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$500 million....are you playing the lottery?

Well, I bought two tickets today. I typically don't buy lotto tickets based on the reasons I've already stated, but the jackpot is so high and this Lotto fever has reached so much high levels, that I just couldn't resist. I'm probably not going to win, but I definitely wasn't going to win if I didn't have a ticket.
 
Who the hell cares about "expected" return? People don't expect to win, they think they MIGHT win. And that's enough. They don't "expect" anything.
Anybody who wonders whether this game is fair or rigged does care. You basically argue for not knowing the parameters of the game, for ignorance. This is rarely if ever a sound argument.
 
Holy crap... it's $640 million right now. I'm sorry, but I bought 20 tickets. That's well worth it considering I could be living on a private island this time next week. I don't expect to win it, but there's always the hope. You don't have to be a "millionaire several times over" to win. People win by paying $1, picking a few numbers, and winning based on luck. A guy in New York bought 1 ticket last year and won $319 million.

$1 for $640 MILLION is the best gamble ever, in my opinion. Nobody trash talking the lottery better talk to me when I own TrekBBS. ;)
 
Basically lotto is the equivalent of taxing every player and giving the largest chunk of the sum to one guy plus smaller sums to a few other guys plus a large chunk to the playmaster.
Sounds like the equivalent of hyper-regressive taxation to me which is together with the negative expected return ample reason to not participate in this game.
 
^ IMO, when one views a straightforward entertainment medium like the lottery through the lens of political philosophy, it's a sign that politics is a bit too central in their worldview... it (by which I mean both the lottery and politics) is just not that important.
 
Basically lotto is the equivalent of taxing every player and giving the largest chunk of the sum to one guy plus smaller sums to a few other guys plus a large chunk to the playmaster.
Sounds like the equivalent of hyper-regressive taxation to me which is together with the negative expected return ample reason to not participate in this game.

I just don't get it. It's a game. You're not going to win the money, but I might. :techman:
 
^ IMO, when one views a straightforward entertainment medium like the lottery through the lens of political philosophy, it's a sign that politics is a bit too central in their worldview... it (by which I mean both the lottery and politics) is just not that important.
The unexamined life is not worth living. For zombies it might be but for humans it ain't.


Basically lotto is the equivalent of taxing every player and giving the largest chunk of the sum to one guy plus smaller sums to a few other guys plus a large chunk to the playmaster.
Sounds like the equivalent of hyper-regressive taxation to me which is together with the negative expected return ample reason to not participate in this game.

I just don't get it. It's a game. You're not going to win the money, but I might. :techman:
If you got it you would think twice about playing the game.
Let me rephrase it, what you are basically doing with this lotto thing is the equivalent of meeting with a bunch of friends, putting money in the middle, letting the guy with the dice take a large chunk of it and giving the rest of the money to a guy who is chosen by the dice.
You are paying for one of you to become king and somebody else to organize the coronation.
 
If you got it you would think twice about playing the game.
Let me rephrase it, what you are basically doing with this lotto thing is the equivalent of meeting with a bunch of friends, putting money in the middle, letting the guy with the dice take a large chunk of it and giving the rest of the money to a guy who is chosen by the dice.
You are paying for one of you to become king and somebody else to organize the coronation.

The entertainment is in the process, not the outcome. The lottery adds intangible value to the transaction simply by being a high-profile media event that occupies national mindshare.

Another example would be playing your dice game in a casino, as opposed to just among friends. Playing in a casino can be fun because of the added intangible value created by the setting.

To use your analogy, you think the spectacle of a coronation just plans itself for free?
 
You are paying for one of you to become king and somebody else to organize the coronation.


But I could be the king. Everybody who has ever played the lottery has wanted to win the jackpot... and people do. In order to make $640 million dollars I would have to work 16,000 years at my current job. I would much rather pay a dollar and see if I can win more than half a billion. There's no secret government agenda or anything. Somebody pays a dollar and they get the winning numbers and they get rich.

I get what you're saying, but I just don't understand your attitude. You'd probably feel completely different if you won a jackpot.
 
If you got it you would think twice about playing the game.
Let me rephrase it, what you are basically doing with this lotto thing is the equivalent of meeting with a bunch of friends, putting money in the middle, letting the guy with the dice take a large chunk of it and giving the rest of the money to a guy who is chosen by the dice.
You are paying for one of you to become king and somebody else to organize the coronation.

The entertainment is in the process, not the outcome. The lottery adds intangible value to the transaction simply by being a high-profile media event that occupies national mindshare.

Another example would be playing your dice game in a casino, as opposed to just among friends. Playing in a casino can be fun because of the added intangible value created by the setting.

To use your analogy, you think the spectacle of a coronation just plans itself for free?
I loved playing stochastic games like roulette and so on as a kid. But even back then I knew that in the real world where such games are not played with kid-style fair rules this is a path towards poverty and not richness.

The empty dream of becoming rich has intangible value? Perhaps to some, in the 'opium of the people' sense.
If anything the existence of the lotto game shows that people aren't rational which has some interesting implications for economics, in particular making it more complicated, that will not be delightful to rightwingers.
 
I got 4 dollars worth. If I won.... my parents' retirement would be secure, as would mine. My nieces wouldn't have to worry about college. I'd retrofit the house for my mom's needs... And then I'd follow a dream or two of my own. Maybe open a cake shop... have my own kids... And I'd have all the money I needed to support them on my own.
 
If you got it you would think twice about playing the game.
Let me rephrase it, what you are basically doing with this lotto thing is the equivalent of meeting with a bunch of friends, putting money in the middle, letting the guy with the dice take a large chunk of it and giving the rest of the money to a guy who is chosen by the dice.
You are paying for one of you to become king and somebody else to organize the coronation.

