Dune Part 2 2023 (24, 25, 26...)

[Samurai8472]

Director Denis Villeneuve describes the sequel as a “cinematic blast” and says it’ll have less talking and a lot more action.

https://twitter.com/ErikDavis/status/1451736338361995274

 

[The Nth Doctor]

...and that's just the sandworm riding!

 

[wayoung]

To me, the book doesn't hit it's stride until the attack starts. The movie turned that opening, which is a bit of a slog, into something beautiful. I want to see what he does with the rest of the story, now that we're well into the "good" part.

 

[JD]

Personally i believe it's a 90% done deal despite Wayoung's hesitance

 

[Kai "the spy"]

Here are a few things to consider:

- WB really had to appease Legendary and Villeneuve because of the HBO Max thing, so it is likely that, if they haven't internally green-lit the sequel right away, they at least lowered the bar the first movie's performance has to meet. That bar was already lowered because of COVID.

- Prestige and OSCARs really help out, as well. Fury Road didn't perform that well at the box office ($375 million worldwide against a budget somewhere between $155 million and $185 million), but the great buzz, the critical acclaim and the awards it got helped WB greenlight the Furiosa movie years ago (slowed by George Miller's need for rest between the two movies). Sure, box office is important, but it is not the only deciding factor when greenlighting a sequel. And this Dune feels like it will be the rare genre movie to get some OSCAR love beyond the technical categories.

- The audience of Dune skews older, and this part of the audience is not only more likely to stay home because of COVID, they also are more patient when it comes to when they go see a movie. They don't all rush out on the first weekend, they'll go when they have the time.

- The good buzz and people announcing repeat viewings are also signs that this film will "have legs" at the box office.

- The Chinese box office is not as important as it was just two years ago. The Chinese government has limited the number of foreign films allowed for a release in China, and several big blockbuster movies (including the two MCU releases so far) didn't get a release in China. This means studios are less likely to count on Chinese box office for their future movies. On the other hand, Dune is doing great in Europe.

 

[wayoung]

Here are a few things to consider:

- WB really had to appease Legendary and Villeneuve because of the HBO Max thing, so it is likely that, if they haven't internally green-lit the sequel right away, they at least lowered the bar the first movie's performance has to meet. That bar was already lowered because of COVID.

- Prestige and OSCARs really help out, as well. Fury Road didn't perform that well at the box office ($375 million worldwide against a budget somewhere between $155 million and $185 million), but the great buzz, the critical acclaim and the awards it got helped WB greenlight the Furiosa movie years ago (slowed by George Miller's need for rest between the two movies). Sure, box office is important, but it is not the only deciding factor when greenlighting a sequel. And this Dune feels like it will be the rare genre movie to get some OSCAR love beyond the technical categories.

- The audience of Dune skews older, and this part of the audience is not only more likely to stay home because of COVID, they also are more patient when it comes to when they go see a movie. They don't all rush out on the first weekend, they'll go when they have the time.

- The good buzz and people announcing repeat viewings are also signs that this film will "have legs" at the box office.

- The Chinese box office is not as important as it was just two years ago. The Chinese government has limited the number of foreign films allowed for a release in China, and several big blockbuster movies (including the two MCU releases so far) didn't get a release in China. This means studios are less likely to count on Chinese box office for their future movies. On the other hand, Dune is doing great in Europe.

I agree with most of that - the delay in Mad Max isn't because of Miller's need for rest, it's because WB tried to fuck him over with regards to his earnings for Fury Road and he sued them and it took like 5 years to settle the lawsuit. WB doesn't play nicely with talent. If Part 2 doesn't happen I expect we'll see A LOT more lawsuits against WB.

Otherwise those are all points in the sequels favour - the question is if they outweigh the points against it - the absolute shellacking in the NA & Chinese box office, WB being sold, Legendary up for sale so needs to increase its valuation, not decrease it, incoming exec teams because of the sales, and simple economics fact that they answer to investors.

They borrow funds from investors pay for the movies and they have to explain to investors why they should put $180 mil towards a Dune sequel when the first movie made $32 mil opening weekend & could take a very long time to even break even, when the investors can instead put $10 mil towards a horror sequel that generates $50 mil on its opening weekend. Remember: That's what killed the Kelvinverse franchise. Investors wouldn't pay for them anymore, no matter that Paramount itself wanted to keep making them.

Just like with the first movie, I'm unfortunately going to be wary the sequel will be made until they actually start filming - thanks to the sales. Even if it gets the greenlight now, until production starts the need for investors & the corporate sales & resulting incoming exec teams can kill it. This actually happened to the last Dune franchise - incoming exec teams canned the miniseries franchise that had two more shows in pre production. And that franchise was hugely successful, not like this movie.

I may be overly pessimistic in this, I fully admit that - but I've seen it happen so many times. Being overly optimistic seems like a mistake.

It's the hope that kills you.

