Discovery a Netflix hit
- Thread starter Lonemagpie
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I can clearly remember one time, on July 31 1997, when BBC2 aired the DS9 episode Paradise Lost, part II.
I timed the VHS recorder, because I was on vacation. When I returned home and watched the recording, the first part was some kind of sporting event and I missed at least the last 15 minutes of that episode. At the time I was really angry about that.
I had to wait for five years, when the DVDs came out, before I could finally see the ending to that episode.
I am really happy with Netflix, now I can see a new Star Trek Discovery episode a day after it can be viewed in the States. I'm one of those subscribers who subscribed specially to see Discovery. And it also handy to see 2-part Star Trek episodes, without having to change the DVD disc. And to watch some other shows/films besides Star Trek.
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I don't think DSC is going to end anytime soon, nor do I think it is horrible.
That being said those numbers are pretty flawed and should be taken with a massive grain of salt.
These aren't exact numbers of people viewing.......heck most of this data is taken from what they call "demand expressions" which they classify as "All demand expressions, such as social media comments or P2P file downloads, are captured with no panels or extrapolation involved."
So hashtags, facebook likes, and pirating all help them to form the number they ultimately come up with. It might be a good sign that a lot of people are interested in the show or interested in typing about it but without CBSAA or Netflix providing actual numbers instead of vague statements there is just noway to know how many paying customers are watching the show.
Not all North Americans. I'm enjoying watching Discovery on Space, which was already part of my cable package!
Although CBSAA is apparently launching in Canada next year, so I don't know what that means for Discovery moving forward. I don't know if the deal with Space covers the entire run of the series, or only the first season.
This debate over whether Discovery is successful or not reminds me of the debates from back in the day with those claiming that TNG would have been considered a bomb if it were on an actual network instead of syndication, as a way of downplaying how popular it actually was.
Also similar, despite whatever your leanings might be, to the reaction to the 2009 film's critical and financial success.
Lots and lots of rationalization.
Yup. I have a great idea of why the 2009 film was immensely popular and entertaining, and it's something that both eludes its fans and critics because they're too busy debating about the minutia.
Nope. Not even to the people that supply the content to them.
Netflix has no incentive to ever say that DSC is a hit with its subscribers, quite the contrary. Such an admission would only drive up the licensing fee for future seasons.
A second seasonis a totally given IMO, even if DIS massively underperforms. CBS All Access is likely not willing to give up their biggest show - and All Access with it -, only because it didn't met high expectations.
What will be really telling is how much Netflix is willing to pay CBS for a second season - THAT will be a measurable quantity of success, the only one we will likely have for a long time.
If they're willing to pay more than for S1 - the show is an unambigious success. If they are willing to pay less than for S1, it underperformed. And that is a number they most likely have to tell their investors - that means we will know of it from the news. If they don't want to buy S2 at all, DIS is a failure, but I think we can rule this possibility already out by this point
I'm not sure that number will be all that informative and might speak more to the negotiation skills of the Netflix execs rather than the performance of DIS. CBS will not know the Netflix viewership numbers so even if it is a massive hit, the Netflix people could go to CBS and say: "Yeah, we guess it's doing okay, we'd like to renew, but didn't your CEO say we're already paying for basically all of it, so why don't you scrape off a million or two from the fee."
Just because Netflix doesn't make viewership numbers available to the public, does not mean they can do the same thing to the guys they are buying content from. The first season was a big bet on the performance. For the second one, both sides will know the real monetary value of the show. The result of the negotiations will reflect that.
Of course, it won't be a definite number - tv never works that way, even on broadcast shows with a higher amount of viewers sometimes get cancelled while ones with fewer viewers renewed, for different factors, like the production cost, or if the company thinks they can have a bigger audience on the same airing spot.
But it will be A number, and one that is pretty close to the actual performance of DIS. And most importantly, it will be the only number that will be available to us - the public - for a long time.
Unless the Netflix DIS viewership was verifiably horrible, why would Netflix volunteer that information to CBS? As discussed above, Netflix never shares their numbers with content producers, for the obvious reason that that information gives them the upper hand in negotiations. I'd argue that Netflix has a pretty good read on the monetary value of DIS, but I'm not sure that CBS does.
Netflix can compare the hard metrics of DIS to the dozens of other flagship original content on their platform, but CBS All-Access basically only has (with apologies to The Good Fight) DIS. CBS can look at subscriber growth and the like, but it's pretty much guesswork how DIS would have performed on another platform like broadcast or cable. So if the CBS All-Access numbers are underwhelming, they don't really know whether it is DIS' or the platform's fault.
And for that reason it virtually impossible for CBS to cancel DIS after one season. It is the latest installment of a tentpole franchise and got fairly good reviews across the board. Say what you will about the series, but it is not Marvel's Inhumans. A cancellation now will clearly be perceived by investors and the media as an indictment of All-Access rather than DIS. So the predicament CBS finds itself in gives a clear advantage to Netflix in any negotiations, which is why I don't think the Netflix licensing fee, at least for Season 2, will be all that informative.
I would presume CBS already baked in a second season option with Netflix, since funding of the show (and essentially the future success of CBSAA) is contingent on Netflix paying for it.
Remember it's billed as 'A Netflix Original' - they are going to have more influence than just a regular foreign broadcaster.
Remember it's billed as 'A Netflix Original' - they are going to have more influence than just a regular foreign broadcaster.
They do keep the number from people they buy content from which is frustrating many because they don’t know what to ask for. Same for actors in Netflix Originals.
Which is all why neilson is trying to find ways to measure streaming numbers.
Netflix sure as hell don't need to "volunteer" that information to CBS. If CBS makes that a condition, they have to. This is a CBS-production, not a Netflix one. Netflix contributes a lot of money to gain first-airing rights overseas. CBS contributes the content, and with it the terms and conditions.
Netflix original means nothing. Shows that air on regular network tv in the us can be Netflix original overseas. All that means is they have exclusive rights in that region and nothing more.
They could have asked for it but I doubt they got it because nobody gets that and once Netflix allows one company all will ask for it.
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