With Dune Part 1 premiering in Venice this Friday and releasing internationally shortly thereafter, and the habit studios have of making "The sequel has been greenlit" press releases shortly before release, I thought it was time to start up a new thread for the second film.
I put some pretty big caveats half a decade ago when I started the OG thread, and, unfortunately, this sequel is also in a pretty iffy situation thanks to Covid and Warner Brothers. Villeneuve has been more optimistic regarding the chances of a sequel (and a third film, based on Messiah, which he also wants to make) than he was in December 2020 when he said the franchise was dead in the water, although how much of that is PR to try and drive up box office numbers and how much is genuine belief in the possibility of a sequel, we have no way to tell. Fingers crossed.
Current status: Jon Spaihts left his role as showrunner for the Dune TV series, The Sisterhood, in November 2019, supposedly to work on the script for the second film. In April 2021 Eric Roth, who co wrote Dune Part 1 with Spaihts & Villeneuve, said he had finished a treatment for Dune Part 2 that was sitting in limbo. In August 2021 Villeneuve confirmed there is only a treatment, and it is still on pause, however he personally has been working on the script in his own time and believes once they have the go ahead, the script will be finished quickly and filming could commence in Fall 2022. What this means for Spaihts participation is unknown, if he worked with Roth or if he developed his own sequel that was rejected, or if the announcement was purely face saving and he did not contribute to the sequel at all.
As yet another wrench in things, WB itself has been sold and Legendary is up for sale.
Please note: Those "the sequel has already been greenlit" press releases made prior to a films opening are pure marketing, designed to make audiences believe the movie is so good they have to go see it. Until the receipts are counted they mean nothing - as everyone posting on TrekBBS should know after Beyond.
Dune 2018 (19, 20, 21...) thread:
https://www.trekbbs.com/threads/dune-2018-19-20-21.285479/
Post from a month ago regarding the situation with the sequel:
Please note, since the below was written it has been confirmed WB paid out more than $200 million to cast and crew with backend points on their films, although it is unknown if that is in house productions only, like DC, or includes outside productions they are the distributors for, like Dune. As mentioned above, Denis Villeneuve has also been more optimistic regarding the sequels chances since the below was written. Meanwhile, directors whose films have released under WB's day & digital plan, most recently Party Jenkins, have continued to speak out about how this has negatively affected their films.
A lot of people posting in threads keep saying that WB made the movie and that WB needs to make the money for the sequel. Rent the VOD so WB gets more money.
This is false.
LEGENDARY made the movie. Legendary (and it's investors) paid for the movie. Legendary has the adaptation rights. WB only has the *distribution rights*. Which is why they were able to make the day and digital decision without consulting anyone from Legendary, resulting in the last 8 months of negotiations between WB, Legendary, Villeneuve, the cast, the DGA, the SAG, and the WGA.
WB DOES make more money from VOD than theatrical. That's true. That's also the *problem*. WB gets paid 2 - 3 times for each digital rental - HBO Max's cut, WB's cut, and AT&T's cut for the internet subscription/bandwidth. This is actually self dealing and is why distributors/studios are legally banned from owning theater chains.
Legendary makes its money from the theatrical showings. Villeneuve, and the cast members who gave up salary for points on the back end, make their money from the theatrical showings.
WB is going to make their money back. Legendary may not. If Legendary doesn't make their money back, they won't make a sequel. They have investors they have to placate. If a deal isn't reached with Villeneuve & the cast with back end points, they won't return for a sequel. Why would they, after losing millions of dollars they believed they earned from the first one? I wouldn't. They all have other options.
This is also why this is not comparable to Black Widow or DC films. Those are *owned and made* by Disney & WB. Unlike Dune, which is owned and made by Legendary. They are also films in franchises with dozens of other entries, and it's more important to continue putting out new entries to keep the franchises active and in the public conscious than to worry about losing money on any one entry.
It's also not the same as Godzilla vs Kong. Godzilla vs Kong was the 4th film in an ongoing franchise, with a TV series already in production, and other films in pre-production. Godzilla vs Kong had a built in floor value. Netflix had offered Legendary $225 million for the rights to make Godzilla vs Kong streaming on their service. WB scuttled the deal because they were still the distributors, then announced Godzilla vs Kong would release on HBO Max. Because of this floor valuation WB had to pay Legendary more than Netflix was going too.
