Neilson Ratings: 6 years on, the joke isn't funny anymore

[Bob The Skutter]

There have been studies, I'm guessing only relevant to the UK, which suggest even with a DVR views still watch around 30% of the adverts,

From what I've seen, ad viewing rates in America for TiVO et al are much lower than that. Seems like that's a change from what used to be reported, so maybe ad viewing rates go down as people become used to DVRs. Anyway, the advertisers refuse to pay more for DVR viewing and if people were watching ads, the networks would have a better argument for making them pay up. But that's not happening.

I'm not entirely certain how they reached that number, I mean I know personally I fast forward nearly 100% of the time, and the only time I watch live is when it's on HD because I don't have a HD DVR yet. But if an ad catches my eye while I'm fast forwarding I will rewind and watch it, and I know I'm not the only one, I know at least 2 others who do too.
Also, they say people look for, and stop when I see the sponsor bumper, so perhaps they're counting those too.
I know there have been a couple of attempts to get round advert skipping, by having ads that are just a block of text on the screen for 30 seconds, so even if you're fast forwarding you can read the block of text.

I know it's not the same over there, but over here there have been subscription free DVRs for some time now. They don't offer the same service as Tivo and the like but they are better than VCRs, offering series/daily/weekly record, accurate recording capabilities and dual channel recording. Perhaps they'll happen over there once Digital Switch over is complete?

 

[bigdaddy]

DVR recorders are now as common as VCRs, and simply buying the DVD box set and marathoning it is also an even more viable option than it used to be.

Really? Everyone I know has at least VCR, and NO ONE I know has a DVR.

According to an article I read, they are estimating about 30% of homes have a DVR.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081123...ching_later;_ylt=AlmHFqRtyBRU6zjqlT2qT.5xFb8C

So less than a third is everyone?

It's like two years ago when EVERYONE had an HD TV, back then the guess was 12% of homes.

40% of the country doesn't have cable according to something last year, you think those 40% have DVR and HD TVs?

 

[ATimson]

Blergh, don't expect iTunes to save the show. What other paid Internet viewing venues are there that do any significant business? Hulu?

Hulu doesn't charge, last I checked, they just show ads. There's also Amazon and the Xbox Marketplace, but I don't know what numbers they're getting.

 

[Starbreaker]

I've just about given up on TV. I quit watching shows unless they got a full season order several years ago. I'm tired of seeing shows that I like get canned. These offshore sites streaming video is hurting television, and there's really nothing that can be done about it now if it hasn't already been done.

 

[John Picard]

Really? Everyone I know has at least VCR, and NO ONE I know has a DVR.

According to an article I read, they are estimating about 30% of homes have a DVR.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081123...ching_later;_ylt=AlmHFqRtyBRU6zjqlT2qT.5xFb8C

So less than a third is everyone?

It's like two years ago when EVERYONE had an HD TV, back then the guess was 12% of homes.

40% of the country doesn't have cable according to something last year, you think those 40% have DVR and HD TVs?

Hell, I still watch TV with an old 27" cathode-ray unit built in 1992 and have a VCR since I don't have cable or satellite. A DVR wouldn't work for people like myself.

 

[Othello]

Quite frankly why should a network or ad buyer give a DAMN about DVR viewing? I know if i was a suit I wouldn't care one whit about it. not one. People who watch a show on their DVR DO NOT WATCH COMMERCIALS! So why shoul network or advertisers give a damn about those viewers? They shouldn't. Like it or not this is a business and they need to make money. DVR viewing DOES NOT make them any money because no one DVR's a show and then sits through the commercials.

 

[Bob The Skutter]

Quite frankly why should a network or ad buyer give a DAMN about DVR viewing? I know if i was a suit I wouldn't care one whit about it. not one. People who watch a show on their DVR DO NOT WATCH COMMERCIALS! So why shoul network or advertisers give a damn about those viewers? They shouldn't. Like it or not this is a business and they need to make money. DVR viewing DOES NOT make them any money because no one DVR's a show and then sits through the commercials.

