Section 31’s plan (S7 spoilers)

[Captrek]

I’d love to be a spider under the table at the Section 31 meeting when they decided to greenlight their genocidal plan.

The Vorta and Jem’Hadar are conducting a war on behalf of the Founders, with the goal of conquering the Alpha Quadrant for the Founders to rule. The Founders have minimal direct involvement in the conduct of the war; their role consists mostly of setting the goals and broad strategies for the war.

Our plan: introduce a virus into the Great Link so that the Founders get sick and die.

There are several possibilities for what might happen next.

Best case scenario: the Vorta and Jem’Hadar, their gods being dead, decide they have no more purpose in life. They retire to Florida and/or commit suicide, the Alpha Quadrant powers are stabilized, and the Gamma Quadrant becomes an anarchic free-for-all rife with opportunity and peril.

Worst case scenario: the Vorta and Jem’Hadar, their gods being dead, decide (or are so instructed by the Founders prior to their death) that they have no more purpose in life except revenge. The war of conquest becomes a war of annihilation, with the goal of exterminating all solids indigenous to the AQ.

How did S31 decide that Scenario #1 was so likely, and Scenario #2 so unlikely, that this plan makes sense?

 

[flemm]

One could ask the same question about Enabran Tain's plan to wipe out the Founders in season three. Whatever Admiral is in contact with Sisko orders him to remain at DS9 because if Tain succeeds "the Jem Hadar are going to come screaming out of the wormhole looking for revenge," or words to that effect.

My memory is not perfectly clear on this point, but I seem to recall that Odo was infected by Section 31 during his medical examination on earth during Homefront, so season 4. Basically the virus was Section 31's more elegant solution of accomplishing the same thing that Tain was attempting.

More elegant because it would be harder to identify who was at fault, and therefore less likely that the Jem Hadar would seek revenge. But that would certainly still be a possibility.

What it comes down to is that Tain and Section 31 are not really thinking all that rationally, or at least not as much as they would like to believe. It is really a kind of meglomania and paranoia that is motivating them. In the case of Tain this is especially clear because we get to know his character, while with 31 the personalities at work are left in the shadows. But it seems likely that some of the same psychology is at work. At least in the case of 31, the war had already begun, whereas Tain was launching a first strike.

 

[apenpaap]

I think if they had succeeded, the Vorta would've hidden it from the Jem'hadar and other Dominion subjects and started ruling on their own, telling everyone else it was the Founders's decision. I wonder though how they would decide who gets to be in charge. Perhaps they'd just name Weyoun (he seemed like the überVorta) as their leader. Perhaps they'd make decisions by vote. Perhaps several different Vorta would name themselves leader and civil war would break out.

 

[Rush Limborg]

^Exactly.

The Vorta are nothing if not slimy. Recall Keevan ("Rocks and Shoals"), who was willing to surrender to Sisko, and potentially give up secrets, rather than die serving the Founders to the end.

I think it's safe to say that, once the Founders are dead, the Vorta would, after the proper period of mourning, rise to rule the Dominion.

But of course, without the genius of the Founders, they'd disolve into petty squabbling over who's the best leader.

Director Sloan is a genius.

To some, he's an evil genius. To others, a heroic genius.

But he's a genius nonetheless. After all...only a genius would "pull the wool" over the genetically enhanced Julian Bashir's eyes "so completely".

 

[Jono]

The Founders for the most part don't deal with the Vorta or the Jem'Hadar. To most of the Dominion the Founders are nothing more than myth and story. It is very possible that save for the Vorta on the homeworld and high placed ones like Weyoun during the war that 99% of the Dominion would have no idea they are gone.

Would it even matter if they are gone? The Vorta seem to do most of the work running things anyway, they would probably just continue as they have for thousands of years. The Jem'Hadar would continue to fight and die for their "gods", its not like the Founders do moral building tours for the Jem'Hadar to notice they are gone.

In that light S31s plan doesn't seem that great. Would it end the war? Save for Odo's influence that they didn't plan on, it would not have ended the war. At best what it would do is end the threat of Changeling infiltration, which at the time the virus was let loose was the main threat to the Federation. S31 might have banked on a scenario where the war was still 5 - 10 years away and that's why they went for a plan that took 3 years to have any impact.

 

[Harvey]

The Jem'Hadar might fight to the death, but without the Founders' leadership, you wouldn't have any more clones, nor any more White. They'd die off rather quickly. A bloody end to the war, but an end to the war (and a quick end) nonetheless.

