Considering that tv channels SPECIFICALLY set out to have shows premier after a football game so there's a lead in its fair to say they will not hit that 11.6 million number again this year. The second episode was at 7.6 million which is still amazing....but you know...that's a heavy drop. Now they are moving to Thursday where according to all the media mags, shows and sites is a heavy competition night. Also, as far as 1.1 being enough to keep it on tv, eeeesh. This is not a high budget production, but it is definitely higher budget than your typical sitcom. There's alot of costs in just makeup. Now everyone brings up firefly with good SciFi shows and fox as a tale of caution. I posit to you something MUCH more recent, 2011s terra nova. A higher budget SciFi tv show which not only reviewed well (71 % rotten tomatoes) but debuted to a 9.6 million and it's season finale was 7.6 million. Now those seasons numbers can be verified on Wikipedia I can't seem to find episode by episode but I distinctly remember it averaging about five million an episode because I loved that show and was following to make sure it would get renewed. Not is Orville as expensive as terra nova? I would bet not. BUT, 1.1 is a third of what Simpsons and family guy do, and less also than American dad. If it's going to pull 1.1 million it will not survive
Discovery and "The Orville" Comparisons
- Thread starter Jedi_Master
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Considering that tv channels SPECIFICALLY set out to have shows premier after a football game so there's a lead in its fair to say they will not hit that 11.6 million number again this year. The second episode was at 7.6 million which is still amazing....but you know...that's a heavy drop. Now they are moving to Thursday where according to all the media mags, shows and sites is a heavy competition night. Also, as far as 1.1 being enough to keep it on tv, eeeesh. This is not a high budget production, but it is definitely higher budget than your typical sitcom. There's alot of costs in just makeup. Now everyone brings up firefly with good SciFi shows and fox as a tale of caution. I posit to you something MUCH more recent, 2011s terra nova. A higher budget SciFi tv show which not only reviewed well (71 % rotten tomatoes) but debuted to a 9.6 million and it's season finale was 7.6 million. Now those seasons numbers can be verified on Wikipedia I can't seem to find episode by episode but I distinctly remember it averaging about five million an episode because I loved that show and was following to make sure it would get renewed. Not is Orville as expensive as terra nova? I would bet not. BUT, 1.1 is a third of what Simpsons and family guy do, and less also than American dad. If it's going to pull 1.1 million it will not survive
What is so bad about Discovery to you? And frankly, I find this simile to be ridiculous in the extreme.
Missed the first ep of The Orville. Made it 15 minutes into the 2nd before deciding the book I'm reading was better use of my time. Going to give Discovery much more than 15 minutes to win me over. I call it a built-in bias.
Amazing show, amazing concept! It's funny I always just assumed the Orville would get renewed with a pretty low bar to pass because it's a Seth MacFarlane show on fox. But then I remembered the Cleveland Show and THEN I remembered that not only did terra nova have good reviews and good tv ratings it ALSO had Steven Spielbergs name prominently attached. There is going to be no free pass for the orville, it's going to have to fight to survive like everything else. To bring it back to the disco vs redenbaucher situation I actually think in a way having premier on tv and then the rest on their service is genius. EVERYONE who knows anything about Star trek will check in to see that show, even the people who troll it just so they can then make a detailed video or post later in explaining how they were right all along and why it's doomed *rolls eyes*. So what happens? Massive episode numbers and then it gets put on all access where they will control the narrative. Where even if its not because of star trek they will be able to say "subscriptions have gone up since star trek has become an all access property etc".
Yeah, Star trek does not need the ratings, those do not even count for subscriptions. They need sales and people who keep truing in. Its a different rating systems and shows like GoT and Daredevil shows it can work and work well.
Nothing so "bad" about Discovery other than it should have been a reboot (I'm treating it as such). That and, in the trailers, it is missing a sense of wonder and fun that I associate with 23rd century Star Trek.
It really isn't ridiculous. CBS isn't going to allow the creators to take any chances that could damage the franchise. Much like a franchise owner isn't allowed to mess with the corporate recipe. So it all ends up tasting very much the same.
I like aspects of Tera Nova. From what I recall, they THOUGHT they had been renewed as the final episode was billed as, "the Season finale" and I doubt FOX's marketing team would have let that slip.
A lot of times they do that when they don't have a decision.
