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How should the current shows fit with the First Order

Yup. He took the Noghri's loyalty for granted. Assumed they'd never figure out the Empire's betrayal. He was wrong. That's hubris; which I might add was also Palpatine's downfall as Luke explicitly pointed out, and for largely the same reason. Only there, he took Vader's submission for granted.
That's a bit like saying it was hubris of JFK to visit Dallas in an open air car, assuming no local crackpots would take a shot at him, IMO. The Leia-Vader connection was not one he could have reasonably been expected to discover. Palpatine, on the other hand, was hubristic in assuming Vader would stay loyal to him while Pals murdered his own son.
 
That's a bit like saying it was hubris of JFK to visit Dallas in an open air car, assuming no local crackpots would take a shot at him, IMO. The Leia-Vader connection was not one he could have reasonably been expected to discover. Palpatine, on the other hand, was hubristic in assuming Vader would stay loyal to him while Pals murdered his own son.
That analogy makes exactly zero sense, and I could spend the next 15 mins picking it apart . . . but I won't. Toodles! ;)
 
Thrawn is almost always defeated by something that he was not informed about appearing in the battlefield, or one of his subordinates going off the rails.

In The Heir to the Empire novel, Thrawn's goal of stealing a New Republic Fleet is foiled because Lando Calrissian just happens to show up in the system and still had the command codes to his mining ships to basically cripple the stolen warships. While this denies Thrawn his prizes, it still wrecks the New Republic Navy, so its still technically a win for the Empire.
 
Theres plenty of time in the timeline for Thrawn to rise, and fall.
In the end he may aggregate the imperial remenints under his banner and try to battle the new republic. but at the end he doesn't defeat them, so now the New Republic in thinking that they have destroyed Thrawn and most of the imperial remenints that they can go back to the "peacekeeper" roll of before the clone wars.
So at the "Ahsoka" time, Snoke is out there, Ben Skywalker is 7-8 or so.
 
Theres plenty of time in the timeline for Thrawn to rise, and fall.
In the end he may aggregate the imperial remenints under his banner and try to battle the new republic. but at the end he doesn't defeat them, so now the New Republic in thinking that they have destroyed Thrawn and most of the imperial remenints that they can go back to the "peacekeeper" roll of before the clone wars.
So at the "Ahsoka" time, Snoke is out there, Ben Skywalker is 7-8 or so.
Yup. The whole thing with the New Republic reminds me of the period between WW1 and 2 and the lack of willingness to go to war again on the part of many European nations, creating an air of complacency until war was upon them as another nation fell to the Germans. Only, in this instance, Pearl Harbor succeeded as the entire Pacific Fleet was there.
 
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