Dune 2018 (19,20,21...)

[Reverend]

No, I laugh because I went to a theater recently. Maybe 6 people in there, all precautions in place, masks, sanitization, etc. Nice way to see Lord of the Rings though.

So, I guess I'm the moron

That depends: did you buy from the concession stand at massively inflated prices, or smuggle in your own like a normal person?

Seriously though, no triple-A budget movie is going to recoup it's budget with socially distanced screenings unless someone invests HEAVILY in building thousands of drive-ins in the next few months. Those limited screening of classic films is just to keep the exhibitors alive, not Hollywood.

 

[fireproof78]

That depends: did you buy from the concession stand at massively inflated prices, or smuggle in your own like a normal person?

Discount theater wasn't too bad...but yeah.

Seriously though, no triple-A budget movie is going to recoup it's budget with socially distanced screenings unless someone invests HEAVILY in building thousands of drive-ins in the next few months. Those limited screening of classic films is just to keep the exhibitors alive, not Hollywood.

True.

 

[JD]

That depends: did you buy from the concession stand at massively inflated prices, or smuggle in your own like a normal person?

Seriously though, no triple-A budget movie is going to recoup it's budget with socially distanced screenings unless someone invests HEAVILY in building thousands of drive-ins in the next few months. Those limited screening of classic films is just to keep the exhibitors alive, not Hollywood.

Which is why I don't understand why they don't just release them all through paid rental streaming. At least that way they would get a lot of their money back. Obviously it won't be as much as it would be if every person who watched it bought an individual ticket, but it would probably be more than they would make in theaters any time in the next year.
I know not that long ago I was pretty confident I'd go back to the theaters as long as there were enough precautions in place, but I'm not as sure now.
Trolls World Tour was able to make $95 million in 19 days, I'm pretty sure if they released Tenet or Black Widow or WW1984 that way, they could easily make several times as much.

 

[The Wormhole]

Which is why I don't understand why they don't just release them all through paid rental streaming. At least that way they would get a lot of their money back. Obviously it won't be as much as it would be if every person who watched it bought an individual ticket, but it would probably be more than they would make in theaters any time in the next year.
I know not that long ago I was pretty confident I'd go back to the theaters as long as there were enough precautions in place, but I'm not as sure now.
Trolls World Tour was able to make $95 million in 19 days, I'm pretty sure if they released Tenet or Black Widow or WW1984 that way, they could easily make several times as much.

The problem I see with paid streaming rentals is there's no way it's going to last to be viable. It's only going to be the most die-hard of the die-hards who are going to spend twenty dollars to stream a movie at home on release day when they know they can just wait a few months and it'll either be the usual five dollars from VOD services or it'll be free with subscription to services like Netflix or Amazon Prime or whatever.

Trolls World Kingdom got lucky in that it was released in the midst of the lockdowns when everyone was stuck at home all day and the weather was still on the cold side, those with kids were desperate for something new to entertain the kids and didn't mind spending twenty dollars on a new movie right the fuck now. At this point where a good many people are back to work, can shop again, and the weather is nice out, people aren't as desperate for new entertainment, and as such if Tenet, Black Widow or WW1984 did get released through streaming rentals now, they likely would not get anywhere near 95 million in three weeks.

And that's before you take a look at demographics. Trolls World Kingdom was a children's movie. It's arguably a discount paying twenty dollars on a movie streaming at home than it would be going to the theatre, where likely the trip is a family affair. Let's just say one parent takes two kids to see the movie at theatre, the ticket alone could be upwards thirty dollars, and that's before you factor in the concession stand and possible trip to a restaurant before or after the movie. Twenty dollars for a movie with snacks and a meal from home is a deal. Movies like Tenet, Black Widow and WW1984 cater to a more grown up audience, in which case twenty dollars to stream a movie isn't so much of a deal when they could likely go to the theatre and spend that combined on ticket and concession stand treats if they were going on their own.

 

[Reverend]

Which is why I don't understand why they don't just release them all through paid rental streaming. At least that way they would get a lot of their money back.

Except, they wouldn't. You're never going to get enough from home video rentals to recoup the kind of $150 million+ budgets these films cost. The vast majority of the audience will just wait until the movie arrives on streaming, which gains them next to nothing.

The attraction of a theatrical release isn't about getting to see the movie earlier than the home release, it's getting to see it on the big screen. This is why the modest, mid-budget movies had all but disappeared from cinemas over the last few decades (only now making a come back on streaming) in favour of either massive expensive blockbusters or cheap as chips rom-coms and horror movies (date night fodder.) It only makes sense to put a film in cinemas if it's 1) going to make lots of money, and/or 2) was very very cheap to make. If it's the former then it also NEEDs that theatrical release to make those quarterly reports.

 

[JD]

OK, you two do bring up some good points I didn't consider.

 

[wayoung]

I was quite shocked Greyhound came out on VOD. A Tom Hanks WW2 film?!?!

Then again, Hanks isn't the big $$$ ticket he used to be.

The movie is great, FYI.

 

[Marc]

I was quite shocked Greyhound came out on VOD. A Tom Hanks WW2 film?!?!