The entertainment is in the process, not the outcome. The lottery adds intangible value to the transaction simply by being a high-profile media event that occupies national mindshare.

Another example would be playing your dice game in a casino, as opposed to just among friends. Playing in a casino can be fun because of the added intangible value created by the setting.

To use your analogy, you think the spectacle of a coronation just plans itself for free?
I loved playing stochastic games like roulette and so on as a kid. But even back then I knew that in the real world where such games are not played with kid-style fair rules this is a path towards poverty and not richness.

The empty dream of becoming rich has intangible value? Perhaps to some, in the 'opium of the people' sense.
If anything the existence of the lotto game shows that people aren't rational which has some interesting implications for economics, in particular making it more complicated, that will not be delightful to rightwingers.

Of course people aren't rational; their inherent irrationality is precisely what breaks Ricardian Equivalence and supports fiscal illusion, for example. As someone who would prefer lower taxes, I find this effect of population-level irrationality personally tiresome, but then again, population-level irrationality actively benefits me in other ways, so it probably balances out somewhat.

I've always found the "opium of the people" metaphor interesting. It's usually used negatively but in fact, most people actively need some metaphorical opium in their lives. It's frequently a good thing, increasing their level of happiness temporarily. All societies need pressure release valves.

There is no political system capable of satisfying universal human happiness, and I would suggest that all of them (whether of the left or the right) would inevitably lead to a large majority of the population having a limited range of action in practice. The nature/context of that oppression would vary, but so what, really? Moreover, a majority of people also lack the intellectual capacity to escape into a more internally-derived freedom, regardless of the society they're embedded in, whether that internal freedom be Stoic or Epicurean.

If the large majority will always be oppressed, they may as well enjoy the bread & circuses that come their way. And in fact, on a very practial level, the truth is that for most people, their entertainments are more than enough to keep them happy enough to remain within their societal system, as evidenced by a low rate of revolution. Representative Democracy is just as much of an opium in that sense as is a lottery; far more so in fact, but I suspect from reading between the lines of your posts that you would not argue against that particular narcotic.

Point is, lotteries are enjoyed by many: the intangible benefits are very, very real to them. You can read the proof of that in the thread. People are satisfied by the process of participating and the shared enjoyment of the dream, and then afterwards continue functioning productively in society.

So where's the harm? :)
 
About Ricardian equivalence, I totally agree but I think the main reason against it are imperfect capital markets, i.e. the existence of financial intermediaries like banks whose job it is to monitor the creditworthiness of creditors and who thus drive a wedge between what you could call the technological interest rate and what consumers get.
I also totally agree about happiness. After WWII most revolutions and protest movements were conducted by the middle class, be it 68 or even in Egypt. I think it was different in the Eastern Bloc with more working class folks on the streets, probably because of the dire economic situation.

I guess my problem with lottery arises when people are not aware that they consume a drug. If you are totally aware of how the game works, how your chances are and so on I don't have any problems with it just like I don't have any problems with folks consuming heroine as long as they know precisely what the drug does to them.
But in both cases I would nonetheless ask which social circumstances drive people into doing what they do. You don't find any heroine corpses among middle-class folks, do you? I think that there is some truth to what Orwell wrote in his most popular novel: The Lottery, with its weekly pay-out of enormous prizes, was the one public event to which the proles paid serious attention. It was probable that there were some millions of proles for whom the Lottery was the principal if not the only reason for remaining alive. It was their delight, their folly, their anodyne, their intellectual stimulant.
Without wanting lottery to be forbidden, obviously a totally crazy thought, I nonetheless think that a slightly better world where fewer people play lotto is possible. After all we wanna progress, don't we, and Roman circuses are thankfully something we mostly left behind.
 
I still don't see what the big deal is. People who play the lottery know their chances are slim. Everybody knows that. And they don't care. Gambling has always been a human interest. Horatio, do you complain when people go to Vegas? No? Then why complain about this? The principle is the same: it's the thrill of knowing that you MIGHT win. And one lottery ticket is hardly going to bankrupt somebody. So if they play once and lose, they're not out that much money. So why not let people have their fun?
 
I still don't see what the big deal is. People who play the lottery know their chances are slim. Everybody knows that. And they don't care. Gambling has always been a human interest. Horatio, do you complain when people go to Vegas? No? Then why complain about this? The principle is the same: it's the thrill of knowing that you MIGHT win. And one lottery ticket is hardly going to bankrupt somebody. So if they play once and lose, they're not out that much money. So why not let people have their fun?

Yep. I'm playing, and I know my odds are astronomical, but it's $1 on which I can take the risk without any adverse financial effects.
 
I probably would have bought a ticket or two if I was allowed to do so. But I can't buy tickets from my own store, for obvious reasons. And I can't be arsed to go to another store just to buy a ticket. :lol:
 
I have a question regarding the Lottery. How are jackpot totals determined? On Tuesday it was like 356 million and I was reading on the ticket you have a year to claim the jackpot if you won it. Well, apparently no one won it and it went up to 640 mil. Do they just pick arbitrary numbers for the Jackpot to grow or is there some kind of math involved. Like I said, this is the first time in 10 years I've really been associated with the Lottery and maybe I just don't understand how the whole thing works.
 
It initially went from 356M to something like 450M, and that difference was how much it had gone up from the point of 356M to the non-win Tuesday night.

I believe if someone had won it Tuesday night, they would have won 450M.

It's just going up so fast right now, they feel the need to update the number more often. It encourages us maniacs to go for it even more.
 
Simple feedback effect, with a larger jackpot more people buy tickets which makes it grow faster but also more likely to be actually won by somebody.
 
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