News Coronavirus Pandemic Information and Support Group

Discussion in 'Miscellaneous' started by EmoBorg, Feb 1, 2020.

  1. EmoBorg

    EmoBorg Commodore Commodore

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    As many of you might know, The World Health Organization has declared a global public health emergency over the Coronavirus outbreak.

    https://www.theverge.com/2020/1/30/...al-public-emergency-world-health-organization

    Be safe. Wash your hands regularly and use a surgical mask if heading to international airports.

    Transmission Rate (Ro)
    (Estimated for 2019-nCoV)
    3 - 4
    (3- 4 newly infected from 1 case)

    Fatality Rate (CFR)
    (very early estimate)
    2%
    (2 deaths for every 100 cases)

    Incubation Period
    (Estimated for 2019-nCoV)
    2 - 14 days
    (up to 2 weeks without symptoms)

    COUNTRIES and TERRITORIES
    (Affected by 2019-nCoV)
    28
    (full list)
     
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2020
  2. Avro Arrow

    Avro Arrow Vice Admiral Moderator

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    I've read a couple articles that have indicated that surgical masks would be largely useless as protection against 2019-nCoV. They indicated that an N95 mask could actually help, but they can be challenging for non-specialists to wear properly.

    https://www.livescience.com/face-mask-new-coronavirus.html

    Just for a little compare and contrast, here are the approximate fatality rates for:

    MERS - 34%
    SARS - 10%
    Seasonal Influenza - 0.13%
    H1N1 - 0.02%

    Canada currently has 4 confirmed cases... the fourth case was just recently announced, and is in my own city. (The other cases were in Toronto (2) and Vancouver (1).) The patient's original tests from an Ontario lab came back negative, but testing was also done in a federal lab in Winnipeg, which came back positive. Apparently the federal lab does more tests than the Ontario lab does. The province is now working with the feds to update our testing protocols.
     
  3. EmoBorg

    EmoBorg Commodore Commodore

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    N95 masks do indeed offer better protection. When haze from forest fires affected my country several times, N95 masks were often used as protection against the haze.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2020
  4. JirinPanthosa

    JirinPanthosa Admiral Admiral

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    Those 2% are mostly old people, infants and immune compromised people, right? Or are any healthy adults?
     
  5. EmoBorg

    EmoBorg Commodore Commodore

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    I think it is mostly old people and immune compromised people. But i am sure there were some previously healthy people who died as well.
     
  6. rhubarbodendron

    rhubarbodendron Vice Admiral Admiral

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    I think you can't compare the situation in China with the situation in Australia, the US or Europe. Neither of our countries are that densely populated, we are prewarned, our hospitals are better and most people have an inoculation against flu, particularly against SARS which was biochemically very similar to the current virus.
    China releases only little data but it seems that indeed so far only infants, old people and patients with a damaged immune system have died. The only death outside China has occurred on the Philippines and as my Philipine in-laws assure me, their hospitals don't live up to our standards.
    So, on the whole, none of us is likely to land on the danger list.

    Our health authorities, too, say that masks are of no use. If at all, the patients ough to wear them in order to stop the virus spreading. And they agree that washing your hands frequently, eating healthy and avoiding crowds is the best way to protect yourself.
    We have 10 cases in germany, 8 of them in Bavaria. The Bavarian ones are 6 adults who all work at the same company and got infected at a meeting with a Chinese colleague, and 2 family members of one of them. Sadly, one is a child. 3 of the adults are already without symptoms again, the other 4 adults and the child have only the mildest of symptoms (slightly raised temperature and a mild cough).
     
  7. EmoBorg

    EmoBorg Commodore Commodore

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    Last edited: Feb 5, 2020
  8. thestrangequark

    thestrangequark Admiral Admiral

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    I hope you get your flu shot every year.
     
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  9. rhubarbodendron

    rhubarbodendron Vice Admiral Admiral

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    we have 2 more cases now: the sibling of the sick child and another adult from the same company. None of the 12 patients suffers from anything worse than high temperature.
    However, considering that with one exception (a family member) all the adults work at the same company, it's impressive how infectuous this virus is. Colleagues don't get as close as family members, and the risk of infection sinks with the distance simply because the viruses must spread over a larger radius and thus get diluted. So it seems to be one of those germs where a very low number is sufficient to infect a victim. From the pov of a biologist it's a rather admirable organism, though of course I realize that the patients and doctors must neccessarily have a different opinion.
     
  10. Crazyewok

    Crazyewok Commodore Commodore

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    I think the mortality rate is much lower.