But that's the point, there's research to show some do, and that even those that don't are more likely to pick up on the brands because they're concentrating on the blips as they fast forward, looking for the show starting back up.
And those product placing should care about DVR/online viewing even more.

 

[John Picard]

Quite frankly why should a network or ad buyer give a DAMN about DVR viewing? I know if i was a suit I wouldn't care one whit about it. not one. People who watch a show on their DVR DO NOT WATCH COMMERCIALS! So why should network or advertisers give a damn about those viewers? They shouldn't. Like it or not this is a business and they need to make money. DVR viewing DOES NOT make them any money because no one DVR's a show and then sits through the commercials.

But they're watching your show. By not taking that audience into consideration you're cutting off your nose to spite your face. Not a wise move.

 

[Arrqh]

Quite frankly why should a network or ad buyer give a DAMN about DVR viewing? I know if i was a suit I wouldn't care one whit about it. not one. People who watch a show on their DVR DO NOT WATCH COMMERCIALS! So why shoul network or advertisers give a damn about those viewers? They shouldn't. Like it or not this is a business and they need to make money. DVR viewing DOES NOT make them any money because no one DVR's a show and then sits through the commercials.

Nonsense. The networks should absolutely care about DVR viewers because they are potential customers... and they need to come up with a way of generating a revenue stream from them. It isn't going to be through advertisers and will require a totally new business model. The issue now is that the networks are too set in their old business model to even try to attempt this. It's not DVR's that are hurting the networks... its their inability to innovate on their own business models that are hurting the networks.

 

[stj]

Why wouldn't people without cable use a DVR? They'd need a DVD player to play rentals, because you can't find VHS rentals. (Soon enough, finding blank VHS cassettes will be tough. I think they've already fled Wal-Mart for Big Lots!) Why would anyone want to keep cleaning VCR heads? running the signal through a VCR and a DVD player to the TV? Spend all that time rewinding? It's like most consumer electronics, you just wait a couple years behind the curve and it's not that expensive.

The figures on the current size of the iTunes revenues are instructive.

As to the commercial watching in DVR---aside from the usual RR/kitchen runs, the breaks are now so long that I often plan to do quick and easy chores. Frequently I have a book to read. And it's true that fast forwarding you do at least see the name. And if it's something I am actively interested in, I will even stop and rewind to see commercials, usually previews of movies or medicine adverts.

Product placement has to be done in the production process, so that revenue, such as it is, mostly doesn't go to the networks. Aside from network productions, the effect would be to allow the production company to accept lower payments from the network for broadcast rights. I don't think this will ever be well organized enough or large scale enough to be significant for TV. It is already hugely important for movies---we know how many movies are affected by merchandising considerations already.

As for the DVD revenues, again, that will usually go to a separate production company. I think again the main effect will be indirect. I suppose the fourth season of Enterprise is already a big example of (projected) DVD income permitting sale of broadcast rights for lower cost.
The Terminator series might be a related example, if it's basically being carried as advertising for the new Terminator movie. The idea is believable at least.

of course, the problem with Battlestar Galactica, as opposed to every other hit Scifi show like Lost, Jericho, Heroes, Pushing Daises, or Terminator......is that they inherently cannot use product placement

space-based shows, particularly ones not set in the near-future or even in an Earth-based culture, simply cannot use product placement

Oh ye of little faith. Where there's a will, there's a way. As I recall (and I mostly saw the first two seasons,) BSG has done a product placement for Hummer and Bob Dylan. And whiteboards, though maybe that's too generic.

 

[John Picard]

^^ I have a DVD player as well. As I understand it, a DVR will not work with rabbit ears.

 

[Klaus]

I think the 24-48 hour window is a big part of the problem... it should at least be a week, up until the next episode airs. But we're too now-oriented for that and would prefer to have John King breaking down the demographic patterns of TSCC ratings on the CNN magic board about an hour after it airs.

I have watched things online --the Daily Show mainly -- and think the ability to watch "whatever whenever" is obviously the wave of the present and needs to be addressed in the ratings/economic equation to be sure.

