Spoilers Marvel Cinematic Universe spoiler-heavy speculation thread

[Mr. Adventure]

Marvel doesn't have name recognition?

 

[fireproof78]

Marvel doesn't have name recognition?

Not in the same way as Taylor Swift.

Taylor Swift is one that I can go from hearing about from my teen daughter, to hearing it on morning shows, to hearing about her on sports radio shows, and advertisements from local businesses.

 

[JoeZhang]

Marvel doesn't have name recognition?

No it's a [checks notes] scrappy em.. outsider owned by the little known Disney corporation.

 

[M'rk son of Mogh]

There is nothing bigger on this earth right now than Taylor Swift.
She has invaded my morning news shows where she's never been before and football fans had her forced on them as well, like it or not.

 

[DigificWriter]

For fun, I decided to try and create my own Viewing Order for the MCU:
- Phase 1 -

• Iron Man
• Iron Man 2
• The Incredible Hulk
• Thor
• Captain America: The First Avenger
• The Avengers

- Phase 2 -

• Iron Man 3
• Thor: The Dark World
• Guardians of the Galaxy
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2~
• Captain America: The Winter Soldier
• Avengers: Age of Ultron
• Black Panther~
• Ant-Man

- Phase 3 -

• Captain America: Civil War
• Spider-Man: Homecoming
• Doctor Strange
• Thor: Ragnarok
• Avengers: Infinity War
• Captain Marvel
• Ant-Man and The Wasp
• Avengers: Endgame
• Black Widow~~
  
• Thor: Love and Thunder~~
• Spider-Man: Far From Home

- Phase 4 -

• Spider-Man: No Way Home
• Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
• Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
• Eternals
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

- Phase 5 -

• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
  
• Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania
• The Marvels

Key:
~ Released as part of Phase 3
~~ Released as Part of Phase 4

 

[Mr. Adventure]

There is nothing bigger on this earth right now than Taylor Swift.
She has invaded my morning news shows where she's never been before and football fans had her forced on them as well, like it or not.

I guess I hadn't thought about all the changes of the last two or three years in my life. I got rid of traditional cable TV, I'm working from home and I only watch my local NFL team's game so I'm a bit Swift-deficient.

 

[Timelord79 (he/him)]

* Friday Nights at Freddy's cost $20 million to make, has taken $251 million, with a video on-demand release on the first friday.
* The Taylor Swift movie looks to have cost $10 - $20 million to produce and has taken $240 million.
* The Marvels looks to have cost about $250 million to make and looks to make about $180 million.

Since when do movie audiences decide which movie to watch based on the production cost?

 

[JoeZhang]

Since when do movie audiences decide which movie to watch based on the production cost?

They don't - what does that have to do with the comment I am responding to?

 

[Set Harth]

There is nothing bigger on this earth right now than Taylor Swift.

The blue whale, that's about it.

 

[Gaith]

As a percentage of the weekend's total box office, The Marvels opened proportionally better than the smash hit Barbie, getting 55% of the weekend's total box office while Barbie only got 52% in its debut (though that's because Oppenheimer got a fair chunk of the rest). Percentage-wise, that's the weakest opening for a Marvel movie this year, but it's better than Indiana Jones or Mission: Impossible's opening percentage, and just slightly below Across the Spider-Verse.

Remember the saying "“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics?" The movie will lose a lot of money. Using statistics to imply, even with caveats, that it compares favorably with Barbie is a damned lie.

So despite the narrative some people are eager to spin, it seems the problem is not with The Marvels, the problem is that moviegoing is down overall.

Deadline reports the opening weekend as "disastrous" - either they're wrong, or you are. Seeing as Guardians 3 made money this year, as did Wakanda Forever last year, and The Marvels will lose money, saying that this movie's box office isn't a problem for Disney is either irrational, not honest, or both. You're the one "eagerly spinning" a false narrative.

 

[JoeZhang]

Turns that even $45.5 million was wrong and the actual is likely to be $45 million.

 

[Timelord79 (he/him)]

They don't - what does that have to do with the comment I am responding to?

You imply a correlation between cost and income for the movies. But the cost would marginally impact the income at all.
Other factors determine that.
Unless I misunderstood you here.

 

[Nerys Myk]

Marvel doesn't have name recognition?

Pretty sure Anwar meant "Marvels".

 

[The Knappos]

- Phase 2 -

• Black Panther~

- Phase 3 -

• Captain America: Civil War

Sooooooo, you’re going to start with T’Challa’s coronation and then he next turns up as a Prince and his Dad’s alive and still king? ‘Kay.

 

[DigificWriter]

Sooooooo, you’re going to start with T’Challa’s coronation and then he next turns up as a Prince and his Dad’s alive and still king? ‘Kay.

I've seen both Black Panther and Civil War once, and was admittedly going by supporting character appearances, so thanks for the input. In order to compensate and keep character flow, I'll switch CW and BP so that the former is in Phase 2 and we don't go more than two movies between AoU and BP.

Revised Phase 2:

• Iron Man 3
• Thor: The Dark World
• Guardians of the Galaxy
• Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2~
• Captain America: The Winter Soldier
• Avengers: Age of Ultron
• Ant-Man
• Captain America: Civil War

-Revised Phase 3:

• Black Panther
• Spider-Man: Homecoming
• Doctor Strange
• Thor: Ragnarok
• Avengers: Infinity War
• Captain Marvel
• Ant-Man and The Wasp
• Avengers: Endgame
• Black Widow
• Thor: Love and Thunder
• Spider-Man: Far From Home

 

[JoeZhang]

You imply a correlation between cost and income for the movies. But the cost would marginally impact the income at all.
Other factors determine that.
Unless I misunderstood you here.

Yes you completely misunderstood me.

 

[Turtletrekker]

I'm reminded of Star Trek Beyond, by far the best of the Kelvin verse movies, but got next to zero promotion and died a quick death.

 

[bdub76]

I’m burnt out on the MCU. Looks like I’m not the only one. Time for another movie trend to replace it.

 

[UssGlenn]

For fun, I decided to try and create my own Viewing Order for the MCU:

Your thoughts on Putting Captain America and Captain Marvel at the beginning before Iron Man?

 

[Gaith]

Regardless it will likely finish at about $100 million (domestic). With those sorts of numbers, I would think that Thunderbolts is dead or at least heavily reworked.

Why? The actors are probably locked in to be paid at this point, and if Brave New World does well, that should boost Thunderbolts. The Marvels is a unique case of a not-very-popular lead, and two co-leads who were introduced in streaming series.

Speaking of which, does anyone know how MCU streaming viewership compares to movies? I read yesterday that around ~2m US households watched the Loki S1 finale, and that was a high point for a Marvel Disney+ series. Quantumania made about $215m in US+Canadian box office, so, estimating a $10/ticket average, that's about 21m attendees. Of course, a household can have multiple members, the same person can go to a movie multiple times, and a streaming episode can be watched anytime, whereas a theatrical release window is limited, so counting human viewers is a highly inexact process, based largely on unknown proprietary information, and the above streaming figure may not count Canada. But even if we posit that the Loki episode viewership eventually doubled after the ratings were recorded, and that the average streaming household size is two, that still suggests a MCU box-office disappointment was seen by twice as many people as a streaming episode hit.

Moral of story? Maybe don't introduce headlining movie characters on streaming series. Again, this suggestion is based on incomplete and imperfect data, but there it is.