It remains a possibility, and Starfleet associating the "lightning storm in space" with the events on Vulcan suggests that at least Chekov thought it had something to do with it.
Beyond speculation, the only facts we have are these:
1) Earth received a distress signal reporting "seismic activity."
2) Starfleet detected the black hole (evidently without recognizing it) and thought it had something to do with it.
3) The Narada's drill interferes with communications.
1) and 3) are enough to rule out the drill. 2) Suggests an alternate cause. Even excluding that alternate cause (there is no cause to do so, as I pointed out) the facts still eliminate the drill as a potential cause.
I agree. Eminently logical.

Similarly:
1) Romulan ships use cloaking devices;
2) The Narada is not shown (on screen or in dialogue) to use a cloaking device;
3) The Narada overcomes Vulcan's defence satelites without the Vulcans being aware that they are under attack from an enemy vessel;
4) The Narada travels 16 light years to Earth uncloaked at low warp (less than 5 since Enterprise is able to overtake her at a lower warp) in a few hours while torturing defence codes from Pike;
5) Narada overcomes Earth's defences;
6) A wizard did it.
Sorry, I lost my logic thread half way through. The plot is really inconsistent isn't it?
Logically:
1a) The Narada must have captured a Vulcan and obtained Vulcan defence codes (this could even have been Spock assuming that his phenomenal memory knows what Vulcan defence codes were during this era).
1b) The Narada must have a cloaking device that was damaged during the skirmish with the Vulcan or Federation ships.
2a) Nero was unable to torture access co-ordinates to the warp corridor to Earth until part way through his journey.
2b) Warp corridors allow variable speeds at variable warp factors (i.e. they can't even remain consistent about their inconsistencies).