Ideal family size

[Miss Chicken]

Once again thi thread was not meant to be about whether we individually want children but talk about that by all means. However I would also llike people to answer if they can see a need for other people to have children and if so, how many?

Are any of you concerned that, because of the current low birth rate, there will not be enough doctors, nurses and other professionals to look after the population when you are older? Not enough taxpayers to keep society functioning?

 

[nevermore]

Once again thi thread was not meant to be about whether we individually want children but talk about that by all means. However I would also llike people to answer if they can see a need for other people to have children and if so, how many?

Are any of you concerned that, because of the current low birth rate, there will not be enough doctors, nurses and other professionals to look after the population when you are older? Not enough taxpayers to keep society functioning?

I think we should be looking to reduce our overall global population in the long-term. That would mean people should have fewer kids, which might in fact have the effect you appear to be concerned about in the short term, though with people living healthier for longer, those who continue to work later might help to mitigate some of that. As would opening immigration to bring those providers in from non-western countries (since your original topic focused on reproduction in that region only). The latter would in turn help mitigate the overcrowding in the developing world.

in other words, the "Western World" is not a closed system that needs to rely solely on our own ability to reproduce sufficient service providers and taxpayers. There are literally billions of other people out there who can move in to fill those roles. Hopefully the super-long term result would be to raise the standard of living in all parts of the world and to eventually establish a stable, reasonable and sustainable global population level.

Anyway, I'll do my part and not have kids.

 

[Davros]

3.14

 

[Miss Chicken]

I agree that we are going to rely on immigration from the developing world to help cope with a shortage of labour in the West. I also believe this will only have last a couple of generations until a more 'normal' age distribution is again reached.

There is talk of increasing the retirement age from 65 to 70 or 75 in ther future to help with the expected labour shortage.

I also agree that the long-term aim to reduce population is a good thing. It is estimated that ab ideal population for Australia would be about 8,000,000, it is already at 21 million and increasing slightly due to immigration. However there are plenty of people who are strongly opposed to immigration.

Also eventually the developing world will have the same problems with an aging population once their fertility levels drop below replacement level.

 

[John Picard]

I agree that we are going to rely on immigration from the developing world to help cope with a shortage of labour in the West. I also believe this will only have last a couple of generations until a more 'normal' age distribution is again reached.

There is talk of increasing the retirement age from 65 to 70 or 75 in ther future to help with the expected labour shortage.

I also agree that the long-term aim to reduce population is a good thing. It is estimated that ab ideal population for Australia would be about 8,000,000, it is already at 21 million and increasing slightly due to immigration. However there are plenty of people who are strongly opposed to immigration.

Also eventually the developing world will have the same problems with an aging population once their fertility levels drop below replacement level.

As reality sets into place, it is becoming obvious that retirement is an unsustainable Utopian idea. People just stop working and live their remaining years saddled on the front stoop and watch the world go by rather than continuing as a productive member of society.

More and more people are choosing to continue working in their golden years, as many generations before did.

 

[Candlelight]

Two. Enough to replace you and your partner.

 

[trampledamage]

Two. Enough to replace you and your partner.

The problem with this approach is it doesn't account for all the people who don't have children.

I'm the only one in my family to have kids, and the only one likely to do so. I've currently got two, so that replaces me and mr trampledamage. Even if we regard my younger sister as being surplus because my parents were over quota, should I have another child to replace my older sister?

 

[Candlelight]

Two. Enough to replace you and your partner.

The problem with this approach is it doesn't account for all the people who don't have children.

I'm the only one in my family to have kids, and the only one likely to do so. I've currently got two, so that replaces me and mr trampledamage. Even if we regard my younger sister as being surplus because my parents were over quota, should I have another child to replace my older sister?

We're already at 7 billion people and climbing. If some people don't have kids it's better for the planet.

I've only got one at the moment, and only plan on having one more. If child number two doesn't eventuate then it doesn't eventuate.

 

[Daneel]

With regards to the subject of the OP, I tend to think that the world is already too overpopulated, and thus people having fewer or no children would be ideal. I don't think a significant decline is too likely, however, as a lot of people do want to have children -- often for the wrong reasons, IMO. Don't misunderstand me, I'm sure many people (including some on this board) have children because it's what they want, because they feel that it will be a blessing and that they have a lot of love to offer a child. However, I believe that many people have children simply because it's expected of them, either by society at large or by their family members.

For instance, I have an acquaintance who is married with two children. We once were on the subject of marriage and children, and he admitted to me that, although he loved his kids, if he had to do it over again, he probably wouldn't have had any. At the time, he felt that procreating was the next logical step, that it was what was expected of him and his wife, so they went ahead and did it. And now he realizes that he probably would've preferred staying childless, but what can he do about it at this point?

Myself, I'm pretty much indifferent to the notion of having kids. I figure, whatever happens, happens. Of course, if I did have children, I'd first need to find a woman and get serious with her (highly unlikely) and get a steady, well-paying job so that I could support my family (also highly unlikely, since I'm a bit directionless, at least right now). So it would seem that the odds are against me reproducing... and I'm fine with that. I don't think I need to have children for my life to feel complete. The irony is, I actually think I'd make a fairly good father, but I'll just settle for being an uncle/older cousin/occasional babysitter.

