I'm guessing Lindelof is out for future sequels

[Belz...]

If you actually go and read that thread, it's not hard to pick out who I am.

Either way, I don't care. Believe the report or don't. I'm simply passing along an interesting note.

From who ?

 

[Amaris]

The quote is interesting, but I skimmed through other posts in that thread by DoucheMcCloud and that individual did not have inside knowledge about Star Trek XII.

Nor did I say he did.

He does have connections in the film industry, though.

I used to work at the video store in my youth, too.

 

[bullethead]

I'll be glad to see Lindeloff kicked off the writing team and back into production from here until he retires, but I'm not holding out hope for that to happen unless STID does really terribly in all markets.

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

He does have connections in the film industry, though.

Damn, do you know how many people around here have "connections in the film industry?"

Guess you're easily impressed?

Believe the report or don't.

It's not a "report." It's an offhand opinion offered on an Internet forum by a poster calling himself DoucheMcCloud who lives in L.A. If it contained anything that might even pass for a fact it would be...well, it would be something that it's not.

 

[Squiggy]

I'd love to see Nick Meyer brought on board to be honest.

I bet he'd love to dabble in this new universe.

Meyer hasn't directed a theatrical film since...okay, other than being employed on Star Trek a couple of times, when did he direct a successful studio theatrical release? Other than Time After Time it's not clear that any of the films he directed during the 1980s turned a profit, and he hasn't directed one at all since ST 6 in 1991. After twenty-plus years he doesn't get to "dabble" with one of Paramount's major franchises; what "he'd love" is not a factor in anyone's plans or calculations.

I'm sorry to have to tell you that your insider friend is an idiot who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing - if that much - and his or her analysis is strictly amateur night.

Because if anyone can breath new life into a franchise, it's a 70 year old director who hasn't directed anything since he directed a bunch of 70 year olds.

 

[JarodRussell]

I'd love to see Nick Meyer brought on board to be honest.

I bet he'd love to dabble in this new universe.

Meyer hasn't directed a theatrical film since...okay, other than being employed on Star Trek a couple of times, when did he direct a successful studio theatrical release? Other than Time After Time it's not clear that any of the films he directed during the 1980s turned a profit, and he hasn't directed one at all since ST 6 in 1991. After twenty-plus years he doesn't get to "dabble" with one of Paramount's major franchises; what "he'd love" is not a factor in anyone's plans or calculations.

I'm sorry to have to tell you that your insider friend is an idiot who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing - if that much - and his or her analysis is strictly amateur night.

Because if anyone can breath new life into a franchise, it's a 70 year old director who hasn't directed anything since he directed a bunch of 70 year olds.

Yeah, old farts can't do shit.

 

[AbramsIsSatan]

He does have connections in the film industry, though.

Damn, do you know how many people around here have "connections in the film industry?"

Guess you're easily impressed?

I've known this particular individual for 10+ years and have no reason to doubt what he says. Obviously you will take such a post with a grain of salt and I expect that.

Here's hoping!

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

I've known this particular individual for 10+ years and have no reason to doubt what he says. Obviously you will take such a post with a grain of salt and I expect that.

Easily impressed, then - but hey, you think someone who can't get arrested in the modern movie business might "like to dabble" in a studio's billion dollar franchise, so no big surprise there.

I don't "take it with a grain of salt." I dismiss it as stupid and irrelevant.

 

[Squiggy]

He does have connections in the film industry, though.

Damn, do you know how many people around here have "connections in the film industry?"

Guess you're easily impressed?

I've known this particular individual for 10+ years and have no reason to doubt what he says. Obviously you will take such a post with a grain of salt and I expect that.

Here's hoping!

I'm guessing you'll be able to tell everyone who this connection is once his prediction has held up, right?

 

[AbramsIsSatan]

I'm guessing you'll be able to tell everyone who this connection is once his prediction has held up, right?

I have no idea who he is. Just that I've known him for a long time (online) and he knows a few people out in Cali.

 

[AbramsIsSatan]

I don't "take it with a grain of salt." I dismiss it as stupid and irrelevant.

Then just steer clear of the thread my good man, no need to litter it with your garbage.

 

[Amaris]

I'm guessing you'll be able to tell everyone who this connection is once his prediction has held up, right?

I have no idea who he is. Just that I've known him for a long time (online) and he knows a few people out in Cali.

John Titor?

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Well, of course if one has no idea who a poster is, one has no reason to doubt what the poster says.

Especially if one has not had any idea who the poster is for ten years.

The logic is impeccable.

I happen to have purchased the winning Powerball lottery ticket, BTW, and am willing to sell it for a few thou because I need the bread badly by tomorrow. You have no idea who I am, but I'll send you the ticket if you'll deposit the money in my PayPal account.

You've no reason not to believe me; I have connections.

 

[CorporalClegg]

You've no reason not to believe me; I have connections.

I suppose the next thing you'll tell us is you wrote an episode or two of Star Trek.

 

[Amaris]

Hello, friends, I have just arrived, and I have a friend, in the biz, who says that Star Trek is doing poorly. You should believe what my friend says, even though I've only been here a very short time, and have established absolutely zero trust whatsoever, which makes my admonishments of "you don't have to believe me," to be rather silly, since no one will considering the source is unknown and unverifiable, and is being relayed through someone who has established nothing as of yet.

