I think it's a pure numbers game. That's what would make them change their mind and continue with
Picard more than anything else. They're fixated on having five Star Trek series to fill out the year so people who are only subscribed to Paramount+ because of Star Trek won't cancel their subscriptions during off-months.
If they had a new series in the works that was
ready to replace
Picard, something would've been announced or leaked by now (unless it's an extension of PIC). A casting call, something.
Section 31 is in limbo, despite what they say. If
Starfleet Academy was ready to go forward, we would've heard something by now. I think they don't have anything else. I think they're
trying to get something else, but they're not there yet. So if they have nothing to replace
Picard with, they can't replace something with nothing.
Kate Mulgrew is open to paying live-action Janeway again, so maybe the replacement series would be
Star Trek: Janeway. But it doesn't sound like anything concrete.
If the SFA series is a spin-off from
Discovery, I don't know. I hope they either give those cadets a lot more development or they're different cadets. I don't think the ones we saw on DSC can carry a series. "All Is Possible" was a good Tilly episode, but I don't walk away from the episode thinking, "I want to see more of those cadets!" They were fine for an episode. A series is something else.
I think if it's not
Picard, then it's going to essentially be
Picard by another name: a spin-off with a mix of TNG/DS9/VOY Characters, PIC Characters, and New Characters. In which case, announcing what the series will be would spoil something from PIC Season 3.
EDITED TO ADD: I'll eat this entire post if I turn out to be wrong.
