Post your Box Office Predictions

[Jackson_Roykirk]

Sharr Khan said:
...Star Trek is in the end just like any other made-up universe be it Tolkien or Trek what matters is how you sell it. Speaking of Tolkien there is absolutely no reason a Star Trek movie can't be as popular as a LOTRs film. Unless you're telling me there are just that many more Tolkien fans then Trek fans...
Sharr

That is very true about the Tolkien Fans. I remember back in the late 70's when Tolkien's books were enjoying a sort of "renaissance" in popularity, and all the geeky kids (including me) were discovering them for the first time. I went to the movies to see the animated "The Hobbit" with my geeky friends in 1977 and the Lord of the Rings animated films which later followed.

It wasn't "cool" to be a Tolkien fan, but that didn't stop millions from seeing the recent LOTR movies. Of course one could argue that 25 years had passed between then and the first Peter Jackson LOTR film. But I contend that most of the people who saw those recent films remember us geeks back in the day.

(BTW don't get me wrong -- I wasn't a total loser geek in jr. high school. I was well-liked by the "cool" people, too -- at least that's what my mommy kept telling me )

 

[Vektor]

CaptainDonovin said:
One thing will be how many non-Trek movie goers will go see it, personally I have to think as soon as they see that it's a Trek movie they will not go see it even if the film has Cruise or Crowe, or some other 'A-list' actor/actress.

I have to say it will make somewhere in the neighborhood of what First Contact took in, maybe a little more.

I honestly don’t think anti-Trek sentiment runs that deep. I think a lot of people hold a rather condescending opinion of Trek and its fans, but if the previews and trailers and general buzz are all good leading up to its release, I think most people will at least give it a shot, especially if it has a couple of A-listers who wouldn’t normally attach themselves to something geeky and stupid and not worth seeing.

If anything, I think the biggest problem this movie will face is reluctant word-of-mouth. What I mean by that is, even if the movie is fantastically good, the people who do see it may be reluctant to recommend a Star Trek movie to their friends and coworkers. That’s where the TV commercials touting it as “the number one film in America” and that kind of thing may be crucial to its long-term profitability.

 

[James Bond]

Jackson_Roykirk said:

Sec31Mike said:
$250 Mil, so some people put this in league with LOTR, Spider-Man, X-Men. Whoever thinks that is deluded. I'll stick with my original prediction of $85 Mil Worldwide total gross.

LOTR ROTK made over 1 Billion (that's with a "B") dollars worldwide at the box office. It made $230,000,000 worldwide on its opening weekend. Spiderman 1 made $820,000,000 total worldwide and Spiderman 3 made about $890,000,000 total worldwide. If you are talking U.S. only, ROTK made about $340,000,000; Spiderman 1 made $400,000,000; and Spiderman 3 made $335,000,000.

I don't think it is delusional to think ST:XI could make $250,000,000 total worldwide at the box office.

Great post. Quite frankly, I think it's delusional to think that Star Trek will only make $85,000,000 world-wide.

 

[Sec31Mike]

^^^
How many Quatloo's is that?

 

[seigezunt]

85 million quatloos for the newcomer!

 

[Lumen]

Zed.P.M. said:

Jackson_Roykirk said:

Sec31Mike said:
$250 Mil, so some people put this in league with LOTR, Spider-Man, X-Men. Whoever thinks that is deluded. I'll stick with my original prediction of $85 Mil Worldwide total gross.

LOTR ROTK made over 1 Billion (that's with a "B") dollars worldwide at the box office. It made $230,000,000 worldwide on its opening weekend. Spiderman 1 made $820,000,000 total worldwide and Spiderman 3 made about $890,000,000 total worldwide. If you are talking U.S. only, ROTK made about $340,000,000; Spiderman 1 made $400,000,000; and Spiderman 3 made $335,000,000.

I don't think it is delusional to think ST:XI could make $250,000,000 total worldwide at the box office.

Great post. Quite frankly, I think it's delusional to think that Star Trek will only make $85,000,000 world-wide.

