Post your Box Office Predictions

[Woulfe]

Franklin said:

Sec31Mike said:
$250 Mil, so some people put this in league with LOTR, Spider-Man, X-Men. Whoever thinks that is deluded. I'll stick with my original prediction of $85 Mil Worldwide total gross.

If it grosses only $85 million world-wide, given its budget will probably be that or more, Abrams would never work in Hollywood again and a lot of Paramount execs would be out on their asses. It'd be so bad, books would be written about the flop. It'd be "Waterworld" and "Ishtar" all over again.
Trek fans will start screaming, "We want Berman! Bring back Berman!" In this environment, a smugly satisfied with what happened Brent Spiner produces a treatment he's been sitting on for "Star Trek XII". It'll be in theaters 2012.

Then THAT will bomb big time, and we'll have to go through this mess all over again by going back to TOS.....

It'll be a neverending cycle !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

- W -
* Think Vader saying that last line *

 

[nostradamus]

I am not sure this project can attract enough non Star Trek fans.

After all to them it is still the same old nerdy fanwank that is only enjoyed by D&D players who life in their parents basement and who never get a girlfriend.

Also I am not sure if the fans alone can carry this.

So my guess is that Star Trek XI will gross somewhere between IX and X, a little more it Shatner is on board.

In the end of the day it will be a failure comercially and a winner artistically.

There wont be a Trek XII until the franchise is successfully revived as a weekly TV show. And to do so it has to be cool with the kids and not cool with me.

That makes Star Treks future the exact opposite of a win win situation.

I keep enjoying the fanfilms if everything else fails.

 

[Woulfe]

^ TV series ain't gonna happen as long as les Moonves is alive, so much for that prediction.

- W -
* Unless you think Les is gonna get bumpped off soon *

 

[Lumen]

Jackson_Roykirk said:

Sec31Mike said:
$250 Mil, so some people put this in league with LOTR, Spider-Man, X-Men. Whoever thinks that is deluded. I'll stick with my original prediction of $85 Mil Worldwide total gross.

LOTR ROTK made over 1 Billion (that's with a "B") dollars worldwide at the box office. It made $230,000,000 worldwide on its opening weekend. Spiderman 1 made $820,000,000 total worldwide and Spiderman 3 made about $890,000,000 total worldwide. If you are talking U.S. only, ROTK made about $340,000,000; Spiderman 1 made $400,000,000; and Spiderman 3 made $335,000,000.

I don't think it is delusional to think ST:XI could make $250,000,000 total worldwide at the box office.

Yeah, I was gonna say... $250 million isn't in league with LOTR or Spider-man. Nice to see someone set Sec31Mike straight about his facts. :thumbsup:

 

[jhouston6]

With Nimoy on board and possibly shatner in a very tight girtle I would say that it will depend upon what othert movies open that week. If weak box office competition, I would guess around 29 million opening weekend box office. If strong cometition it could earn as little as 20 million opening weekend. I woulod guess final domestic gross to be around 90-150 million.

 

[Vektor]

A lot depends on the advertising campaign. Yes, Trek has a high, unfavorable Geek Quotient, but if they get a couple of A-listers in supporting roles and the trailers and TV commercials make it look freakin’ cool, and maybe if they emphasize the “under new management” factor, it could become the must-see movie of the holiday season. If the movie is actually good and has a lot of re-watchability, it could make tons of money.

Whatever stigma Trek currently has could disappear over night if properly handled.

 

[Admiral2]

It will make as much profit as Lindsay Lohan's latest masterpiece.

 

[Sharr Khan]

Vektor said:
A lot depends on the advertising campaign. Yes, Trek has a high, unfavorable Geek Quotient, but if they get a couple of A-listers in supporting roles and the trailers and TV commercials make it look freakin’ cool, and maybe if they emphasize the “under new management” factor, it could become the must-see movie of the holiday season. If the movie is actually good and has a lot of re-watchability, it could make tons of money.

Whatever stigma Trek currently has could disappear over night if properly handled.

I agree.
What I find more curious, those who desperately wish to cling to this stigma as though it makes them somehow special. That and they seem to love reveling in their own low expectations...

Star Trek could be epic (and mainstream even) and there is no reason it shouldn't be either.

Sharr

 

[Aragorn]

Well the people on the internet who have proclaimed their hate about everything regarding this movie and going to see it at least 10-15 times each to tell us how right they were about their self-fulfilling prophecy, so that's like $40 million right there.

 

[jonnyskywatcher]

I'm guessing 120-140 dollars domestic, and over 200 worldwide. I don't think that any stigma will have an effect on this film because people who aren't fans will want to see the new Trek. The sequel will have a harder time getting people who aren't fans to see it, because everyone will know what to expect.