Then again, Hanks isn't the big $$$ ticket he used to be.

The movie is great, FYI.

but it only cost $70mil so it was much easier to recover the money.

I was reading an article the other day about the issue with release Tenet. Seems there's not only the cost of the film but something like $150mil in marketing to there's just no way they'll be able to recover that cost through selling the rights to Netflix or whoever.

If Netflix for example was going to pay out that sort of money they'd probably look to produce it under their own banner rather than as a complete buy-in.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/entertainment/tenet-delay-warner-bros-1.5656836

 

[FPAlpha]

Given the uncertainty, especially in the US where Californa locked down movie theaters again due to rise of Covid cases, how long do you think studios will be sitting on finished films and just waiting on the american market to become safe again?

Not the place to discuss this here so bear with me but it seems to me that conservative led countries (the US, Brazil, the UK etc) have major problems and are seeing their case numbers rise again but other countries like Germany have it well under control so maybe by fall they'll lift restrictions completely so studios may decide to release their movies where the market has reopened and social distancing not an issue anymore.

Do you think that may happen? Even big studios can't go on forever not making any revenue worth speaking of, especially if the spent hundreds of millions on summer blockbusters that are now sitting for months in the archives waiting for their release?

I know movie piracy is an issue but i believe not as big as to be able to sink a movie due to loss of profit but it may be some last straw maneuvre to at least make some profit to keep the studios afloat until normal operations can resume.

 

[Marc]

Not the place to discuss this here so bear with me but it seems to me that conservative led countries (the US, Brazil, the UK etc) have major problems and are seeing their case numbers rise again but other countries like Germany have it well under control so maybe by fall they'll lift restrictions completely so studios may decide to release their movies where the market has reopened and social distancing not an issue anymore.

The article I linked above also mentioned covers this as well.

the answer is best in the words of River Song, "spoilers sweetie"

They're concerned that if the film's plot/ending wind up on the web (wikipedia is the example they use) after people have had it released early outside the U.S, Americans might be dis-inclined to see it at the cinema.

 

[FPAlpha]

The article I linked above also mentioned covers this as well.

the answer is best in the words of River Song, "spoilers sweetie"

They're concerned that if the film's plot/ending wind up on the web (wikipedia is the example they use) after people have had it released early outside the U.S, Americans might be dis-inclined to see it at the cinema.

Yeah well.. it talks about Tenet mainly which makes sense as Nolan's movies are original scripts as the article also states so spoilers are very real (i wouldn't want to be spoiled on a Nolan movie myself, he's one of the last unpredictable story writers and directors).

However with Dune it's a different animal - it's a book adaptation and not some small fringe book but one of the core SF novels that most have at least heard of, if not read it. So spoilers might not be as big of an issue here and maybe also not for some other movies, Mulan for example or any other basic hero movie (we know Bond will once again defeat the villain of the movie and maybe lose someone we're supposed to care about).

As the article also states movie chains are approaching critical mass - it won't be long before they start cutting deep to at least save the company in general and its most profitable locations. I doubt the industry can survive an additional 6 months of lockdown and no revenue but studios have somewhat moved beyond the holy cow of US box office as the sole and most important indicator of a movies' financial success since many big ticket movies have started to have their premieres outside of the US in the last decade (it's still an important sign of a movie does well in the north american market but the main revenue comes from the rest of the world usually).

So i think the studios might say screw it and release the movies gradually in markets that have reopened, spoilers or not, if the pressure becomes too great.

 

[wayoung]

but it only cost $70mil so it was much easier to recover the money.

I didn't realize Greyhound was that cheap, so that does make sense.

 

[Reverend]

Given the uncertainty, especially in the US where Californa locked down movie theaters again due to rise of Covid cases, how long do you think studios will be sitting on finished films and just waiting on the american market to become safe again?

Not the place to discuss this here so bear with me but it seems to me that conservative led countries (the US, Brazil, the UK etc) have major problems and are seeing their case numbers rise again but other countries like Germany have it well under control so maybe by fall they'll lift restrictions completely so studios may decide to release their movies where the market has reopened and social distancing not an issue anymore.

Do you think that may happen? Even big studios can't go on forever not making any revenue worth speaking of, especially if the spent hundreds of millions on summer blockbusters that are now sitting for months in the archives waiting for their release?

I know movie piracy is an issue but i believe not as big as to be able to sink a movie due to loss of profit but it may be some last straw maneuvre to at least make some profit to keep the studios afloat until normal operations can resume.

The short answer is: no, not really.

When it comes to sheer box office buying power the US is still one of only two or three markets that can make a serious dent in a hundreds of million dollar production + marketing cost movies. Releasing it in Germany and a handful of other countries that seem to have their shit together (though may just be about to hit the second spike, who the fuck knows right now?!) wouldn't be worth the expenditure.
Especially for the big movies that also have to roll out a metric tone of tie-in merch to help sell and promote the thing; doing it piecemeal would be a logistical nightmare.

Piracy isn't really a valid concern either since even now with worldwide simultaneous releases there's still a camera pirate copy of the latest blockbuster up within 6 hours of the doors opening. It's never been proven to impede a box office before and it wouldn't here either.