VCR, CRT, and cable for the record... can't afford a new TV right now so no HD yet. I've been pondering a DVR but I only watch 3 regular TV shows [Lost, BSG, 24] and they're in the midst of a long hiatus so it just doesn't seem worth it yet. I already have enough things I don't have time to watch or read, I don't need more lol. If I get a DVR I'll end up using it for movies off TCM more than TV series.

I think that may be an issue for some people -- the explosion of genre options can lead to an overload. I'm as avid a sf/f fan as you can get, and have been for decades, but I simply don't have time to watch all the sf/f options that are out there now on any kind of regular basis, no matter how good they are or how many terabytes my DVR can hold. I may get to the Buffyverse and Stargate's various permutations before I die, for example, and then again I may not. I've only seen them in passing and learned more from reading posts here than I'm ever likely to actually see. I did watch Jericho but often recorded a month at a time and watched them in one sitting. I've seen a few of the browncoats' adventures and am more likely so see the rest of those as there aren't so many. I am grimly determined to catch up on the new Dr. Who, starting this year lol. I've seen enough of those to want to give them the respect of watching them in order so I can't watch the new ones yet. So I am part of the problem I guess -- I decided in season one to watch Heroes on DVD someday and still have never seen an episode. It'll likely be cancelled before I've ever seen one.

 

[Temis the Vorta]

I'm not entirely certain how they reached that number,

It should be easy, at least for TiVO - the TiVO folks can see how many ads you're watching vs. shows. I'm not sure if all DVR services have the same two-way communication but I'd think they'd have to, right?

Quite frankly why should a network or ad buyer give a DAMN about DVR viewing?

If they can tell that some people watch ads (with TiVO, it should be something they can measure directly) or if the ad buyer is doing in-show product placements. Otherwise, you're right, why support shows that don't attract ad watchers. I'm sure there are many shows that attract the kinds of folks who don't own DVRs and dutifully watch all the ads. TV shows will be increasingly made for those folks. DVR owners are insuring the exinction of the kinds of shows they like (or the increase of product placement within those shows).

The networks should absolutely care about DVR viewers because they are potential customers

Hard-to-reach customers vs the non-DVR using folks who are easy-to-reach customers. Of course networks will opt for the easier customers and make shows that appeal to them. Just look at a list of top DVRed shows and note which shows are never on those lists, but still do decent Neilsen ratings. Those are the shows we will get more of.

and they need to come up with a way of generating a revenue stream from them.

As an adjunct to making more shows for the DVR-shy crowd, sure. Probably with more product placements to offset production costs. I'm not sure how far they could take in-show advertising, but I'm certain that with the profit motive, they will get very creative.

It isn't going to be through advertisers and will require a totally new business model.

If you're cutting advertisers out of the equation, that leaves consumers as the direct revenue providers. So sure, that will happen and is happening. Many people are already paying directly for ad-free TV - premium cable; purchasing or renting DVDs; iTunes. That's not a new business model at all. Maybe there will be new ways to expand the existing channels and maybe there will be new channels for paid TV that don't currently exist.

I think the 24-48 hour window is a big part of the problem... it should at least be a week, up until the next episode airs.

Advertisers object to that since many ads are time-sensitive. Three days is about their tolerance limit.

Either you sit through ads or you pay for an ad-free experience. One way or the other, the consumer of the product pays for it, and that equation will never change.

 

[nx1701g]

Quite frankly why should a network or ad buyer give a DAMN about DVR viewing? I know if i was a suit I wouldn't care one whit about it. not one. People who watch a show on their DVR DO NOT WATCH COMMERCIALS! So why shoul network or advertisers give a damn about those viewers? They shouldn't. Like it or not this is a business and they need to make money. DVR viewing DOES NOT make them any money because no one DVR's a show and then sits through the commercials.

That's not entirely true because of product placements. Off the top of my head.

Knight Rider - Essentially a Ford Commercial.
Terminator - Sponsored by Chrysler LLC (watch the end credits)
Smallville - Dodge (Clark), Toyota (Chloe), frequent product placement.