For WW84 Gal Gadot and Patty Jenkins were paid $10 million *each* to make up for back end loss and to promote the movie. This deal only applied to Gadot & Jenkins, which is why Pine was so silent on the film's release - they didn't pay him. WW84 is also made and distributed by WB, and is part of an ongoing franchise, where it's worth it for one film to not make a profit if it expands the overall franchise.
None of these factors - owned & released by the same company, part of an ongoing series where more entries are more important than individual success, floor valuations baked in, deals struck with cast & crew who had theatrical back end points - none of them - apply to Dune.
Now, hopefully some agreement has been reached by all the interested parties so that Legendary, Villeneuve, and the rest aren't going to be screwed, and the movie can be successful enough for all involved to continue the franchise, but so far nothing has been announced. WB is notorious for screwing over partners & creatives. George Millar's lawsuits regarding Fury Road were only recently settled, allowing him to make Furiosa.
The last word we have on Dune is Villeneuve saying this was the end of the franchise. That was 8 months ago. Since then there has been no movement on the sequel or the HBO series (HBO & Legendary co production), all of which Villeneuve was to oversee and direct.
Now, I personally believe no news is *probably* good news. We know Villeneuve isn't one to keep quiet, so the fact that he hasn't continued to be vocal regarding the film makes me think that negotiations are still going, and in good faith. Marketing beginning to kick in gear that also makes me think an arrangement is close. But nothing has been announced yet.
In conclusion: WB didn't make Dune. WB doesn't decide if a sequel happens. WB isn't the one who needs to make their money back - they're gonna get their investment back. It's LEGENDARY, Villeneuve, and the cast that need to make their money back, which, as of now, comes from theatrical tickets, not VOD.
This post isn't to say don't go VOD. You can, sure. Who knows, come October it might not even be safe to be in theaters again. This whole Covid thing is a crap shoot. It's to correct misinformation that's being passed around in other threads.
Villeneuve Open Letter
https://variety.com/2020/film/news/dune-denis-villeneuve-blasts-warner-bros-1234851270/
I put some pretty big caveats half a decade ago when I started the OG thread, and, unfortunately, this sequel is also in a pretty iffy situation thanks to Covid and Warner Brothers. Villeneuve has been more optimistic regarding the chances of a sequel (and a third film, based on Messiah, which he also wants to make) than he was in December 2020 when he said the franchise was dead in the water, although how much of that is PR to try and drive up box office numbers and how much is genuine belief in the possibility of a sequel, we have no way to tell. Fingers crossed.
Current status: Jon Spaihts left his role as showrunner for the Dune TV series, The Sisterhood, in November 2019, supposedly to work on the script for the second film. In April 2021 Eric Roth, who co wrote Dune Part 1 with Spaihts & Villeneuve, said he had finished a treatment for Dune Part 2 that was sitting in limbo. In August 2021 Villeneuve confirmed there is only a treatment, and it is still on pause, however he personally has been working on the script in his own time and believes once they have the go ahead, the script will be finished quickly and filming could commence in Fall 2022. What this means for Spaihts participation is unknown, if he worked with Roth or if he developed his own sequel that was rejected, or if the announcement was purely face saving and he did not contribute to the sequel at all.
As yet another wrench in things, WB itself has been sold and Legendary is up for sale.
Please note: Those "the sequel has already been greenlit" press releases made prior to a films opening are pure marketing, designed to make audiences believe the movie is so good they have to go see it. Until the receipts are counted they mean nothing - as everyone posting on TrekBBS should know after Beyond.
Dune 2018 (19, 20, 21...) thread:
https://www.trekbbs.com/threads/dune-2018-19-20-21.285479/
Post from a month ago regarding the situation with the sequel:
Please note, since the below was written it has been confirmed WB paid out more than $200 million to cast and crew with backend points on their films, although it is unknown if that is in house productions only, like DC, or includes outside productions they are the distributors for, like Dune. As mentioned above, Denis Villeneuve has also been more optimistic regarding the sequels chances since the below was written. Meanwhile, directors whose films have released under WB's day & digital plan, most recently Party Jenkins, have continued to speak out about how this has negatively affected their films.
