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crookeddy said:
And just as I was having momentary clarity in my awful depression, I read this: https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-19-los-angeles-to-shelter-in-place-for-months-2020-3 ...

Apparently my friends and family will die and my city will have hundreds of thousands of deaths. And he's not saying this conditionally. He is saying this will happen no matter what we do.
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They're on the verge of being overrun with cases, I'd agree, but the whole "the sky is falling" hundreds of thousands dead cry is still too soon to guarantee imho. A hundred thousand cases is possible there, maybe a few hundred, if the response goes terribly, but the death rate is still hovering around 1-2% among those. Hopefully, when we come out the other end of this, months from now, We may yet escape with less than 50K dead nationally, & that is truly tragic, but it ain't people dying all around us, when you consider we might get over a million cases. Don't make plans to attend church with the Trumps on Easter, but we will see it subside eventually... at least if we hold the course

I just think we can't use NYC as a metric for how this will hit the whole nation. That place is the perfect storm of spreading infection. They're a population of over 8 million, in an area of about 300 square miles, living in each other's laps, & are the biggest hub of international traffic on the whole continent. Those people may end up half or more of our total numbers, & if they're leaving town, they need to quarantine like they've been told to
 
crookeddy said:
And just as I was having momentary clarity in my awful depression, I read this: https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-19-los-angeles-to-shelter-in-place-for-months-2020-3 ...

Apparently my friends and family will die and my city will have hundreds of thousands of deaths. And he's not saying this conditionally. He is saying this will happen no matter what we do.
Click to expand...
No, your friends and family will not die. As long as people are reasonably - and the Angelenos are quite more so than many others, for example in a office of an oblong shape) - they will keep to the necessary rules: keep a distance, go out only if vitally necessary and stick to the lockdown rules.
It does work, as the receeding figures of new infections both in China and Bavaria proove.
There will be new infections, since surely many people carry the virus unknowingly. However, compared to most other cities in the US, LA is much less densely populated (thanks to the earthquakes) : the buildings are lower - generally only 2-4 stories, rarely more - there is space between them. The infrastructure is good: in all the city you can reach a supermarket without using public transport. You have a climate that boosts the immune system (hot days but quite cold winds at night). And you have some of the best hospitals in the country.
The situation in LA is so much better than for example in NY. Don't let the stress and the cabin-fever get to you: your chances are good. If I had a choice in which major US city to be right now, I'd pick LA.

LOL, cross-posting, Mojochi :) Great minds ;)
 
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Mojochi said:
They're on the verge of being overrun with cases, I'd agree, but the whole "the sky is falling" hundreds of thousands dead cry is still too soon to guarantee imho. A hundred thousand cases is possible there, maybe a few hundred, if the response goes terribly, but the death rate is still hovering around 1-2% among those. Hopefully, when we come out the other end of this, months from now, We may yet escape with less than 50K dead nationally, & that is truly tragic, but it ain't people dying all around us, when you consider we might get over a million cases. Don't make plans to attend church with the Trumps on Easter, but we will see it subside eventually... at least if we hold the course

I just think we can't use NYC as a metric for how this will hit the whole nation. That place is the perfect storm of spreading infection. They're a population of over 8 million, in an area of about 300 square miles, living in each other's laps, & are the biggest hub of international traffic on the whole continent. Those people may end up half or more of our total numbers, & if they're leaving town, they need to quarantine like they've been told to
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Just a single hundred thousand dead in L.A. would be a full 2.5% of the entire population and would probably require an infection rate of like 75%+. I suppose such a thing is possible, but considering that we've already sheltered in place for a week now, I don't understand why it would be at all likely unless social distancing just does absolutely nothing...
 
That's a somewhat optimistic calculation. This virus has an unusually high mutation rate and has already started to split up into subtypes and new forms. It is relatively easy to make a vaccination against one type. But in this case we need a broadband one against all subtypes. It's like with the common flu: there are different types around and the usual 4-fold vaccinations are against the 4 most propably strains. But it can happen that you get vaccinated and then encounter a cousin of the 4 and you turn out to not be immune against #5.

However, the majority of those infected by the virus recover and are then at least immune against the strain most common in their respective areas. And by keeping apart from each other we can buy time. A lot can happen to a virus on the way to the next host. And the longer that way (both in time and distance), the weaker the virus gets. If we slow down the infection rate and protect the weakest (i.e. the sick and old people), we can get the scientists more time for finding a vaccine and at the same time deprive the virus of its prey, thus minimizing its chances to mutate. And that, in turn, makes it easier to find a vaccine.

(edited to eliminate a ton of typos. If only there was a vaccination against mistyping words!)
 
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rhubarbodendron said:
That's a somewhat optimistic calculation. This virus has an unusually high mutation rate and has already started to split up into subtypes and new forms. It is relatively easy to make a vaccination against one type. But in this case we need a broadband one against all subtypes. It's like with the commonflu: there are different types around and the usual 4-foild vaccinations are against the 4 most propably strains. But it can happen that you get vaccinated and then encounter a cousin of the 4 and you turn out to not be iummune against #5.