That's a lot less than both Insurrection and First Contact made, and those films premiered a long time ago.

Even a half-decent outing should be able to scrape together $150 million worldwide.

 

[Franklin]

Seems like a fair number of pessimistic predictions out there.

If it doesn't do $200 million plus domestically, it won't even end up as financially popular as STMP or TVH were after controlling for inflation. Can't believe that, given XI will have even more buzz and more hype than STMP or especially TVH. And, it's not like STMP was even considered a fantastic movie at the time (not to debate the merits here, but I think you know what I mean).

During the time Bond movies and TOS movies ran, I think TOS movies did a bit better. Yet, "Casino Royale" brought in almost a half a billion dollars world-wide in 2005. And, that franchise wasn't basically in hiatis for 39 years (last we saw TOS-era Trek). The new Bond movie is proof that if you can stay true to the core and yet play to wider audience sensibilities, anything is possible.
And, I think there's a lot more pent up energy for his film than there was for a new Bond movie.

 

[Lumen]

A sequel to this film might to $200 million plus, but a late-season film that doesn't attract a lot of kids isn't going to that kind of business, especially one that's starting out a series of films. Batman Begins is the model this film ought to follow.

As for buzz, TMP had a decade of growing interest for Trek behind, and TVH was part of an established series of movies. This film is established in name only -- the style, story and cast have yet to be branded so the public hasn't caught on, and it will take at least one film for them to catch on.

Batman Begins cost $150 million and made $205 million domestically. I'm hoping for a slightly smaller budget but only an insignificantly smaller domestic box office. Comic book films are, at this point, the closest behaviour model we have for something like this. Bond is an entirely different animal.

 

[cardinal biggles]

I think trying to make these sorts of predictions is very premature. As Lumen pointed out, we have no idea what the story is, who's cast (apart from Quinto & Nimoy), what it'll look like. After the trailers start building buzz, it should be easier to start making some estimates.

 

[Vektor]

Lumen said:
Batman Begins cost $150 million and made $205 million domestically. I'm hoping for a slightly smaller budget but only an insignificantly smaller domestic box office. Comic book films are, at this point, the closest behaviour model we have for something like this. Bond is an entirely different animal.

Not necessarily. The Bond films had strayed pretty far into comic book territory themselves until Casino Royale came along and gave the franchise some much needed grounding in maturity and gritty realism. My gut feeling is that Abrams is probably going to follow the Casino Royale model more so than Batman Begins.

 

[Jack Bauer]

Too early to tell but I'll throw out 175 million domestically.

 

[StarMan]

More than Nemesis.

Oh, and it won't come #2 in the box office as Nemesis did to Maid In Manhattan.

*shudder*

 

[Michael Chris]

I'll guess $90 million domestic, with a total of $150 million worldwide.

 

[LoneStranger]

30m first weekend
120m US Gross
225m Worldwide

I have a feeling it won't drop too much on the second week. A lot of people will be turned off because it's a Star Trek movie, but after they hear that it's not overly nerdish, they'll give it a try.

 

[Dale]

It will not be number one at the US box office.
It will have a huge fall-off in the second week.
It will be on DVD by Summer 2008.
People will say Star Trek is dead.
Star Trek will, however, fail to die.

 

[Vektor]

dalehoppert said:
It will be on DVD by Summer 2008.

That will be a neat trick considering it won't even be released in theaters until Christmas 2008.

 

[Dale]

Vektor said:

dalehoppert said:
It will be on DVD by Summer 2008.

That will be a neat trick considering it won't even be released in theaters until Christmas 2008.

OK big duh on me... 2009...

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Somewhere around 250-275 million total, domestic and international.

The DVD sales will make a boatload of money.

 

[Bad Atom]

Here's a concrete fact for you - this film WILL make $7. (That's assuming I go to the matinee.)

 

[Jack Bauer]

One hundred billion dollars. You heard it here first. --


signed the Fairy of Never Never Will Be Land.