I think it's a matter of who ends up leading humanity.
But as I said, if this is already an alternate past, then isn't it already too late to fix the timeline? No matter who ends up leading humanity?
I mean, supposedly the point of divergence (on April 15th) has yet to arrive. But if this is already an alternate timeline, isn't that date basically irrelevant? If this is already another past, then it should be too late to do anything about it.
Unless the implication is that if the point of divergence IS prevented, then the past will instantly reshape itself, with Guinan suddenly remembering meeting Picard in the 1800's and all that. Is this what we're supposed to believe?