Sorry I've been gone so long. I'm afraid that when that big storm hit Washington, I was one of the many Washingtonians who lost power, and it wasn't restored until this evening.
Sci
In 'Losing the peace' and ZSG it is directly established that the federation is internally unstable.
Sort-of. You're overstating it.
Losing the Peace established that the refugee crisis was threatening to create instability, but they
solved both the refugee crisis and the Alpha Centauri secession threat in that same novel. The only hint of internal instability in ZSG is a little bit of foreshadowing to PoD.
Not quite, Sci.
In 'Losing the peace', member worlds were thinking about seceding. A vote was organised and most voted to remain.
You are, again, over-stating it. In LtP, the Governor of Alpha Centauri had the notion of pushing for Alpha Centauri to secede. Within a day of him getting that idea, he'd renounced it after seeing the refugee crisis on Pacifica. He pushed for the referendum anyway, because he knew it would be a symbolic re-affirmation of the Articles of the Federation. Same thing on those other worlds. I don't recall anything in LtP indicating that there was a widespread, public separatist movement encompassing multiple planets, just that a few angry elites like the Governor had the thought.
BUT, as per ZSG - which takes place AFTER "Losing the peace' -, this was not the end of political instability in he federation. Not even close:
In the book, there is a scene between Bracco and the kingon ambassador. The ambassador says ~'We're having as much trouble keeping ourselves together as you have, madame president. Perhaps more, because we conquered most of our subjects'.
AKA the federation is politically highly unstable during ZSG, as well.
More like, a Klingon pointing out Bacco's limited political capital in a democratic government and exaggerating to give himself cover for refusing aid to the Empire's ally.
They've had
two referendums on secession in the last thirty years. The
first referendum in 1980 came back with No at 59.56%/Yes 40.44%. The
second referendum in 1995 came back as No 50.58%/49.42%. The largest political party in Quebec, the
Bloc Québécois advocates for secession. And in 1999, the Canadian Parliament passed the
Clarity Act, which outlines the conditions under which the Canadian Crown-in-Council would recognize a province's secession.
So it's very fair to say that secessionist sentiment in Quebec is a major political force, far more than what we'd ever be familiar with in modern America. And yet I still doubt Canada would collapse if Quebec seceded.
Are the other canadian territories thinking of seceding?
Provinces. They're called
provinces.
And, yes, there are
secessionist movements in other provinces.
Canada is a model of political stability by comparison to present federation.
The present Federation, where a
single Federation Member State has seceded after numerous others have re-affirmed their intention to stay Members? That one?
No. I think that a Federation composed of Earth and over one hundred other worlds counts as a Federation still intact. Remember, the Federation had just added its 155th Member right before the Borg Invasion. Even if we assume that the Borg destroyed 30 Members, that still leaves 120 Members -- 119 after Andor's secession.
Which could easily turn into 10 members in the very near future,
Couldawouldashoulda. You have no evidence, you're just outlining possibilities. Any damn thing is
possible; that doesn't make any damn thing probable. You tried to claim that Andor leaving meant that the Federation would only have about a dozen species as Members, and the actual numbers flatly contradict your assertion. Your statements here are full of nonsense.
if the current trend in the federation holds.
I had no idea a single event constituted a trend.
And stopping this trend requires actually fulfilling some - how did you called them? - 'impossible' orders/assignments/etc.
You're confusing the idea of keeping
Andor from seceding being impossible with the idea of keeping
other Member States from seceding being impossible.
The level of difficulty is inherently going to be different for each individual world being considered, because
every Federation Member State is different.
In
Losing the Peace, it was ridiculously easy to keep Alpha Centauri from seceding. Why? Because there was no actual grassroots support for the idea of seceding, just a hotheaded Governor with some hair-brained ideas for what to push for who was easily swayed once he was confronted with the reality of his own sense of entitlement.
