Is Trek popular enough to be a Summer Blockbuster?

[22 Stars]

Its the marketing department's job to make Trek popular enough to be a summer blockbuster at least for the initial phase. After that, good word of mouth will determine whether it has legs.

Everything is unknown at some point, and has to be made popular by the usual means. Iron Man made $300 million dollars despite being a superhero "nobody's ever heard of" (outside of the halls of nerdom). The wholly original Hancock, WALL*E and Kung-Fu Panda made $200M+. Good marketing + worthwhile movie = big bucks.

Like Transformers, Iron Man and Lord of the Rings, people know the name Star Trek

You need to talk with normal folks more. All the normal folks I know had no idea why anyone would make a movie based on Iron Man. Remember, most people don't visit comic book stores.

In any case, how do you explain the success of Hancock, WALL*E and Kung-Fu Panda? Nobody's ever heard of them because they didn't exist.

Comic book stuff seems to be regarded as pretty cool by mainstream audience nowadays

Not that I've noticed. The normal folks I know regard comic book movies with slight contempt, but if there's something cool about the movie - like Robert Downey Jr.'s performance - their minds will change quickly and their prejudice will vanish. Their negative opinions about comic book movies are not strongly held - most people just don't care one way or the other. Star Trek has an incredible opportunity because the field is wide open.

Please don't tell me who I need to talk to, and generalize about what and who 'normal people' are. I live in New York City, full of a diverse and multicultural group of normal people. Some like sci-fi/fantasy/comic book stuff, some do not.

If you're calling the majority of people who saw Spiderman, Lord of the Rings, Iron Man etc. 'abnormal' than you have quite alot more living to do. Millions of people saw those films, many of whom are casual film goers. This speaks directly to my point about Trek finally being able to cross this threshold, Star Trek IV did this very well and I'm happy to read people's hunches on this new Trek.

 

[Cary L. Brown]

The reason that Paramount gave for moving Star Trek to next summer was that they wanted it to be a 'tent-pole' picture for the studio. They believe in the film and in JJ. That's all great, and not one person on this board knows any better, we don't know if the rushes look THAT good, but what I want to know is do 'we' the fans think that Star Trek in general is popular enough to give this Trek a chance to be a summer blockbuster?

In the interest of full disclosure, I and many of my friends used to work for Paramount, and know a good deal about these decisions. The lack of product that Paramount has to release next summer has a bit to do with this decision I'm sure, but I have no doubt they want to raise the bar for rebirth of the Trek franchise, and are ready to make this bet and give Trek prime summer release-date real estate.

My personal opinion is that Trek has the one thing you do need, a name with a recognition factor, and no huge negatives. Like Transformers, Iron Man and Lord of the Rings, people know the name Star Trek, have a vague understanding that it's sci-fi, adventure, and given enough preview clips will see a lot of great action and special effects.

The casual movie fan doesn't know the names of any Trek film, except 'Oh yeah the one with the whales, that came out the year I was born I think', and that could help the new Trek this May.

I think that the point of the topic is... well... irrelevant. No offense, but I really think it's based upon a false assumption.

You ask "Is Trek popular enough to be a Summer Blockbuster?" The answer is... that this movie could be a "summer blockbuster" or it might be a "total dud." And the thing that's going to cause either of those to be the case will not be that it's "Trek."

What will make it into a "blockbuster" or into just a "bust" will be IS IT A GREAT MOVIE?

For comparison, think about "The Sixth Sense." Nobody knew anything about this movie... it had no pedigree, no history... and the guy making it was essentially unknown. Okay, it had Bruce Willis, but he's never really been one of the all-time great actors, just a decent entertainer. The rest of the cast were total unknowns.

It became a HUGE blockbuster. What made it a blockbuster was the fact that people who saw it told all their friends, who told all THEIR friends, and so on and so on. What made it a blockbuster was that it was a good movie.

So, what'll make this film a "blockbuster," should that happen, will have nothing to do with it being Trek and more to do with it being a good movie (or not?).

 

[22 Stars]

^ You make some good points, but it is entirely possible that this Trek film could be good enough, and that the public's impression of Trek from the past could hold it back from being as big as it could be. I think that is a real danger, and I wanted to see what other people here think. It hasn't been that long since Trek's public failures on the big and small screen made it the fodder for many a 'Is Star Trek Dead?' article.

