I do indeed consider an extrapolation to explain something otherwise inexplicable to be more worthy of consideration than speculation that has no evidence and does not explain any otherwise inexplicable canonically-established facts.
No, I just recognize that there are inferences that must be true for canonical facts to make sense, and there are inferences that don't need to be true for canonical facts to make sense.
Okay, let's look at some facts.
Fact 1.
"The Wounded" - The admiral said to Picard that the Federation is not prepared for a new sustained conflict.
Fact 2.
"Chain Of Command" - The Cardassians, whether you think they were equipped for a war or not, were fully ready to do so. This episode took place, according to stardate,
before "EMISSARY", which was when they pulled out of Bajor. By the way, "EMISSARY" also aired about 2 weeks after the TNG two-parter, so the stardates AND the airdates match in this case.
Fact 3. The Maquis started the entire thing by blowing up the
Bok'Nor in "THE MAQUIS, PART I". Then also kidnapped Dukat. Whether they were justified or not isn't the point, they fired first.
Fact 4. Commander Cal Hudson, a high ranking Starfleet officer, was involved in all those events. As a Starfleet officer
and Federation citizen, he was gutting a treaty they signed in good faith. Which means it can easily be construed as the Federation supporting the Maquis, unless they actually go after them.
Fact 5. He didn't bother with bringing the evidence to the Federation and kept fighting.
Fact 6. The Maquis were made up of a lot of former Starfleet officers... many of whom used their positions to steal from Starfleet to further the Maquis. From the Cardassian perspective, they were Federation citizens and it was the Federation's responsibility to go after them. And this would be accurate, since so many of them commited treason instead of going the cleaner route of resigning and leaving to fight with the Maquis.
Of course Starfleet is going after them.
And this is
before the events of "DEFIANT", the weakening of the Obsidian Order and Cardassian government, the Klingon invasion of their empire, and the theft of those industrial replicators.
In DS9 season 3, we hardly heard about the Maquis. But since the Cardassians got stomped by the Klingons in season 4, they clearly took the opportunity and got bolder and moved from defending their colonies to outright aggression.
If Starfleet DID NOT go after them, the Cardassians would have started another conflict, which if you remember fact number one,
the Federation was not prepared for one. They didn't want one, so the treaty was made so there would be some semblance of peace in the region.
So... which of these facts are you going to ignore?