$35.5 Million more from overseas

[Thrawn]

Now call me a liar again. You people are the ones who have no clue what you're talking about.

I stand corrected; $160 million it is. I was getting my number from boxofficemojo, but they've since taken that number down, so clearly they realized it was a mistake also.

I'm freely willing to admit when I'm wrong.

Now - the first part of my dare. Find me any movie with these opening numbers that didn't make at least $250 million.

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/weekend-prediction-star-trek-65m/

And tell me that the movie is a flop.

 

[Kaziarl]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090511/media_nm/us_boxoffice_overseas

The international total stands at $123.7 million

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/world/news/e3i4b5caa365ad73b3a83966382d15feaf4

The international cume stands at $121.6 million

Saying it's going to fail when multiple sources state it's half way to their production costs after 5 days of a two week run is like counting your chickens before they hatch.

 

[IndyJones]

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/film/news/e3iea8e9b63ae2a4f8a163598be568cc683

There's half of the 100 million dollar budget right there.

You don't think they spent another 50 mil on other advertisements?

Give me a break.

Those numbers aren't calculated that way as a straight add on to the budget.

That article you cited mentions Nokia. Clearly Nokia gave something up in order to have the brand name mentioned in the movie...

Add you haven't addressed how Paramount's second best live action opening ever, which over performed on Saturday, Sunday, the weekend total, and on Monday, with great reviews and positive word of mouth, can be called a flop on Tuesday.

 

[Devon]

According to Odo's_Bucket's logic (or lack thereof,) the following movies were also flops.

Titanic
The Dark Knight
Batman Begins
Spider Man
Spider Man 2
Spider Man 3
The Harry Potter Films
The Lord of the Rings Films
etc

Yes... keep going Odo's_Bucket.

 

[Thrawn]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090511/media_nm/us_boxoffice_overseas

The international total stands at $123.7 million

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/world/news/e3i4b5caa365ad73b3a83966382d15feaf4

The international cume stands at $121.6 million

Saying it's going to fail when multiple sources state it's half way to their production costs after 5 days of a two week run is like counting your chickens before they hatch.

He's definitely wrong, but you're quoting Wolverine's numbers here, not Trek's. Trek is at $35.5 million, as the thread title states.

 

[Thrawn]

Here's another one -

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118003476.html?categoryid=13&cs=1&query=Star+Trek+FX

FX has agreed to pay $24 million to air Star Trek on TV, and the article reporting on this implies strongly that $200 million domestically is a reachable goal for the movie. And that's just domestically.

 

[Kaziarl]

Thats the total amount, both foreign and domestic. Domestic is closing in on 90 mill itself.

 

[Kaziarl]

Thats the total amount, both foreign and domestic. Domestic is closing in on 90 mill itself.

Sorry, you were right. Read the wrong paragraph.

Combined with the proceeds of its No. 1 domestic debut, "Trek's" early global boxoffice total stands at $112.4 million.

Still not something to shake your finger at.

 

[Odo's_Bucket]

Now call me a liar again. You people are the ones who have no clue what you're talking about.

I, at least, am not trying to call you a liar. I'm simply stating that if the total budget is 260 million as you say, then the movie is already half way there after opening weekend. Saying it's a flop is a ridiculous statement at this point, because there is no way to really tell except wait and see.

Now what if it turns out you are wrong. If it does flop, I'll admit that it's flopped. I'll still enjoy the movie, because I happen to feel its a good one, but I'll still admit it didn't perform as well as we'd hoped. Will you have the same courtesy if it does succeed?

86 is not half of 260. So the rest of your post has no merit.

 

[Odo's_Bucket]

The math is in error because your numbers and assumptions (and you make several doozies) are wrong.

Now, if you're just posting to provoke people you're doing a fine job - otherwise, you've lost this argument.

My numbers are in no way assumptions. Those numbers are all over the internet. 160 million in production costs and an estimated 100 million in advertising. Use your search engine.

so 260 million right? Last I remember seeing an estimate, it's already half way there. I do not see any difficulty for this movie to make back it's production cost, and then some.

86 is not half of 260.

 

[Thrawn]

Now call me a liar again. You people are the ones who have no clue what you're talking about.

I, at least, am not trying to call you a liar. I'm simply stating that if the total budget is 260 million as you say, then the movie is already half way there after opening weekend. Saying it's a flop is a ridiculous statement at this point, because there is no way to really tell except wait and see.

Now what if it turns out you are wrong. If it does flop, I'll admit that it's flopped. I'll still enjoy the movie, because I happen to feel its a good one, but I'll still admit it didn't perform as well as we'd hoped. Will you have the same courtesy if it does succeed?

86 is not half of 260. So the rest of your post has no merit.

Now who can't count?

Between domestic and international, it's made around $115 million. Which IS pretty close to $130 million, the halfway point.

And you still haven't found me a movie with this kind of opening weekend that flopped. So how about it, Mr. "DO YOUR RESEARCH AND FIND THE INFORMATION ON THE INTERNET BECAUSE I CAN'T BE BOTHERED", how about you do some?