 

[wayoung]

Box office estimate revised up $8 mil, to $40 mil opening weekend.

https://variety.com/2021/film/box-o...opening-weekend-timothee-chalamet-1235096320/

It's good in that they had lowered expectations to $32 max based on Thur & Fri numbers, so it over performed hugely Sat compared to them. Fingers crossed Sunday also over performs and we end up even higher. It's also good in that it's better than BR 2049.

But it's still not good overall. It's still the worse major opening this fall, and that includes Halloween Kills, which also debuted digitally same day and only cost $10 mil vs Dune's $165 plus massive marketing.

HBO streaming numbers are the big question, and we'll never get them. Since Dune skews older it could very well be a massive audience watching it at home, not wanting to deal with theatres yet. How much it drops next weekend will also be a big factor - if the digital release kills subsequent weekend box Office returns like happened with Black Widow.

I also got a notification that the Chinese box office numbers are being revised upwards as well but when I clicked the link I got nothing and couldn't find it googling.

 

[wayoung]

@DigificWriter

Following up to our discussion yesterday, Variety is reporting today that it is indeed Legendary holding up approval of Dune Part 2. The reason is not clear, but is suspected to be due in part to negotiations to prevent day 1 digital release for the sequel. Variety also states that WB did pay off Legendary & the cast and crew so that the theatrical box office isn't as important as it normally would be, which is great news.

https://variety.com/2021/film/news/dune-sequel-denis-villenevue-1235097103/

 

[wayoung]

https://www.instagram.com/p/CVgEjP0vs7H/?utm_medium=copy_link

https://twitter.com/Legendary/status/1453058884516466691?t=RXoaYSo-fnyX7uMbnkaWSQ&s=19

Legendary has announced they are going to "continue the journey".

Hopefully they start shooting before they sell.

 

[FPAlpha]

https://www.instagram.com/p/CVgEjP0vs7H/?utm_medium=copy_link

https://twitter.com/Legendary/status/1453058884516466691?t=RXoaYSo-fnyX7uMbnkaWSQ&s=19

Legendary has announced they are going to "continue the journey".

Hopefully they start shooting before they sell.

You just can't help yourself, can you negative Nancy!

 

[crookeddy]

https://variety.com/2021/film/news/dune-part-2-sequel-1235094974/

 

[wayoung]

You just can't help yourself, can you negative Nancy!

I really can't

 

[The Nth Doctor]

https://www.instagram.com/p/CVgEjP0vs7H/?utm_medium=copy_link

https://twitter.com/Legendary/status/1453058884516466691?t=RXoaYSo-fnyX7uMbnkaWSQ&s=19

Legendary has announced they are going to "continue the journey".

Hopefully they start shooting before they sell.

Well, that does certainly feel promising. But considering the bumpy road it took to get the first one and the bumpy road for its release, I'll celebrate once they actually start filming.

 

[vandevere]

Well, that does certainly feel promising. But considering the bumpy road it took to get the first one and the bumpy road for its release, I'll celebrate once they actually start filming.

I won't celebrate until it's released and actually playing in cinemas...

 

[Reverend]

I won't celebrate until the credits roll and it's not credited to that Alan Smithee bugger again.

 

[wayoung]

I won't celebrate until it's released and actually playing in cinemas...

Well, that does certainly feel promising. But considering the bumpy road it took to get the first one and the bumpy road for its release, I'll celebrate once they actually start filming.

There are just too many issues behind the scenes, and the box office was too mediocre. Had it opened to $100 mil domestic it would be inevitable, hard to kill a movie that opened to that considering the situation. But it opened to $40 mil domestic. Lowest opening all fall. Pretty easy for incoming teams to kill.

If it wins some awards that will be a huge help. The IMAX numbers are also a big benefit - I believe it set a record, biggest box office take by proportion. The drop next weekend will be an important factor. The HBOMax numbers are really important (did it drive subscriptions? How many watched it? What demos?) but we'll likely never know them.

Anyway, it cleared a big hurdle. Things look better than they did 12 hours ago. It's just not inevitable yet, and if one franchise knows how close a project can get to filming and still die, it's Dune.

 

[crookeddy]

"Lowest Opening All Fall"


*The Last Duel looks on in tears.

They said streaming will be taken into account, and by many estimates it became the biggest movie ever on HBO Max. That's why it was an easy decision.

 

[crookeddy]

$41,011,174 official 3 day opening weekend for Dune - $1 million over the estimate. That means it made more money than predicted on all 3 days.

 

[wayoung]

"Lowest Opening All Fall"


*The Last Duel looks on in tears.

They said streaming will be taken into account, and by many estimates it became the biggest movie ever on HBO Max. That's why it was an easy decision.

Fair enough. Lowest *Major* opening all fall. Disney sabotaged the shit out of The Last Duel

 

[crookeddy]

Fair enough. Lowest *Major* opening all fall. Disney sabotaged the shit out of The Last Duel

Ah, so you're a conspiracy theorist. Got it.