A lot of people posting in threads keep saying that WB made the movie and that WB needs to make the money for the sequel. Rent the VOD so WB gets more money.
This is false.
LEGENDARY made the movie. Legendary (and it's investors) paid for the movie. Legendary has the adaptation rights. WB only has the *distribution rights*. Which is why they were able to make the day and digital decision without consulting anyone from Legendary, resulting in the last 8 months of negotiations between WB, Legendary, Villeneuve, the cast, the DGA, the SAG, and the WGA.
WB DOES make more money from VOD than theatrical. That's true. That's also the *problem*. WB gets paid 2 - 3 times for each digital rental - HBO Max's cut, WB's cut, and AT&T's cut for the internet subscription/bandwidth. This is actually self dealing and is why distributors/studios are legally banned from owning theater chains.
Legendary makes its money from the theatrical showings. Villeneuve, and the cast members who gave up salary for points on the back end, make their money from the theatrical showings.
WB is going to make their money back. Legendary may not. If Legendary doesn't make their money back, they won't make a sequel. They have investors they have to placate. If a deal isn't reached with Villeneuve & the cast with back end points, they won't return for a sequel. Why would they, after losing millions of dollars they believed they earned from the first one? I wouldn't. They all have other options.
This is also why this is not comparable to Black Widow or DC films. Those are *owned and made* by Disney & WB. Unlike Dune, which is owned and made by Legendary. They are also films in franchises with dozens of other entries, and it's more important to continue putting out new entries to keep the franchises active and in the public conscious than to worry about losing money on any one entry.
It's also not the same as Godzilla vs Kong. Godzilla vs Kong was the 4th film in an ongoing franchise, with a TV series already in production, and other films in pre-production. Godzilla vs Kong had a built in floor value. Netflix had offered Legendary $225 million for the rights to make Godzilla vs Kong streaming on their service. WB scuttled the deal because they were still the distributors, then announced Godzilla vs Kong would release on HBO Max. Because of this floor valuation WB had to pay Legendary more than Netflix was going too.
For WW84 Gal Gadot and Patty Jenkins were paid $10 million *each* to make up for back end loss and to promote the movie. This deal only applied to Gadot & Jenkins, which is why Pine was so silent on the film's release - they didn't pay him. WW84 is also made and distributed by WB, and is part of an ongoing franchise, where it's worth it for one film to not make a profit if it expands the overall franchise.
None of these factors - owned & released by the same company, part of an ongoing series where more entries are more important than individual success, floor valuations baked in, deals struck with cast & crew who had theatrical back end points - none of them - apply to Dune.
Now, hopefully some agreement has been reached by all the interested parties so that Legendary, Villeneuve, and the rest aren't going to be screwed, and the movie can be successful enough for all involved to continue the franchise, but so far nothing has been announced. WB is notorious for screwing over partners & creatives. George Millar's lawsuits regarding Fury Road were only recently settled, allowing him to make Furiosa.
The last word we have on Dune is Villeneuve saying this was the end of the franchise. That was 8 months ago. Since then there has been no movement on the sequel or the HBO series (HBO & Legendary co production), all of which Villeneuve was to oversee and direct.
Now, I personally believe no news is *probably* good news. We know Villeneuve isn't one to keep quiet, so the fact that he hasn't continued to be vocal regarding the film makes me think that negotiations are still going, and in good faith. Marketing beginning to kick in gear that also makes me think an arrangement is close. But nothing has been announced yet.
In conclusion: WB didn't make Dune. WB doesn't decide if a sequel happens. WB isn't the one who needs to make their money back - they're gonna get their investment back. It's LEGENDARY, Villeneuve, and the cast that need to make their money back, which, as of now, comes from theatrical tickets, not VOD.
This post isn't to say don't go VOD. You can, sure. Who knows, come October it might not even be safe to be in theaters again. This whole Covid thing is a crap shoot. It's to correct misinformation that's being passed around in other threads.
Villeneuve Open Letter
https://variety.com/2020/film/news/dune-denis-villeneuve-blasts-warner-bros-1234851270/
