George R R Martin and his next book...

[Brendan Moody]

The timeline doesn't work out for Ned's slippage, which is one of the major pieces of evidence there.

I don't see how we know enough about the relative timelines of different aspects of the rebellion to make a blanket statement like that. Provided there's roughly nine months between Ned's wedding and Jon's birth, which isn't ruled out by any solid evidence that I'm aware of, there's time for Ned to have slept with some woman, somewhere.

I have found a great many people who never caught on to the hints of the RxL=J theory, so I don't think it is really that heavy-handed.

I don't think it's "heavy-handed" either, but I do think the hints in that direction are abnormally heavy for something that is, by the nature of the genre, going to be a long-term mystery, and the theory is more common among devoted fans than any other. Again, contrast some of the major resolutions we've already seen, which were amply foreshadowed without being widely guessed at. Then again, maybe GRRM's occasional frustration at the heavy fan discussion of this topic is because we've figured out something he thought was cleverly hidden.

Also, Jon's oaths may come to an end if they defeat the others or the wall falls, or any number of other reasons. I don't think he will forswear, but I don't think he will die on the wall as an old man either.

Anything's possible, but I think it would be far truer to the character's emerging nature for him to remain with the Watch, regardless of how its mission changes as the series progresses. The need for a border force wouldn't necessarily end with the fall of the Wall or the defeat of the Others. And the oath is for life, without any contingencies. I don't really see GRRM writing an ending so rosy that there's no longer a need for the Watch, but you never know.

There is no way in hell that Jon is Ned's kid if solely for the fact that it is rather out of character for Ned to have an affair of any sort even if he had only seen the wife a few times.

Given the complexity of character and moral ambiguity that characterize the series, I don't think it's at all a stretch to imagine Ned, caught up in a rebellion that could end his life and ruin his family, and only recently married to a woman for whom he had no reason to feel affection, straying from his vows. My complaint about this scenario is that it seems too simple-- there has to be more to it than that, another layer of intrigue or surprise. Really, that's my complaint about all the theories of Jon's parentage so far: none of them have quite the edge that I associate with GRRM's plotting.

 

[Venardhi]

Well one variant on the theory is that Ned and Ashara had a child, and Lyanna and Rhaegar (no one else is reading this thread anymore anyways so fuck the spoiler tags) also had a child. Or Lyanna bore twins and Ashara was just involved somehow as a Targ supporter and friend to both. Eiher way Ashara faked her death and left Starfall with Lyanna's baby, and Ned took either the other twin (that looked more Stark) or his with Ashara home with him.

That add some complications if you insist upon it.

 

[Roger Wilco]

I'm a believer in "sometimes a cigar is just a cigar", so I think Ned wasn't lying about Jon's birth - especially not to Catelyn, since that would be a betrayal of sorts too. It was war, Ned was far away from home and a young man, imo it's not a stretch to believe that even a man who values honour as highly as he does could "slip" under such circumstances.

 

[Shurik]

I too think that R+L=J theory is right. Ned was probably the most chiched character in this series, he put his honour far above any reason and Martin's twist on that chiche was that Ned got himself accused of treason and then killed and the members of his family and household are either dead or missing. Starks are more or less considered extinct in Westeros and very few know the whereabouts of the remaining Stark kids ...

 

[Venardhi]

I'm a believer in "sometimes a cigar is just a cigar", so I think Ned wasn't lying about Jon's birth - especially not to Catelyn, since that would be a betrayal of sorts too. It was war, Ned was far away from home and a young man, imo it's not a stretch to believe that even a man who values honour as highly as he does could "slip" under such circumstances.

To Catelyn, Ned specifically says "my blood" rather than "my son". I think he finds it the hardest to lie to her.

Mind you this is his beloved sister's only son with a dead prince who's entire family was pulled from their beds and slaughtered and Robert never blinked at it. Even Ned would lie to protect a child's life (especially blood), not to mention keep his family's honor.

What else could Lyanna have possibly asked of him that would haunt him 15 years later?

 

[sidious618]

Rereading A Game of Thrones made it pretty obvious that Ned was not the father because of the dialogue flashbacks he would get. On first reading I never picked it up, though, and I heard about the theory before reading it a second time so that amy have influenced my view.

 

[Venardhi]

Well it is a two-layer mystery. You're SUPPOSED to be trying to figure out who his mother was, when (in theory) the mystery is really who both his parents are.

 

[sidious618]

Well it is a two-layer mystery. You're SUPPOSED to be trying to figure out who his mother was, when (in theory) the mystery is really who both his parents are.

Yeah. First time around I did not care much who his mother was because I doubt we had met her but when it became clear that both parents were a mystery things got more interesting.