    With Chinese hospitals overflowing and quite frankly undesirable places to be in a pandemic, most people with the virus are staying at home.
    With symptoms being mild for most, they are likely getting better and staying unconfirmed.

    Only the worst cases are ending up in the hospitals now.

    It would not surprise me if the actual number infected is double or quadruple the offical figure and the deaths maybe only slightly higher.
    Adjusted I think the real mortality sits at 1% or even as low as 0.5 %.

    Outside of China there has only been one death. All those who have had it in developed countrys seem to report only mild symptoms.
     
    Last edited: Feb 5, 2020
  11. Timewalker

    Timewalker Cat-lovin', Star Trekkin' Time Lady Premium Member

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    It's mind-croggling when I see pictures and TV footage of all those people wearing masks, but touching every public surface in sight (ie. door handles, poles on buses and trains, elevator buttons)... and how many of them do regular hand-washing? If I had to go out in public under those circumstances, I'd be wearing gloves.

    Even here, considering that doctors and pharmacies really nag people about flu shots (it's free for everyone now, when it used to only be free for children, seniors, and adults at risk) and there are signs all over the place about handwashing and hand sanitizing stations are provided in most public areas of office buildings, banks, and in some stores, I still wash frequently. I don't touch public door handles or elevator buttons if I can help it, and the first thing I do when I get home from anywhere is wash. The first thing that gets done after using a debit machine is handwashing (even at home, when the pizza person comes).

    Some people think I'm paranoid. But I'm in the at-risk group, I'm allergic to hand sanitizer, and would prefer not to end up in the hospital. Therefore, soap and water are used frequently here.
     
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  12. Crazyewok

    Crazyewok Commodore Commodore

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    Something is off.

    The mortality rate in wuhan seems to be around 5% and surrounding areas 2%

    Outside china is sitting below 1%
     
  13. Hound of UIster

    Hound of UIster Vice Admiral Admiral

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    The non-chinese contingent who have been infected are generally healthier compared to the chinese counterparts. Part of that is due to the healthy immigrant effect (people who migrate in general are healthier), but also because China is lagging much of the world in per capita health care spending and you have people there suffering from other ailments and the complications from these ailments such as smoking according to the WHO has played a large part in the mortality figures.
     
  14. JirinPanthosa

    JirinPanthosa Admiral Admiral

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    I wonder if the air in Beijing also plays a factor.
     
  15. think

    think Something Better. Premium Member

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    this curve doesn't seem to optimistic ;(
    coronavirus curves.jpg
    ...we have twelve cases reported right now in USA
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2020
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  16. Avro Arrow

    Avro Arrow Vice Admiral Moderator

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    Yes.

    Canada has reported our fifth case, this one also in the Vancouver area.

    We're also airlifting a contingent of citizens out of Wuhan, and they are due to arrive tomorrow. They are apparently going to be quarantined at CFB Trenton for two weeks.

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/under...cfb-trenton-for-evacuees-from-wuhan-1.4800778

    Beijing is over 1000 km away from Wuhan. So far, only 274 cases have been identified in Beijing (although they are bracing for more as the Lunar New Year holiday ends for them on February 10).

    In other news, one of the recent coronavirus deaths is the 34 year old Chinese doctor who first tried to alert other medical professionals to the crisis.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51403795
     
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  17. EmoBorg

    EmoBorg Commodore Commodore

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    Shanghai is closer to Wuhan (838 km) and it is a bigger air transport hub. We need to be mindful of that.

    The doctor dying was sad. He was in his mid 30 and was seemly healthy before the virus outbreak.


     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2020
  18. EmoBorg

    EmoBorg Commodore Commodore

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    In Singapore, a tour guide got the virus from interacting with a group of tourists from China. The same group of tourists went to some shops and infected two shop workers. One of the shop workers went home and infected the maid.

    This virus spreads fast even though it is not as deadly as SARS.

    The tourists came from Guangxi province which is in Southern China. This could mean that the virus has spread across several provinces already.

    https://www.tnp.sg/news/singapore/health-store-where-women-picked-virus-popular-chinese-tourists
     
    Last edited: Feb 7, 2020
  19. cultcross

    cultcross Social distance measurer Moderator

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    Surgical masks are designed to stop your fluids spreading to others during medical procedures, they won't prevent you from becoming infected. Waste of time wearing one.
     
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  20. EmoBorg

    EmoBorg Commodore Commodore

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    New cases of the virus are being reported in Singapore and Japan.

    724 have died worldwide while 2 085 have recovered so far.