The conspiracy depicted in an episode of "Castle" from last week, "Pandora," and concluded on Monday in "Linchpin" garners a number of kudos for originality.
The conspiracy involved the use of the theories of a social scientist named Nelson Blakely, a kind of Bruce Bueno de Mesquita character, who can predict future events and even influence them with mathematics. Blakely has developed an idea called "linchpin" which supposes that a minor event can lead to much larger ones, changing the course of world history. It is an actual concept derived from game theory, used to help negotiate diplomatic agreements and form business partnerships.
The two main characters, Richard Castle, a writer of murder mysteries, and Kate Beckett, a tough New York detective, are recruited by an old flame of Castle's, Sophia Turner, a CIA spy master. The case involves someone who is presumed to be a rogue CIA operative who is connected with a plot to bring down the American economy using Blakely's theories.
The story has some twists, turns, and red herrings. The upshot is that the linchpin is the 10-year-old daughter of an important Chinese official. The plot is to kill the little girl in an apparent botched attempt to kill the official, blaming the killing on the United States. The Chinese official then would influence the Beijing government to stop buying American debt in retaliation. The economy of the United States collapses. The austerity measures required to repair the damage would severely limit America's ability to keep the peace. Russia, China, the Middle Eastern terrorists, and a lot of other powers would run wild, starting a global war.
The party behind the plot is suggested to be East European interests, which can be taken to mean Russia's Vladmir Putin. This is buttressed by the fact that there is a mole inside the CIA who started out as a KGB plant, now working for the conspiracy.
Of course Castle and Beckett save the day, save the world, and save the life of the little girl.
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