 

[Phily B]

People almost want this film to fail. Some people are more pathetic than those who still hung onto old BSG.

 

[Odo's_Bucket]

People almost want this film to fail. Some people are more pathetic than those who still hung onto old BSG.

I never said I wanted the film to fail. In fact, I've posted more than once in the last couple of days that even though I did not enjoy the film, I hope it succeeds. Not just for the sake of those involved, but also so that Star Trek as an idea can survive. Then hopefully it will become something that I can enjoy again. Just because the movie didn't entertain me doesn't mean I want it and the franchise to fail. I just don't think this movie will succeed. I honestly think it will be lucky to finally break even. We all know the finacial history of Trek movies. It's true that this one had a big opening weekend, but I'm afraid it's going to follow the same path as the Trek movies that came before and theaters will soon be emptying up.

 

[Haggis and tatties]

Well if they want the film to fail now they are going to have to go back in time and change the time line.

Boom boom.

 

[Thrawn]

People almost want this film to fail. Some people are more pathetic than those who still hung onto old BSG.

I never said I wanted the film to fail. In fact, I've posted more than once in the last couple of days that even though I did not enjoy the film, I hope it succeeds. Not just for the sake of those involved, but also so that Star Trek as an idea can survive. Then hopefully it will become something that I can enjoy again. Just because the movie didn't entertain me doesn't mean I want it and the franchise to fail. I just don't think this movie will succeed. I honestly think it will be lucky to finally break even. We all know the finacial history of Trek movies. It's true that this one had a big opening weekend, but I'm afraid it's going to follow the same path as the Trek movies that came before and theaters will soon be emptying up.

Generations, First Contact, Insurrection, and Nemesis ALL made just about exactly 1/3 of their total domestic gross opening weekend. (Nemesis is the only one that made more than 1/3 opening weekend, and that's probably because it sucked ass and word of mouth was bad. And even it was less than 40% opening weekend.)

But that's not exactly the best comparison; let's look at the other reboots.

Batman Begins, Superman Returns, and Casino Royale all made just about 1/4 of their total domestic gross opening weekend.

While we're at it, Iron Man, the studio's previous most successful opening weekend ever, similarly driven by good reviews, opening at almost exactly the same time last year, and experiencing BIGGER SUNDAY AND MONDAY FALLOFFS than Star Trek so far, also made less than 1/3 of its total gross opening weekend.

Meaning, any reasonable person would be predicting between $225-$300 million domestically at this point. Not even including international numbers.

Once again: you totally haven't done your research on this, and have no evidence this movie is a flop.

 

[MvRojo]

This is not a flop:

$200 million domestic (which is probably underestimating)
$100 million international
$100+ million on DVD/BD sales
$24 million for cable rights (based on $200 million domestic gross)

That's already an estimate of $424 million which is being pessimistic based on numbers at this point.

Explain how this is a flop even considering you're estimate of $250 million in production + marketing.

 

[Odo's_Bucket]

This is not a flop:

$200 million domestic (which is probably underestimating)
$100 million international
$100+ million on DVD/BD sales
$24 million for cable rights (based on $200 million domestic gross)

That's already an estimate of $424 million which is being pessimistic based on numbers at this point.

Explain how this is a flop even considering you're estimate of $250 million in production + marketing.

Now who's making assumptions?

 

[Thrawn]

This is not a flop:

$200 million domestic (which is probably underestimating)
$100 million international
$100+ million on DVD/BD sales
$24 million for cable rights (based on $200 million domestic gross)

That's already an estimate of $424 million which is being pessimistic based on numbers at this point.

Explain how this is a flop even considering you're estimate of $250 million in production + marketing.

Now who's making assumptions?

All of those are completely logical and warranted given the information we have.

 

[Similitude]

This is not a flop:

$200 million domestic (which is probably underestimating)
$100 million international
$100+ million on DVD/BD sales
$24 million for cable rights (based on $200 million domestic gross)

That's already an estimate of $424 million which is being pessimistic based on numbers at this point.

Explain how this is a flop even considering you're estimate of $250 million in production + marketing.

Now who's making assumptions?

Intelligent people with facts, projections and a solid understanding of Hollywood.

 

[MvRojo]

This is not a flop:

$200 million domestic (which is probably underestimating)
$100 million international
$100+ million on DVD/BD sales
$24 million for cable rights (based on $200 million domestic gross)

That's already an estimate of $424 million which is being pessimistic based on numbers at this point.

Explain how this is a flop even considering you're estimate of $250 million in production + marketing.

Now who's making assumptions?

These aren't that big of assumptions.

The $24 million was reported by Variety yesterday.

$200 million domestic is almost assured based on the box office trends. It's already outpacing Batman Begins, and experiencing smaller day-to-day drops. That film went on to $205 million.

$100 million international is not to difficult to see since it made $35 million from being open in half the number of theatres that Wolverine was in and made half as much as Wolverine ($72 million), its opening weekend internationally.

$100 million in DVD sales is easy to achieve. That requires selling 4-5 million units, which is a small number considering movies have sold 3-4 million on the first day of release.

I didn't mention all the merchandising for the film since I don't know how that usually performs.