Post your Box Office Predictions

[Flake]

Post your guess for the North American box office gross, and if you want to the overseas gross.

I think:

$175 Million Domestic
$125 Million Overseas

$300 Million Worldwide.

Then in February 2009 when the gross is final we can come back and laugh at our rediculous predictions!

 

[Lord Garth]

I have no clue. Honestly. Transformers, for instance, made far more than I thought it would.

Ummmm... $100 million? That's my shot in the dark.

 

[Plum]

Opening weekend is all important these days (weirdly, that's Hollywoodland for ya!)... hoping for around $40, $45 Mil.

 

[Sec31Mike]

Opening weekend - $22-26 Mil
Total US gross - $52 Mil
Total US & Int - $85 Mil

I expected Transformers to be one of the years bug hits. Ii tried counting the FX people in Transformers and lost count after 300!.

 

[Flake]

Sec31Mike said:
Opening weekend - $22-26 Mil
Total US gross - $52 Mil
Total US & Int - $85 Mil

I expected Transformers to be one of the years bug hits. Ii tried counting the FX people in Transformers and lost count after 300!.

Ouch Paramount just lost a lot of money on that prediction, we will see how right or wrong you are in a year or so

 

[Lumen]

Sort of early to be guessing — no production budget, no advertising budget and, hell, no Kirk!

I guess that just makes it more fine.

I'm calling an ultimate box office ceiling of $200 million in the domestic box office and $150 million overseas. A film like this can't make much more than that, barring something really amazing.

I think it'll only get to around 60-75% that, between $120-150 million domestically, and $225-250 million worldwide.

Plum said:
Opening weekend is all important these days (weirdly, that's Hollywoodland for ya!)... hoping for around $40, $45 Mil.

Studios get the most out of ticket sales over the first weekend, but this film — despite the Fanboy Effect — can't have a low multiplier. It has to have legs and good word of mouth, because Star Trek just doesn't have the hype to be very front-loaded anymore (unless there's a precipitous drop after the first weekend, a la Nemesis, which we don't want).

 

[Plum]

^^^
Ooo, yes, precipitous droppings ... *avoids precipitous droppings*... yes indeedy. Good point.

 

[Balthier the Great]

umm, I'm figuring a fair run. Probably 2nd place opening week and maybe 1st for a few weeks beyond. I think it's actually going to be underrated at opening, just because the name Trek is somewhat associated with geekdom.

After the first weekend, the actual quality of the film is what matters. I'd expect this to be a good movie.

Just for reference HSX has the movie at about H$66, which I think is close to $66 million in American dollars. And that's with only teaser posters. $100 probably isn't out of line.
http://movies.hsx.com/servlet/SecurityDetail?symbol=TRK11

 

[number6]

The Box Office will be $0 because without the Stella Mudd the new film=FLOP!!

 

[Woulfe]

^ Well, we just gotta cross our fingers an click our heels and hope the there will be 101 cameos by everybody to the film to be a hit !
- W -
* Humor.... It is a difficult concept... *

 

[Borgminister]

I think it really depends on who is cast as Kirk, frankly.

That plus how effective the advertising campaign is.

If those two aspects are optimal, I'd say 100 million is not out of the question domestically.

And if good word of mouth gives it legs, maybe 150 million.

Won't cross my fingers yet, since I wouldn't be able to translate at the keyboard then...

 

[Trubinator]

I expect the net gross to be just barely above budget.

 

[Jon1701]

$223,500,348.50

And now....

How many beans in the jar?

 

[Cary L. Brown]

I predict that the opening weekend box-office receipts will exceed the total box office for all movies throughout the rest of history combined.

There will be rioting on the streets and people fight to the death to get the few tickets which are available. Scalpers will bring in tens of thousands of dollars for a prime "halfway up and in the middle" seat.

Bags of popcorn will sell for hundreds of dollars, and people who attempt to smuggle jujubees into the theater will be shot on sight.

Shortly after the opening weekend, the apocalypse will occur, too.

 

[Franklin]

STMP made just over $80 million domestically. Controlling for inflation in 2007 dollars, a similar domestic gross for XI would be $200 million to $225 million. That would also about equal the inflation-controlled domestic gross of TVH.

So, assuming the best for the film (that is, it DOESN'T SUCK WIND), there's no reason why it shouldn't be able to reach $250 million domestically.

 

[Sec31Mike]

$250 Mil, so some people put this in league with LOTR, Spider-Man, X-Men. Whoever thinks that is deluded. I'll stick with my original prediction of $85 Mil Worldwide total gross.

 

[Jackson_Roykirk]

jon1701 said:
$223,500,348.50

And now....

How many beans in the jar?

Assuming the jar is 4 inches deep....1123

As for the movie...I say somewhere between Harry Potter 5 (so far) and Pirates of the Caribbean 3, so about $282,000,000 domestically and $750,000,000 world wide total. I'm an optimist.

 

[Ryan Thomas Riddle]

I think this movie is going to do extremely well, whatever that dollar amount may be.

 

[Franklin]

Sec31Mike said:
$250 Mil, so some people put this in league with LOTR, Spider-Man, X-Men. Whoever thinks that is deluded. I'll stick with my original prediction of $85 Mil Worldwide total gross.

If it grosses only $85 million world-wide, given its budget will probably be that or more, Abrams would never work in Hollywood again and a lot of Paramount execs would be out on their asses. It'd be so bad, books would be written about the flop. It'd be "Waterworld" and "Ishtar" all over again.
Trek fans will start screaming, "We want Berman! Bring back Berman!" In this environment, a smugly satisfied with what happened Brent Spiner produces a treatment he's been sitting on for "Star Trek XII". It'll be in theaters 2012.

 

[Jackson_Roykirk]

Sec31Mike said:
$250 Mil, so some people put this in league with LOTR, Spider-Man, X-Men. Whoever thinks that is deluded. I'll stick with my original prediction of $85 Mil Worldwide total gross.

LOTR ROTK made over 1 Billion (that's with a "B") dollars worldwide at the box office. It made $230,000,000 worldwide on its opening weekend. Spiderman 1 made $820,000,000 total worldwide and Spiderman 3 made about $890,000,000 total worldwide. If you are talking U.S. only, ROTK made about $340,000,000; Spiderman 1 made $400,000,000; and Spiderman 3 made $335,000,000.

I don't think it is delusional to think ST:XI could make $250,000,000 total worldwide at the box office.