However, the majority of those infected by the virus recover and are then at least immune against the strain most common in their respective areas. And by keeping apart from each other we can buy time. A lot can happen to a virus on the way to the next host. And the longer that way (both in time and distance), the weaker the virus gets. If we slow down the infection rate and protect the weakest (i.e. the sick and old people), we can get the scientists more time for finding a vaccine and at the same time deprive the virus of its prey, thus minimizing its chances to mutate. And that, in turn, makes it easier to find a vaccine.
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You are attempting to use logic, that does not normally compu...
 
Well, that lasted long, I've been working from home for less than four days and I've just been furloughed from my job until further notice and placed on 80% of my salary (thank god the government has put this in place).
 
crookeddy said:
Just a single hundred thousand dead in L.A. would be a full 2.5% of the entire population and would probably require an infection rate of like 75%+. I suppose such a thing is possible, but considering that we've already sheltered in place for a week now, I don't understand why it would be at all likely unless social distancing just does absolutely nothing...
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And I've already heard is has had some positive effect. Maybe it's not noticeable in the major metropolises yet, but I'm less than 250 miles from NYC, & as of 24 hours ago, my Onondaga county (pop. 465K) has only had 65 cases. Monroe county (747K) has 118, Erie County (925K) has 122, & Albany county (307K) has 152. That accounts for most of the largest of the state's other population clusters, that are north & west of the Catskill & Adirondack Mts. That (so far) seems better contained than you'd think, to hear the news out of NY. It's sure to keep going up for a while, but I'm optimistic the proportions will keep about the same

Maybe I'm an idiot for thinking so, but I don't foresee a hundred thousand dead in California. I'd hazard a guess that maybe LA gets upwards of 100K cases, & some of the other population clusters slightly above half that, & in total, if the mortality rate stays at 1-2%, they end up with 1000-2000 deaths statewide, but maybe I'm just being optimistic

We're doing the right thing here. How long we can hold out practicing it.... is another issue
 
Today's news from Italy is pretty much the end. Everyone has assumed that they finally reached their peak on March 21 and were heading for a decline. Instead it's a new record number of new cases today. Now I am panicking, as it pretty much confirms that the virus cannot be stopped by lockdowns... so basically it cannot be stopped in the western world.
 
Don't panic, please. My apologies for sounding racist but in Italy people tend to have big families, many friends and to live closely together. It is very likely that many were infected before they noticed it and then infected all their families who in turn passed the infection on, unknowingly. The incubation time (the time between first contact with the virus and the outbreak of the illness) can be more than 2 weeks. It was therefore to be expected that the number of ill people would increase during quarantine. I'd estimate that after 4 weeks of quarantine there should be a first little decrease. After 3 months it should be significant. Just look at China: there it worked. Why shouldn't it work a few thousand miles further west?

@Smellmet : that sucks :( But compared to the situation in the US where people get sacked and get not a cent/penny compensation you're still pretty well off.
What are you going to do now? Will you do community work? In my town, temporarily unemployed people go shopping for disabled or elderly citizens, or they pack care parcels for people with a low income, or give private lessons, online, to pupils. Most members of my needlework club are sewing face masks - they get the material delivered to their door and the finished ones fetched for distribution to the local hospitals and nursing homes. These masks are to be worn by sick people (other sicknesses, not Corona) and by those who nurse them. They are no full protection against the virus (!) but they lower the risk a good deal as they make it impossible for droplets to spread. This way it's harder for sick people to infect their nurses and it's harder for nurses to infect patients with an additional germ that might kill them off. Also, it's propably a form of occupational therapy ;)
(You can find a sewing pattern here: https://www.deggendorf.de/fileadmin/media/pdf/Mund-Nasen-Schutz_Naehanleitung.pdf it's in German but the pics are rather self-explanatory. The red string inserted at the top is a wire. All the material must be machine washable at 90°C. Masks must be washed after every use, i.e. daily)
 
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I am sorry, but it's too late for me not to panic. Looking at the numbers in New York, Madrid not showing any signs of peaking, and now Italy's lockdown being a failure, today is the day I completely lost all hope. This thing is burning through us like wildfire and we can't do anything to stop it. I know despair doesn't help anything... but it's just all so hopeless.
 
We're up to 6 cases in my city, one being in their 20's and one in their 30's, both close contacts of other confirmed cases elsewhere in Ontario. Disappointing, but not unexpected. For a long while, we sat at 2 cases, but over the last week and a half, it's jumped.

We have to be vigilant. This isn't going to get better without us doing our part. Practice social distancing and stay in isolation unless absolutely necessary.

crookeddy said:
and now Italy's lockdown being a failure,
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Actually, if anything, I've heard that it has peaked due to the lockdown and that they've actually started seeing a decrease.
 
crookeddy said:
Today's news from Italy is pretty much the end. Everyone has assumed that they finally reached their peak on March 21 and were heading for a decline. Instead it's a new record number of new cases today. Now I am panicking, as it pretty much confirms that the virus cannot be stopped by lockdowns... so basically it cannot be stopped in the western world.
Click to expand...
Don't panic until we see if today's figure is part of a trend. If it's still going up in a few more days...
 
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