In
Paths of Disharmony, on the other hand, there seems to have been a years-long grassroots movement for Andorian secession, as a consequence of the Andorian reproduction crisis and of the difficulties the Federation has had. You can't stand against the will of the people in a democracy. It wasn't the will of the people of Alpha Centauri that they secede, so secession could be prevented. It
was the will of the people that Andor secede, so preventing it becomes impossible.
It will inherently vary from planet to planet. It's a mistake to treat every planet like they're all the same and interchangeable.
As it happens, 'Taking wing' specifically said not only that a small majority is against it, but also that a large minority is FOR the reunification.
I just re-read that section yesterday. It does not say that. It establishes that a small majority is opposed to unification. It does not establish anything about the large minority who do not explicitly oppose unification. Deanna Troi's internal monologue features her inferring that Vulcan is split down the middle, but no data is actually given about the poll results beyond the small majority who oppose unification.
As such, it remains entirely possible that the remainder might be divided between people who support unification, people who have no opinion, or people who are undecided.
Also in RBoE, Spock directly says that one of the ways he envisions vulcan-romulan reunification is the vulcans leaving the federation and uniting with the romulans- and he has no problem with such an outcome.
You are, again, over-stating your case. You are, after all, talking about the eminently logical Mister Spock, who can speak in perfect serenity about his own imminent death when discussing a given situation's potential outcomes. Spock, being the frank person that he is, simply answers the question of how Vulcan and Romulus might reunite by listing a number of possible scenarios. That he includes a one scenario -- that one of the ways in which Vulcan might reunite with Romulus is through secession from the Federation -- in such a way indicates anything about what he actually advocates about the future of Vulcan's status within the Federation.
There was nothing theoretical about Spock's words in RBoE.
His words about the manner in which Vulcan/Romulan unification might occur is
completely hypothetical.
This is the exchange to which you are referring. From page 221-222 of
Rough Beasts of Empire:
David R. George III said:
"Do you really believe there's any way that the Romulan people could reunify with the Vulcans?" Slask said. "Especially now, with Romulus a part of the Typhon Pact? How could that possibly work?"
"It might not be accomplished easily, but that does not make it unworthy of pursuit," Spock said. "There are several practical ways in which such a reunification could take place. Both Romulus and Vulcan could withdraw from their respective allegiances, or they could spur détente, or even entente, between the Khitomer Accord nations and those of the Typhon Pact."
In other words, he cites Vulcan secession as
one scenario. He also cites Vulcan's continued membership in the Federation as another.
And, mind you, this conversation occurs in the context of him and Slask faking a conversation in a public locale in order to allow Slask to send a secret message to the Federation President.
Spock put his actions behind his words. For decades, all he's done is be on Romulus, tirelessly trying to advance the reunification cause,
Yes. But that does not mean that his speculations about ways in which unification might occur indicate he wants Vulcan to secede.
As Spock himself said in the TOS episode "That Which Survives:"
SCOTTY: What you’re saying is, the planet didn’t blow up, and the captain and the others—they’re still alive!
SPOCK: Please, Mister Scott. Restrain your leaps of illogic. I have said nothing. I was merely speculating.
instead of advancing federation interests elsewhere.
Actually, Spock's been popping up all over the quadrant in the novels. He's able to come and go from Romulus periodically. And he believes he
is promoting Federation interests by promoting unification, as indicated by his belief that such an event would spur peace between the Federation and the Romulans.
In RBoE, Spock specifically said the vulcan-romulan reunification he worked so hard for was quite likely to be achieved by vulcan seceding from the federation
False. As I demonstrated with the quote above, he merely lists that as one possibility, and says nothing about probabilities.
* * *
As for all this speculation that Starfleet would have covered up Picard's assimilation into Locutus:
There is no evidence of this whatsoever. Further, the VOY duology
Homecoming/The Farther Shore establishes that shortly after the Battle of Wolf 359, one of the victims' family members issued what was known as the Borg Entreaty, calling upon the Federation government to suspend habeas corpus and due process rights for Federation citizens when Borg activity or assimilation are suspected. It's unlikely a civilian would do so if no one outside of Starfleet knew that the Borg had assimilated Picard into Locutus.