cable package the Big Ten receives $0.8 per month. Right now the BTN's reach is already over 25 million households but its mostly concentrated in the great Lakes area. Big Ten commissioner Delany has been
talking about expanding to new TV markets especially ones in the Sun Belt area.
Major Current Developments
Nebraska might join the Big Ten as soon as this Friday.
http://www.omaha.com/article/20100608/BIGRED/306089786/0
My Comments
If Big Ten have gotten Notre Dame on-board then my feelings is that they would stop their expansion plan right there. The NCAA conferences would remain unchanged. However now that it appears Notre Dame has snubbed the Big Ten invitation then it's possible there will be dramatic conference realignment in the next few years.
Possibilities for dramatic realignment
1. Pac-16?
The Big 12 hasn't been a happy family lately with Nebraska feeling left out in what some Cornhuskers deride as the "Greater Texas conference". Texas and their posse who controls the Big 12 has given Nebraska and Missouri this
ultimatum i.e. either stay or we'll leave for the Pac-10. This by itself is pretty hilarious since Texas is preparing toplace all the blame on Nebraska if the conference falls into pieces even though they have been negotiating with the Pac-10 to form a super-conference i.e. the Pac-16 if Nebraska does finally bail. The Pac-16 will be all the current Pac-10 teams plus Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Baylor or Colorado. The issue with Baylor or Colorado is still rather controversial as Colorado also wants to join the Pac-10 however the Texas Legislature has threaten to cut off state funding to UT Austin if they don't take A&M, Baylor and Tech with them to the Pac-10. Now Pac-10 only really want Oklahoma and Texas since they are also in the process of creating their own cable TV network and those two schools will be enough to bring in the Texas & Oklahoma TV markets and all the prestige/money. I think one tOSU fans put it the best: Texas is like that hot blonde that you want to marry but she has 3 kids.
My opinion on this is that if Pac-16 is indeed formed then Colorado will be the school that would be left out.
2. Big Ten to become the Big-16?
Given that Notre Dame has decided to stay independent and Nebraska bailing out on the Big 12 means the formation of Pac-16. The Big Ten will not stop at just 12 teams since they'll want to keep up with the Pac-16 Missouri is already on-board and couldn't be more eager to take a bite out of the sumptuous BTN pie. Missouri's attraction for the Big Ten is the potential capture the Kansas City/St. Louis TV markets. With Missouri and Nebraska added the Big Ten I think will look to the east to add 3 more teams. This means that Big Ten will be poaching the ACC and Big East conferences for teams to add. Rutgers is a possibility even though their sports program is pathetic and no one in the NYC watch college sports. However the NYC TV market is huge and the setup of BTN doesn't strictly require viewership to bring in revenue. It just need the local cable operators to carry the channel. The likes of Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Maryland,
Georgia Tech all have been also been tossed around as potential candidates. Note that these schools are all AAU schools. The Big Ten conference is known for only having
AAU schools so any school they invite would most likely have to be in the AAU (Nebraska and Missouri are). The AAU is an association of 61 US universities and 2 Canadian Universities who are admitted based on their excellence in graduate school education and research. Membership is by invitation only and if you look through the members list on the AAU site it include all the elite US private universities i.e. the Ivies, Stanford, Duke, Emory, Vanderbilt, Cal Tech, MIT, plus the best public Universities i.e. Michigan, UC. Berkeley, UCLA, UNC Chapel Hill, Georgia Tech, etc. I am proud to say that my school Georgia Tech was finally invited to the AAU back in April of this year (the first school to be invited in a decade). I think it was long due btw. So why do I mention this little tidbit. Well because it's possible that Georgia Tech might get an invite from the Big Ten now that we are finally AAU. If all the hells break loose in the ACC I really hope Georgia Tech gets an invite from Big Ten. Why do I think that ACC might be going down? Well it all has to do with the almighty SEC.
3. Expansion of SEC
Of course with these developments we can't expect the so called best college football conference in the nation to stand by and be idle. Rumor has it that SEC Commissioner Mike Slive already has a contingent plan in place if the realignment is happening. They are going to poach some ACC teams including the likes of FSU, Miami, Georgia Tech and possibly either Louisville or Clemson. For me Georgia Tech going back to the SEC just leaves a bad taste in my mouth plus it doesn't make any sense for the SEC. The SEC already has a sizable portion of the TV market in Georgia with UGA. Academically Georgia Tech doesn't fit in the SEC and neither does Vanderbilt but that is another story. Also GT left the SEC back in the 60s because of terrible treatment from the conference. Anyhow with the SEC poaching the ACC it's likely that the ACC will be weakened significantly and I definitely don't want GT to stay in a neutered ACC.
Options for Georgia Tech
Ranked according to my own preference.
1: ACC remains intact (SEC doesn't expand and B10 only gets some Big East teams). GT doesn't go anywhere. Perfect!
2: ACC gets watered down (due to teams leaving for both the SEC and B10). GT joins the Big Ten. Keeping some of the old rivalries like Clemson, Auburn and of course UGA as out of conference games. Making some new rivalries. I would love to see GT playing against Penn State in Happy valley. There is also bonus of tOSU stealing UGA recruits.
3: ACC gets watered down. GT joins SEC. Ugh! We are going to become slightly better than the Vanderbilt/Kentucky of the conference.
4: ACC gets watered down. GT stays put. Our football program is fucked..
I don't know about you guys but all these potential changes makes it a very exciting off-season in college football for me. Can you imagine that in 5 years the Big 12 could be completely gone along with the Big East and ACC (the remnants of those 2 might merge to form a super basketball conference)? When the dust finally settles there could be only three super-conferences with 16 teams each.
More noise that Nebraska is leaving for the Big Ten..
http://www.thebuckeyebattlecry.com/?p=5338