You'll rue the day you ignored my friend's advice! Rue!

 

[AbramsIsSatan]

Hello, friends, I have just arrived, and I have a friend, in the biz, who says that Star Trek is doing poorly. You should believe what my friend says, even though I've only been here a very short time, and have established absolutely zero trust whatsoever, which makes my admonishments of "you don't have to believe me," to be rather silly, since no one will considering the source is unknown and unverifiable, and is being relayed through someone who has established nothing as of yet.

You'll rue the day you ignored my friend's advice! Rue!

 

[AbramsIsSatan]

Things that make ya go hmmmm

1. Into Darkness earned $70 million it's opening weekend. Star Trek earned $75 million.

2. Industry analysts and the studio expected $90-$100 million, so it's far short of expectations.

3. Studios DO NOT, I repeat, DO NOT expect sequels to earn less than their predecessors, especially when the budget of the sequel is $40 million more than the original. Look no further than Spiderman 2, The Dark Knight, The Matrix Reloaded, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, etc. Iron Man 2 was slightly below Iron Man ($6 million less) but Iron Man 3 has already exceeded both films.

4. Into Darkness will likely earn its $190 million dollar budget back domestically (minus marketing, of course) but it won't be a major earner and will certainly have a disappointing take. Generally speaking, a film begins to decline in its second week of release by 50%. Given that next weekend is a 3 day holiday, it's likely that Star Trek will only see a modest loss of maybe 30%-40%, so the total would be around $135 million or so in week two (and I'm being optimistic).

By week three, the domestic gross would likely be around $20 million and by week four, all bets are off because The Man of Steel is released and it will get crushed. $10 million in week four would be huge.

So for the sake of guessing, that puts the film at the following:

Week 1: $85 million
Week 2: $50 million ($135)
Week 3: $20 million ($155)
Week 4: $10 million ($165).

By the end of an 8 week run, it should probably reach $190 million but that isn't exactly a given, especially when considering the tepid response the film received this weekend and the other choices available in Iron Man 3, Man of Steel, in a addition to Monsters University and World War Z the weekend of June 18th.

If it hasn't hit its budget by the end of June, it's dead in the water.

What about the overseas take? That doesn't count for anything?

Yeah, it counts but with this film, foreign is already at $80 million and it was released earlier than the U.S. If the film does recoup its $190 million dollar budget domestically, the additional $80-$100 million it does internationally basically covers the cost of worldwide marketing, with a little profit thrown in.

Given that actors, producers and directors are usually given some backend (depending on the final numbers, of course), this film will be lucky to break even with its theatrical release.

 

[Out Of My Vulcan Mind]

Spider-Man 2 actually did gross less than Spider-Man - by about $30 million domestic and $38 million worldwide - although both were huge hits.

 

[M'Sharak]

Things that make ya go hmmmm

1. Into Darkness earned $70 million it's opening weekend. Star Trek earned $75 million.

2. Industry analysts and the studio expected $90-$100 million, so it's far short of expectations.

3. Studios DO NOT, I repeat, DO NOT expect sequels to earn less than their predecessors, especially when the budget of the sequel is $40 million more than the original. Look no further than Spiderman 2, The Dark Knight, The Matrix Reloaded, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, etc. Iron Man 2 was slightly below Iron Man ($6 million less) but Iron Man 3 has already exceeded both films.

4. Into Darkness will likely earn its $190 million dollar budget back domestically (minus marketing, of course) but it won't be a major earner and will certainly have a disappointing take. Generally speaking, a film begins to decline in its second week of release by 50%. Given that next weekend is a 3 day holiday, it's likely that Star Trek will only see a modest loss of maybe 30%-40%, so the total would be around $135 million or so in week two (and I'm being optimistic).

By week three, the domestic gross would likely be around $20 million and by week four, all bets are off because The Man of Steel is released and it will get crushed. $10 million in week four would be huge.

So for the sake of guessing, that puts the film at the following:

Week 1: $85 million
Week 2: $50 million ($135)
Week 3: $20 million ($155)
Week 4: $10 million ($165).

By the end of an 8 week run, it should probably reach $190 million but that isn't exactly a given, especially when considering the tepid response the film received this weekend and the other choices available in Iron Man 3, Man of Steel, in a addition to Monsters University and World War Z the weekend of June 18th.

If it hasn't hit its budget by the end of June, it's dead in the water.

What about the overseas take? That doesn't count for anything?

Yeah, it counts but with this film, foreign is already at $80 million and it was released earlier than the U.S. If the film does recoup its $190 million dollar budget domestically, the additional $80-$100 million it does internationally basically covers the cost of worldwide marketing, with a little profit thrown in.

Given that actors, producers and directors are usually given some backend (depending on the final numbers, of course), this film will be lucky to break even with its theatrical release.

Could you provide links to the sources of these? That's standard, when quoting blocks of text in support of whichever point is being made or illustrated.

 

[J.J Abrams]

JJ Abrams here, everything is under control. We are working hard to make Trek 3 hits all audiences and thrills you as the first did.

Your friend.

JJ.