I've mentioned to my parents that I consider it unlikely that I'll ever have children... I think they're a little disappointed to hear that (which kind of goes back to the expectations of the family that I mentioned above); I'm pretty sure they want to be grandparents someday. I told them, hey, they've still got my sister, who does seem to want children at some point, but they're a little skeptical of that happening (they seem to think that my sister, being gay, might have difficulty finding a partner that also wants children... plus she's not exactly sure, if she were to have children, how she would go about doing it, i.e. adoption, artificial insemination, etc.). So yeah, my parents are a little worried about their genes ending with us... oh well, too bad for them.

 

[RJDiogenes]

Are any of you concerned that, because of the current low birth rate, there will not be enough doctors, nurses and other professionals to look after the population when you are older? Not enough taxpayers to keep society functioning?

It seems to me that the optimum population for the planet as a whole is about three billions. It was after that line was crossed in the early 60s that environmental degradation and mass extinctions began to accelerate. With modern technology and proper environmental practices, I think three billions could live on the planet without damaging it. Also, the more the Human population increases, the more vulnerable it becomes to mass extinction. So the birth rate should be whatever it takes to bring the current population of seven billions down to three as soon as is reasonably possible. The most optimistic projections I've seen, I think, have the world population leveling off at nine billions at around 2050 and then beginning to slowly decline. Hopefully, that will be good enough, but there are too many variables to know for sure.

 

[Miss Chicken]

You didn't address the question I asked, and you quoted, in your reply. How will we cope with a diminishing workforce age group at the same time as the elderly age group is increasing significantly.

I totally agree that the world would be a better place with a smaller population. The ideal maximum for Australia would be about 8 million rather than the 21 million that Australia currently has.

However, even though a lower fertility rate will benefit man in the long run and the world will be a much more desirable place to live once the ideal population is reached, we cannot overlook all the social problems a declining population it will cause in the short term (by short term I mean the next 50-80 years).

 

[RJDiogenes]

It depends on how quickly the population declines. A precipitous drop, as might be caused by a pandemic, would be disastrous. If it takes a hundred years to get from six to nine billions, society should be able to adapt to a hundred-year decline, especially with improving technology.

We need Robots.

 

[Michael Chris]

I don't think there is an average ideal size. The ideal size is what the parents want and can support.

 

[Miss Chicken]

I don't think there is an average ideal size. The ideal size is what the parents want and can support.

The ideal size should be what the world can cope with.

 

[Kestra]

I think we should be looking to reduce our overall global population in the long-term. That would mean people should have fewer kids, which might in fact have the effect you appear to be concerned about in the short term, though with people living healthier for longer, those who continue to work later might help to mitigate some of that. As would opening immigration to bring those providers in from non-western countries (since your original topic focused on reproduction in that region only). The latter would in turn help mitigate the overcrowding in the developing world.

in other words, the "Western World" is not a closed system that needs to rely solely on our own ability to reproduce sufficient service providers and taxpayers. There are literally billions of other people out there who can move in to fill those roles. Hopefully the super-long term result would be to raise the standard of living in all parts of the world and to eventually establish a stable, reasonable and sustainable global population level.

This states what I feel but with much more eloquence than I can manage. The rest of the world isn't going to slow down their rate of reproduction anytime soon (I'm looking at you, India) and I feel the situation needs to be looked at on a global level as well.

 

[Miss Chicken]

I am not sure why you are looking at India. India's fertility rate is 2.72 which means it ranks in 83rd place in the world, which is sort of in the middle, and its fertility rate is dropping.

Most African countries and Middle Eastern countries have a much higher fertility rate than India.

 

[Candlelight]

How will we cope with a diminishing workforce age group at the same time as the elderly age group is increasing significantly.

I guess we'll see how China's "One Child" policy bears itself out in 40 years times...

 

[Mr. Laser Beam]

Look at them, bloody Catholics, filling the bloody world up with bloody people they can't afford to bloody feed.

I think the Kennedy clan can well afford to feed all of their children.

Looks like somebody needs to brush up on their Meaning of Life quotes...

 

[JonathonWally]

I don't think I want children, but I still like kids. I'm all about being a cool uncle.

As for the ideal family size, eh, have whatever you can handle. This isn't communist China that dictates how many children and what gender you can have.

 

[Miss Chicken]

How will we cope with a diminishing workforce age group at the same time as the elderly age group is increasing significantly.

I guess we'll see how China's "One Child" policy bears itself out in 40 years times...

Rural families and minority ethnic groups have had some exemptions since the One Child Policy was introduced. I think rural families are often allowed to have a second child especially if the first child is a girl. Ethnic minorities have been allowed to have two children each (in urban areas) and three or four in rural areas.

Also some regions have allowed a couple to have a second child if both parents are themselves are only children. Some parents also decide to have a child and put up with the large fine and other economic penalties.

As a result of this only about 35% of families in China are in fact one child families. The fertility rate in China is 1.8 which is close to Australia's fertility rate.