 

[Captrek]

The Jem'Hadar might fight to the death, but without the Founders' leadership, you wouldn't have any more clones, nor any more White.

I don’t think that’s true. I don’t recall whether the series (let alone other canon) ever got into the details of how the cloning and White production facilities worked, but I always thought they were operated by the Vorta under instructions from the Founders, and didn’t necessarily require the presence of a Founder to keep them operational. Even if that’s not the case, the Founders could certainly make it the case before they die, if they want their minions to carry on and exact revenge.

A bloody end to the war, but an end to the war (and a quick end) nonetheless.

“Bloody” is an understatement. To use a present-day analogy, it’s like escalating a conventional war into a nuclear one. If the Dominion’s goal changed from conquest to annihilation, and they didn’t have to worry about retaliation because everything that mattered to them had already been destroyed, they could kill by the billions, if not trillions. Every banned weapon that’s described in Star Trek as being used only by psychos because they’re too dangerous would be on the table for a Dominion carrying out the Founders’ last command to avenge them.

 

[Rush Limborg]

The Founders for the most part don't deal with the Vorta or the Jem'Hadar. To most of the Dominion the Founders are nothing more than myth and story. It is very possible that save for the Vorta on the homeworld and high placed ones like Weyoun during the war that 99% of the Dominion would have no idea they are gone.

Would it even matter if they are gone? The Vorta seem to do most of the work running things anyway, they would probably just continue as they have for thousands of years. The Jem'Hadar would continue to fight and die for their "gods", its not like the Founders do moral building tours for the Jem'Hadar to notice they are gone.

In that light S31s plan doesn't seem that great. Would it end the war? Save for Odo's influence that they didn't plan on, it would not have ended the war. At best what it would do is end the threat of Changeling infiltration, which at the time the virus was let loose was the main threat to the Federation. S31 might have banked on a scenario where the war was still 5 - 10 years away and that's why they went for a plan that took 3 years to have any impact.

Well, considering Sloan being twenty steps ahead of Bashir in "Inter Arna...", I wouldn't call it impossible that they didn't plan on Odo's influence....

 

[Timo]

Why would they need Odo? They could quite plausibly blackmail the Founders directly, by telling them S31 had the cure and only waited for the Dominion's word of surrender.

Or probably not very directly, they are not the type. But they wouldn't need Odo specifically.

And anything (and probably everything) Sloan "told" Bashir and O'Brien in "Extreme Measures" can safely be assumed to be untrue...

Timo Saloniemi

 

[Rush Limborg]

^Such as "I can't let you have the cure"?

Honestly...Considering how easily Sloan was captured, I can't help but wonder if it was all a ploy on his part to fake his death, for whatever reason....

 

[Lt.Cmdr.LaForge]

The Vorta and Jem hadar were incapable of funtioning without the guidance of the founders, they were genetically programmed that way. The only 'capable' vorta we ever meet is weyoun, but again, he "lives purely to serve the founders".

Outcome 1, as you put it, was pretty much the only solution that was likely to happen should the plan have taken full effect. (imo ofc)

 

[Rush Limborg]

Here's another goodie:

With all the Founders infected, it becomes progressively harder and harder for them to infiltrate the ranks of their enemies. After all, the disease makes it harder and harder for them to retain their shape--makes them all flaky and...(shudders)

As it were...that's my belief as to why Section 31 had created the virus in the first place. One might conjecture that after the incidents on Earth in "Homefront" and "Paradise Lost"...

 

[Jono]

^ Actually it would seem that the plan was in the works well before "Homefront" given that was when Bashir believed Odo was first infected. It could be the bombing at Antwerp moved the timetable of the operation forward since S31 suddenly had an all access pass to Odo while he was a Starfleet Medical. That's assuming that S31 had nothing to do with the bombing in Antwerp, which I'm not sure they did not.

 

[Timo]

It could be the bombing at Antwerp moved the timetable of the operation forward since S31 suddenly had an all access pass to Odo while he was a Starfleet Medical.

Or it could be that the bombing was orchestrated with that exact outcome in mind.

After all, our only proof that the Founders were in any way involved in the bombing comes from a piece of surveillance video that anybody could have doctored. Why wouldn't this be done, by Leyton's cabal or by the cabal behind the bioweapon (which I assume were two completely different efforts)? The former would merely be delighted to get rid of a few peacemongers and, more importantly, to get their respective nations very, very angry. The latter would doubly enjoy both aspects: there'd be dead Romulans there (a frequent cause of mirth for S31), and there'd be angry Romulans, willing to help in the war.