Many people don't think the point of this topic is irrelevant, so thanks for your vote. I get your point, I can tell other people get mine. You can also think of this topic as 'is the trek brand not damaged to the point of irreperability in the public's eye'.

 

[Therin of Andor]

Director of Cloverfield:

Matt Reeves.

 

[EyalM]

It's not a question of popularity, it is a question of how well the movie will be marketed.

 

[Procutus]

It hasn't been that long since Trek's public failures on the big and small screen made it the fodder for many a 'Is Star Trek Dead?' article.

Hey 22,

Although you make a good point with the above statement, by the time this movie hits the multi-plexes next year, seven years will have gone by since the debacle that was Nemesis and four since ENT left the airwaves. Again, I make the comparison to TMP hitting the screens in December of 1979, it was made into an EVENT and a lot of people went to see it, partly I think because it had been ten years since we'd had any new form of Trek.

But I also think that Temis hit it on the head, what will really make a difference is if this movie is any good. If it is, if it's truly unique enough to make it stand out from Trek's previous outings at the box-office, then word-of-mouth will carry it to making big bucks.

And on that note I also agree with EyalM, they need to market the hell out of this thing, so that public awareness is at an all time high. Outside of the folks who frequent this board, what percentage of John Q. Public doe you think even knows at this point that another Star Trek film is in the making? How many folks will stumble into the theaters in a few months, see the new trailer and go 'Wow, there's a new Star Trek film?!'

Just my .02 worth.


regards,


Proc

 

[pookha]

^ You make some good points, but it is entirely possible that this Trek film could be good enough, and that the public's impression of Trek from the past could hold it back from being as big as it could be. I think that is a real danger, and I wanted to see what other people here think. It hasn't been that long since Trek's public failures on the big and small screen made it the fodder for many a 'Is Star Trek Dead?' article.

Many people don't think the point of this topic is irrelevant, so thanks for your vote. I get your point, I can tell other people get mine. You can also think of this topic as 'is the trek brand not damaged to the point of irreperability in the public's eye'.

batman begins had to deal with the weight of how bad the last couple batman movies had been.

i think the movie going public for the most part know this movie is being done by a different group of people then did the last trek movies.

if it is a really good movie and has trailers that can get across the quality of the film it should do well.

at first i had no intention of seeing transformers but it was the trailers that helped me to decide to bother with reading some of the reviews and checking the film out.

 

[Chekt]

• Abrams has yet to prove he is a major directorial talent. Nolan IS a proven and talented director who has proven he can direct big production scenes and intimate moments. While I feel Abrams can handle intimate moments, I saw nothing in MI3 that shows he can handle--with visual style and creative scope--big production action sequences.

You obviously have not seen Cloverfield.

You obviously have not watched the end credits of Cloverfield.

Oh God, I'm retarded. Please excuse my ignorant comment.

 

[Procutus]

I should point out that I goofed in my above post, it was Cary who said the ultimate success of this film depended on how good it really is.

My bad.



And I still agree with that assessment, BTW.

 

[22 Stars]

Thanks Proc, good to see you too Thanks for your thoughts, I always enjoy hearing from you. Hopefully when they see the real trailer, it will be 'Hey that actually looks cool'! Like Pookah said, that trailer got him to see Transformers, and something like that would be great for Trek where people might have preconcieved notions about it and the past quality of Trek product.

 

[Starbreaker]

Director of Cloverfield:

Matt Reeves.

Producer. Sorry

 

[Procutus]

Thanks Proc, good to see you too Thanks for your thoughts, I always enjoy hearing from you. Hopefully when they see the real trailer, it will be 'Hey that actually looks cool'! Like Pookah said, that trailer got him to see Transformers, and something like that would be great for Trek where people might have preconcieved notions about it and the past quality of Trek product.

I'm hoping that the quality of the trailer will be such that my interest will shoot through the roof. I'm already psyched about this film and I hope, I pray that the expectation does not prove to be greater than the event.