Perhaps sees some similarities between Family Guy and The Simpsons. Or Orville and Star Trek, or American Dad and Family Guy - can you plagiarise yourself? You can if you're Seth MacFarlane. And I'd also agree that I don't find his juvenile hit and miss sense of humour very funny, but that is of course a personal thing.Okay, what exactly did he plagiarize, according to you?
I think you are confusing rating with number of viewers. I think a 1.1 rating in the 18-49 demographic will likely be enough. Considering that FOX has renewed a bunch of shows with a worse rating, I don't think this is so farfetched to assume. It is also a Seth MarFarlane show, someone who FOX likely wants to keep happy. So as long as it is not a real ratings flop, I think they will give it another season.
The Orville had these live + same day ratings so far:
episode 1: 2.7 rating - 8.558 million viewers
episode 2: 2.2 rating - 6.631 million viewers
That isn't such a big drop considering that the 2nd episode started 48 minutes later than planned.
And Terra Nova is ancient history, when it comes to TV ratings. FOX doesn't get such high ratings nowadays anymore. If Terra Nova would have gotten those ratings today, it would be considered a great success. But the 2.1 - 2.2 ratings it got in its later episodes were for a series in 2011 not so good anymore. And the show was very expensive.
I think The Orville is cheaper and would especially be so for a second season. The sets are already built, the aliens, uniforms, etc. are already designed. And special effects are nowadays also easier to do on a tight budget.
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Cancelled:
24: legacy- 1.40
Son of zorn-1.29
Pitch-dark-.86
Those are the ratings in 18-49. Do I think Orville will get renewed? Yes. Do I think it hitting 1.1 will make it a massive fox success? No.
I didn't catch it when it actually showed but episode 2 had a better lead-in than the first episode. Since the NFL game went late, FOX skipped the post-game "The OT".
Episode 1 had "The OT" as a lead-in (which finaled at a 4.2 rating), while episode 2 had the actual end of the NFL game as a lead-in (which finaled at a 6.5). So while episode 1 dropped 35.7% from its lead-in, episode 2 dropped 66.2% from its lead-in.
Still good numbers overall though. But Thursday will be more telling of how it will do. It's lead-in is "Gotham," whose season finale had a 1.0 rating last season.
I'd say your assessment is mostly correct although it's been stated that The Orville (like Terra Nova before it) is an expensive show to produce; so they may need to see it do a bit better in the ratings for an ROI good enough to let it continue.
(IE the cost VS ratings performance is probably why FOX ultimately decided to pull Terra Nova after first indicating it would most likely be picked up.))
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You've managed to say much more succinctly what I was trying to get across. For a sitcom the Orville numbers are fantastic, they'd be over the moon for half those numbers. But it is a pricier show
I meant The Orville will likely get renewed, if the episodes don't fall below a 1.1 rating. That wasn't clear, sorry. I don't mean the season average, which will of course be boosted by the first two episodes.
The last two episodes of Son of Zorn got a 0.6 and 0.7 rating.
And 9 of the 12 episodes of 24: Legacy had a lower rating than 1.1. At the end it only had a 0.8 rating. The only reason 24 got a 1.4 season rating average was thanks to the Super Bowl. The pilot aired after it and got a 6.1 rating and over 17 million viewers. This boosted the season average extremely.
True, the lead in was better for the 2nd episode. But on the other hand the competition for the first 30 minutes was harder the second time. It ran against Sunday Night Football the whole time. The first episode had only the pre-game show as competition for the first half hour.
But yes the real test will be on Thursday. That will be a completely new situation.
There's more to it now than just the Neilsen numbers. There's Fox Now, Hulu, overseas rights are more front and center. There's lots of ways to view now beyond the traditional TV model.
No need to apologize! God knows it was probably more my reading comprehension than anything you did
. Regardless, yeah I fully expect it to get renewed, I'm just wondering what that internal "magic" number is at Fox studios that would garauntee a renewal. Bigger budget is going to need a bigger rating.So I just looked it up....this is interesting. The Cleveland Show in its final year 2011-2012 averaged 1.8 with most episodes at a 1 rating. That's much higher than I assumed. Considering how much higher the budget would be on Orville and fox shows not having as high ratings as 6 years, I'd say (to my mind atleast) 1.8 is a decent cut off point to what they need to hit
I really don't think they have such high minimum expectations. That are Simpsons numbers. Only Empire does better. If FOX requires such high ratings from The Orville to be a financial success, they wouldn't have greenlit it in the first place.
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