So it's looking like Quantumania is going to be the first real MCU flop, with no Covid mitigation factor for the numbers.
On the one hand it's amazing it's taken this long. On the other hand it's not good since it's the foundation stone for the next three or four years of movies.
I wonder if the Ant-Man films just aren't appealing enough in general to bring people in over lackluster trailers and bad reviews at this point. The last four MCU films (Wakanda Forever, Thor 4, Dr. Strange 2 and No Way Home) all made a ton of money, so its certainly not "MCU fatigue" or whatever MCU haters will instantly jump on when a movie doesn't do well.
At most, I think that some sections of the MCU aren't as fail proof as they were back in the day. Ant-Man always felt like a just ok part of the MCU, a lot of people like Ant-Man himself but its not like Ant-Man 1 or 2 lit the world on fire critically or commercially, they were decently financially successful and liked, especially for a C-list hero property, but it doesn't feel like it went from C to A level like, say, GOTG did. If, say, a Thor movie is mediocre it will still really bring the people in, but I don't think that Ant-Man is at that level.
I can't speak to the movie quality personally because I won't see it until its on Disney Plus (because of Evangeline Lily, and her [supposed] ardent defender Peyton Reed, I won't give Disney a penny for the film), but its obviously not at the quality level it needed to be to bring people in, and honestly I think the advertising has not made it look very good. It also doesn't really look like much of an Ant-Man movie, it seems more like some weird cosmic thing, which is very different from the other Ant-Man films and that probably didn't help bring in more casual people.
As it is I think that Ant-Man 3 will be considered a failure in the end, but I don't think it really says much about the state of the MCU in general.