I agree, Sci et al., that it would be a very tragic thing for the colonists. My main quibble is that I couldn't understand why the Maquis would think they'd ultimately prevail against the combined forces of Starfleet *and* the Cardassians.
1. Some people are not going to fight because they think they're going to win. Some people are going to fight because they believe it's the right thing to do, period.
2. You might as well ask why the Viet Cong would possibly think they'd prevail against the United States Army, or why the Taliban is still fighting in Afghanistan. (Note: I am NOT saying that the Viet Cong or Taliban are justified in their struggles the way I've said that the Maquis were justified. My comparison here is extending purely to questions of power dynamics.)
History is full of examples of smaller, less-powerful guerilla movements managing to wear down and then defeat much larger, more powerful militaries. They rely on their mobility, familiarity with local terrain, and on a gradual wearing down of public support for the larger forces' objectives.
The Maquis probably thought that they'd be able to wear Starfleet down until the Federation public became so opposed to anti-Maquis operations that the Federation government would order Starfleet to withdraw. After all -- it's not like the Maquis were originally targeting the UFP in the first place; their early military operations were all against the Cardassians, and they didn't start hitting Federation targets until the UFP hit them in retaliation for their anti-Cardassian targets. More than a few members of the public probably have issues with the idea of attacking the Maquis because they attacked the Cardassians; let that anti-war sentiment grow, and the Maquis could in theory survive long enough to force the Federation out.
That, combined with the Cardassians' defeat at the hands of the Klingons during the 2372 Klingon Invasion would probably have handed de facto control over the DMZ to the Maquis, who would then have been free to establish their own interstellar state and build up their own military. All this presuming that the Cardassians hadn't joined the Dominion, of course.
Thanks for digging into this. I appreciate the exchange. I really didn't mean to be inflammatory or hostile. I was genuinely puzzled and sought answers; I *wanted* people to rebut my points. That's why I presented them.
No worries, and I'm glad you're able to understand another side now (even if you disagree with it).