I expect them to drag out the prison time. Red will be found guilty. Appeals can go on for years, after all, and he can finally be let out maybe as late as the season finale. Dembe will find out it was Liz that set up Red. Red will want to know who set him up since he is aware Dembe discovered the truth. Dembe refuses to tell unless Red comes clean with Liz. Liz gets the truth about Red and Liz fesses up to Red about putting him in jail but, as usual, regrets going behind Red's back and works to get him out. Liz and her half-sister end up at odds and Liz has to chose between the sister and Red in some fashion or other. I am betting Liz either kills or lets the sister die. At the very least their relationship will break up.