 

[Navaros]

To the question of this thread title I say:

Potentially, yes. However, not in the form of a TOS prequel/rehash. Reinvigorating Trek with freshness is a great idea that could have been amazing - however, IMO that is impossible to do with any TOS prequel/rehash. Especially without the original actors.

So in the case of Trek XI in particular, no, no it can't IMO.

 

[Utopianvista]

Cloverfield underperformed with all its hype so people shouldn't mention that and success.

I argued that for this film to be any sort of success it NEEDED a summer opening because its not going to have legs. Its going to perform like a traditional franchise film and be frontloaded.

Truthfully I don't think it'll hit 100 million. Star Trek isn't Batman. People forget that before Batman and Robin that Batman releases always broke opening weekend records.

But if you want to compare it to Batman begins remember that B&R was so horrible (Nemesis) that is crippled Begins performance. Begins had a very modest opening and had incredible legs due to WOM and only finished a bit over 200 million. No Star Trek movie is going to have the same sort of mainstream appeal as Batman so you have to cut that in half hence why i believe it won't hit 100 million.

Clone Wars proved you can't slap the name of a popular franchise on any film and expect massive numbers. Most box office experts at boxofficemojo (people that follow this stuff) aren't really predicting great things for this movie either.

Here are the big May movies

The Hannah Montana Movie -5/1
X-Men Origins: Wolverine - 5/1
Star Trek - 5/8
Angels & Demons -5/15
Bruno - 5/15
Night at the Museum II: Escape from the Smithsonian- 5/22
Terminator Salvation - 5/22
Up - 5/29 (Pixar)

That is some pretty fierce competition. The X-men movies tend to be front loaded, and I expect this one to follow that pattern, and the Hannah Montana movie appeals to a different demographic. But after that Star Trek is going to get slaughtered. It needs to be as front loaded as possible. Angels and Demons will probably under perform but I expect Bruno to do great.

For it to have a chance at 100 million it has have an opening weekend of over 50 million and try to survive after that. That is going to be be VERY tough with the upcoming movies.

Also, to clarify, I am talking domestic totals. Trek doesn't have a very good history in WW grosses either in case you were wondering.

 

[roguephoenix]

If Marvel can get Iron Man to make $300+ million, Abrams can make Trek into a big money franchise. There were a LOT of doubts that Iron Man would be successful, since he wasn't a household superhero name like Spider-Man, The Hulk, Superman, or Batman.

well ironman doesn't have the same stigma as star trek seems to have. i don't know why there's a stigma, but there is. people would actively avoid anything if it had start trek on it. they automatically assume it's not for them or they won't like it. however, ironman is one of those names that's not too popular enough in pop culture that most people gave it a chance. plus, there are big name actors attached to it that have been critically acclaimed and once word got out that they did a great job and it was thoroughly enjoyable then the rest of the public started to jump in the boat.

the only hope of star trek being a big hit too is if word of mouth spread that it was great and not the usual star trek thing. i think it will do fine. with the hype surrounding it, it will do well enough opening. what's up in the air is whether it has sustaining power. the way to have that is for it to be critically acclaimed and word of mouth from viewers. let's hope it turns out worthy of the buzz.

 

[trevanian]

Cloverfield underperformed with all its hype so people shouldn't mention that and success.

Relative to what, the thing only cost thirty mil? That's like saying TWOK didn't perform because it only returned severalfold on the 11-13 mil investment.

Just cuz something doesn't do 450 mil doesn't mean it ain't successful.

 

[Rarewolf]

ironman is one of those names that's not too popular enough in pop culture that most people gave it a chance.

If it wasn't for the fact it was a backup strip in the UK Transformers comic, I'd never of heard of it

 

[TheMasterOfOrion]

1 Spider-man total $403,706,375

Indy crystal skull opening weekend $101,102,125
Ironman opening weekend $98,505,000

 

[Cdr MacDuff]

Great! Hollywood executive have been able to pull down Star Trek to the lowest common denominator to make it a blockbuster. Yippi!!

A great victory for us trek fan. We can now hang out with teenagers at the skateboard rink and discuss movies with the ID4 crowd.

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

A great victory for us trek fan. We can now hang out with teenagers at the skateboard rink and discuss movies with the ID4 crowd.

Sorry, they still won't let nerds hang out with them.