 

[Arrqh]

DVR owners are insuring the exinction of the kinds of shows they like (or the increase of product placement within those shows).

And I will say again that this is not true. The networks are insuring the extinction of these kinds of shows by refusing to explore new business models to reach potential customers who are clearly interested in their product. Give another decade or two and this is going to describe most people. Better for everyone if the networks start doing this now instead of trying to reach an easy, but increasingly diminishing, market.

The biggest obstacle is that advertising based revenue just totally dominates the mind space of these discussions. Yes, this has been the staple of television funding since its inception. No, it does not have to be the primary source of revenue in a world where there are more and more ways for the networks to directly reach the consumer.

 

[Temis the Vorta]

DVR owners are insuring the exinction of the kinds of shows they like (or the increase of product placement within those shows).

And I will say again that this is not true. The networks are insuring the extinction of these kinds of shows by refusing to explore new business models to reach potential customers who are clearly interested in their product.

Sure, for people who are so interested in certain shows that they are willing to pay for them, their tastes will be catered to as well. Premium cable is doing very well. That's the business model you're thinking of: getting viewers to pay directly for the product by making product worth paying for. Even a horrible cheapskate like me is willing to pay for the DVD sets of Dexter, so that business model is totally viable and very welcome.

So the future of TV will split into these two trends:

1. Ad-supported TV for the dinosaurs who are willing to sit still for ads and can't or won't learn to use a TiVO. Product placement and other creative advertising techniques (such as using a TV series to advertise a movie) will be some influence here, but I think creative advertising will be self-limiting and can only go so far before it becomes counter-productive.

2. Paid TV via premium cable, DVD sets (including some shows that are made directly for DVD as the primary distribution medium), iTunes and other paid download services.

I expect the shows under #1 to be pretty dull and insipid compared with the stuff that emerges under #2. We're already seeing that happening - it's getting harder and harder to find anything worth watching on network TV. Cable is where the interesting shows are.

The biggest obstacle is that advertising based revenue just totally dominates the mind space of these discussions.

It shouldn't, since paid TV is where all the interesting stuff is happening in terms of TV content. I guess there isn't much to discuss about a business model where people just fork over money for the product they want to consume, but sometimes the old fashioned way is the best. And ad-supported TV was always a pretty weird way to do things, when you think of the larger universe of consumer behavior.

 

[nx1701g]

This is making me wonder if Star Trek was right again about how TV would die off in the early 21st Century.

 

[Temis the Vorta]

This is making me wonder if Star Trek was right again about how TV would die off in the early 21st Century.

It will evolve beyond recognition rather than die.

 

[stj]

Sports, news, daytime soaps, early evening game shows, late night talk shows, Saturday morning cartoons. Both the demise or mutation of TV is further away. NBC is moving towards cutting out the old fashioned prime time scripted TV. So, instead of broadcast networks doing the same old/same old on a less productive basis, it seems clear they will simply drop scripted TV. Fox is a major network and they don't even bother to offer a full primetime schedule! I doubt they ever will.

As for the notion that the pay-TV in various forms will substitute---in the long run, yes. But the pace is greatly exaggerated. Worse, the notion that such an inherently fragmented market will foster greater creativity is false. The supposed floruit in cable programming is more acclaimed than real in my opinion. The smaller rewards for the smaller audiences will attract the smaller budgets and the losers in the greenlight games.

 

[Bob The Skutter]

Temis, yes TiVo and most cable/satellite DVRs will have a return path, so I suppose they can collect viewing data, I guess the question is whether they do. I'd guess that going forward most set top boxes will include network connections to make interactive TV work. Whether that's for streamed TV, or ads you can respond to, so they may be able to collect data from any set top box on an opt-in/out basis.

John_Picard, I know that TiVo works off an antenna, so you can record off terrestrial TV. Also a lot of cheap non-subscription DVRs over here in the UK work for Digital TV via an antenna, so I suppose if the signal is strong enough in your area then you could use one of those types if they're available in the US at any point.