 

[Stardate]

This is way to early to predict they have only cast three actors for XI movie. Depends who is villain and federation captain. If rumor is true on Russel Crowe is the villain and Tom Cruise the federation captain that would raise XI movie profile allot. I´m guessing going over 200m mark domestic would be great achievement. Regarding international gross mark again depends f.e. if they would hire popular African actress for Uhura part and Scotsman for Scotty plus that they have already casted a native born Russian for Chekov part. All off this combined with great story, music and visual effects would help XI movie make a least 200m mark. Overall 400 MILLION

 

[Jackson_Roykirk]

I wouldn't be surprised if they hired a semi-popular Brit to play Kirk -- one who can do a damn good American Accent. (...and I mean semi-popular in the U.K. -- most likely unknown in the U.S.). That would definitely help the worldwide box office.

 

[Balthier the Great]

Sharr Khan said:

Vektor said:
A lot depends on the advertising campaign. Yes, Trek has a high, unfavorable Geek Quotient, but if they get a couple of A-listers in supporting roles and the trailers and TV commercials make it look freakin’ cool, and maybe if they emphasize the “under new management” factor, it could become the must-see movie of the holiday season. If the movie is actually good and has a lot of re-watchability, it could make tons of money.

Whatever stigma Trek currently has could disappear over night if properly handled.

I agree.
What I find more curious, those who desperately wish to cling to this stigma as though it makes them somehow special. That and they seem to love reveling in their own low expectations...

Star Trek could be epic (and mainstream even) and there is no reason it shouldn't be either.

Sharr

I don't see why pointing out the obvious is wishing for a stigma. It just so happens that in popular culture, Trek is something nerds obsess over. Most under 30's wouldn't be interested because of that. But any nerdishness would vanish if everybody who sees the film opening week comes out saying "this is the coolest thing I've ever seen!".

I wouldn't have expected Serenity to get as big of an audience either. But I had several people i worked with (none geeks BTW) tell me how cool it is. Quality will make or break this thing.

 

[PowderedToastMan]

a box office prediction right now is completely pointless. However, it is clear they are hoping this will be big. Bigger than any recent trek film and on a whole different level. Something closer to say Batman Begins or stuff like that.

One of the big issues is if they can find a way to make it work better overseas than trek has in the past. The brand is not that big in non english speaking markets, especially asia. Germany is the one exception to this rule.

Look at films like MI3 or Casino Royale and they do much better overseas vs. domestic.

It seems to me the only way to make that happen would be to have some bankable brand name stars (and Nimoy and Shat dont count here) in the film. I expect the villain to be such a name...and at least one other big cameo name. But I would still be surprised if the film did better overseas than domestic, but to even come to parity would be a stop forward for trek

 

[Jackson_Roykirk]

PowderedToastMan said:
a box office prediction right now is completely pointless. However, it is clear they are hoping this will be big.

Point Taken.

However, I'm sure the bean-counters at Paramount already have a target number in mind. I bet we aren't the only ones speculating as to the box office gross.

 

[Sharr Khan]

I don't see why pointing out the obvious is wishing for a stigma.

because, its not a given. Many people around here treat it as if Trek *needs* to be exclusive to its niche to be good and that's just not so.

Star Trek is in the end just like any other made-up universe be it Tolkien or Trek what matters is how you sell it. Speaking of Tolkien there is absolutely no reason a Star Trek movie can't be as popular as a LOTRs film. Unless you're telling me there are just that many more Tolkien fans then Trek fans...

If Serenity can get none nerds even a bit interested in it - Trek can do bigger and better.

Sharr

 

[PowderedToastMan]

Jackson_Roykirk said:

PowderedToastMan said:
a box office prediction right now is completely pointless. However, it is clear they are hoping this will be big.

Point Taken.

However, I'm sure the bean-counters at Paramount already have a target number in mind. I bet we aren't the only ones speculating as to the box office gross.

yes the bean counters are speculating, but they have seent the script, budget, casting and marketing plans.

my point was that at this point the most you can speculate is what those bean counters are hoping for...what kind of target they have. For that if i had to guess I would say $350 M world wide before home sales. But I hear the film guys throw words around like epic and maybe they are thinking even bigger...closer to Transformers numbers.

BO predictions are really only possible within a month before a film opens and you know the plot, stars, budget, marketing plan, etc.

 

[seigezunt]

my box office prediction is that I will indeed be at the local box office, picking up a ticket that ordered online for the first showing Dec. 25, 2008!!!

As to predictions about money and the life of the franchise, I'm not a betting man. I'm just hoping for a good movie. Even if it's the last TOS movie.

 

[CaptainDonovin]

One thing will be how many non-Trek movie goers will go see it, personally I have to think as soon as they see that it's a Trek movie they will not go see it even if the film has Cruise or Crowe, or some other 'A-list' actor/actress.

I have to say it will make somewhere in the neighborhood of what First Contact took in, maybe a little more.

 

[thumbtack]

91 trillion bazillion quadrillion dollars.