Timo Saloniemi

 

[Jono]

^ I've considered that before. They actually wouldn't need to doctor the tape given we've seen Leyton capable of producing a fake Changeling effect with Sisko's blood it isn't a stretch to believe that the same couldn't be done to that pot plant or whatever they saw on the tape. There would be no Founder remains because a Founder was never there and no one would ever be able to detect any tampering with the recording because there was none.

 

[Timo]

One might wonder what the Changeling was doing there in the first place, assuming the attack was genuine. Why would it need to be there? To ensure that key victims would arrive before the bomb went off? There was some arriving or departing going on in that tape, to be sure. But it seems a bit crude for a Founder to act as the bomb's detonator. Surely a techno-gadget could have achieved the same.

The Founder couldn't have been much of an observer, either, since it left before observing the carnage. Perhaps it would have spied on the meeting, to decide whether to bomb or not? Doesn't sound likely, though. If the meeting was worth bombing, the Founders would have needed to know that in advance, in order to bring the bomb to the room. And if so, why bother listening to the talkers?

An intriguing possibility is that the Founder literally sat on the bomb, in order to hide it from sensors and other scrutiny. Founders are masters at fooling sensors, after all. But the tape sort of suggests that the explosive center was elsewhere.

Timo Saloniemi

 

[Rush Limborg]

Honestly?

I think this theory that, somehow, Section 31 "faked" the changeling attack is foolish--especially considering all the scenes in "Homefront" and "Paradise Lost" that show, without any question, actual changelings.

The Leyton-changeling that becomes a bird, for one.

The O'Brien-changeling that gloats to Sisko, for another.

 

[Jono]

One might wonder what the Changeling was doing there in the first place, assuming the attack was genuine. Why would it need to be there?

The Founder's might have decided that allowing themselves to be "caught in the act" would serve them more than it would hinder them. As you said before revealing itself gives the Feds and Roms an otherside force to blame and bond over. It might have been decided that by showing they were around the fear and panic on Earth would offset this. They might have also come to a conclusion that by flaunting their presence it would discourage the Romulans from trusting the Federation's ability to protect its dignitaries during Federation held meetings, give them sometime new to argue over.

Plus given what the O'Brien changeling said fear was one of their weapons. Revealing their presence causes fear and chaos.

Honestly?

I think this theory that, somehow, Section 31 "faked" the changeling attack is foolish--especially considering all the scenes in "Homefront" and "Paradise Lost" that show, without any question, actual changelings.

The Leyton-changeling that becomes a bird, for one.

The O'Brien-changeling that gloats to Sisko, for another.

If you know Changelings are around or highly suspect it, framing them makes sense. If S31 is really looking out for the Federation it must not have pleased them that Starfleet and the Federation government were pretty much collectively sticking their heads in the sand when it came to infiltration, particularly regarding Earth. So they blow up a meeting, frame Changelings, they get Odo to visit for their virus plan and they also get the Federation to start doing something about the Changeling threat.

As I said above about fear being a weapon of the infiltrators it wouldn't matter to them who committed the bombing. It was credited to them and the fear ball started to roll and they got behind it and pushed it along.

 

[Rush Limborg]

Even if you accept that line of reasoning--nonetheless, Section 31 would be completely foolish to fake an attack. After all, mass panic is a serious threat to peace and stability--and it very well runs a high risk of dissolving into total chaos.

Thus, it makes more sense that the Founders reall did do it--they wanted the UFP to collapse--in this case, mass panic would suffice.


And again...I strongly believe that 31's core reason for creating the virus--more than just "fighting the enemy"--was dealing with changeling infiltrators.

Even if the Vorta and Jem'Hadar resolve to continue the fight--even so, there will not ever be the risk of a bunch of undercover Founders posing as friends and family....

 

[Timo]

Even if you accept that line of reasoning--nonetheless, Section 31 would be completely foolish to fake an attack. After all, mass panic is a serious threat to peace and stability--and it very well runs a high risk of dissolving into total chaos.

Yet it has been a standard tool for rulers in our recorded history - so much in fact that whenever an attack or even an accident takes place, it is one of the first things to be speculated upon. And virtually never has the result been counterproductive chaos. Productive chaos, perhaps, but virtually never one that would endanger the position of power of the rulers.

As for whether S31 created the bioweapon, or whether Starfleet did, remains unclear. The dying Sloan accepting guilt for S31 doesn't mean squat. Who knows, perhaps Starfleet developed the weapon for one purpose, and S31 put it to another?

Timo Saloniemi