I think if they haven't already, Hollywood will come to two logical conclusions; 1) 2020 is more or less a write-off. 2) a lot of the movies they were supposed to be making for 2021 and 2022 are going to be delayed, leaving a massive gap in next year's release schedule.
Ergo the natural thing to do is probably just sit on the big movies for 8-12 months when this has (hopefully) all blown over and release them while they're sorting out and finishing off the productions that have been delayed and interrupted.

 

[The Wormhole]

Not the place to discuss this here so bear with me but it seems to me that conservative led countries (the US, Brazil, the UK etc) have major problems and are seeing their case numbers rise again but other countries like Germany have it well under control so maybe by fall they'll lift restrictions completely so studios may decide to release their movies where the market has reopened and social distancing not an issue anymore.

Indeed, the Corona response in a lot of countries is dependant entirely on the country's political leadership. According to a study done a year to two ago, the US is actually to country most prepared to deal with a pandemic based on available scientific and medical resources. The UK is also very near the top, definitely in the top five. Yet, because of their political leadership, they are among the worse countries responding to Corona. Meanwhile, countries which were listed very low in this study, or didn't even make the list like South Korea or New Zealand have in fact been the best handlers of the pandemic, again a reflection of their political leadership.

i wouldn't want to be spoiled on a Nolan movie myself, he's one of the last unpredictable story writers and directors

Eh, I went into Interstellar with no spoilers at all, and had the entire thing figured out within the first forty minutes.

 

[StarCruiser]

I don't think it's a "Conservative" political issue so much as a "Competent" political issue.

Irresponsible/incompetent leadership will result in greater loss of life - no matter what the cause of that loss of life is.

 

[JD]

but it only cost $70mil so it was much easier to recover the money.

I was reading an article the other day about the issue with release Tenet. Seems there's not only the cost of the film but something like $150mil in marketing to there's just no way they'll be able to recover that cost through selling the rights to Netflix or whoever.

If Netflix for example was going to pay out that sort of money they'd probably look to produce it under their own banner rather than as a complete buy-in.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/entertainment/tenet-delay-warner-bros-1.5656836

I think if they do start releasing more of the bigger movies like Dune online, it'll be through the paid rental/purchase services like Amazon, ITunes, and Vudu, rather than the free with subscription services like Netflix, Hulu, or Peacock. At least this way they have a chance of making back a decent amount of their money, rather than just relying on whatever they can get out of Netflix, Hulu, Peacock, ect.

 

[FPAlpha]

I think if they do start releasing more of the bigger movies like Dune online, it'll be through the paid rental/purchase services like Amazon, ITunes, and Vudu, rather than the free with subscription services like Netflix, Hulu, or Peacock. At least this way they have a chance of making back a decent amount of their money, rather than just relying on whatever they can get out of Netflix, Hulu, Peacock, ect.

Would people pay for spectacle movie like this even if it's only 5-6 bucks? Much of the appeal of big blockbusters like the Marvel movies is the big screen and the professional soundsystem, most people don't have a decent or professional home theatre system, at best it's a decently sized flatscreen since they are not that expensive anymore and some additional sound system if at all.

I also sincerely doubt such a release would put a 100-150+ million movie into the profitable category which by Hollywood customs means it must make at least 2-3 times it cost to be called a success. So the entire industry is in a big pickle - write off 2020 with all the long term damage (severely diminishing movie chain locations, mounting costs with no decent revenue) and concentrate on 2021 or mitigate losses by releasing the movies in regions where the virus is under control and restrictions have been (mostly) lifted so they at least have some cash flow going.

No one can make an informed decision as no one can accurately predict how the pandemic will develop, the US is on a massive downward slope, Europe is mixed and Asia too and some countries are too small to make a noticeable impact like New Zealand.

The long term damage in terms of Studios collapsing after this year or merging with others just to survive may yet to come.

What this means for Dune is that the execs are sitting in their offices with fingers crossed that by winter the worst has passed so they can release it but not having a decent trailer by now for such a big release worries me a bit and could be the first indicator that the studio might consider pushing it into 2021.

 

[Reverend]

I don't really see any of the major studios being in danger of collapse (not yet, anyway.) Yes this is taking a massive bite out of the yearly income, but with the production side of things shut down too, it means expenditures are down so if they're sensible the pinch may not be as bad.

 

[The Wormhole]

Yeah, the best bet probably would be to write off 2020 altogether. Most of the movies scheduled for 2021 release aren't likely to meet that, so all 2020 remaining 2020 releases can be shifted over to 2021 accordingly. There might be some headaches for studios that had release schedules up to 2025 mapped out, like Disney, but I doubt any studio is in any real danger of going down yet. And if they are, they likely had some serious financial concerns prior to the pandemic.

 

[wayoung]

The official Twitter movies account suggests there might be a surprise Dune panel. No telling if this is inside knowledge or just the person doing the tweets not realizing the existing panel is for the new books.

Edit:. The official movie account retweeted it

https://twitter.com/TwitterMovies/status/1286756062398382085?s=19

Edit:. New tweet!

we're definitely not confused. why? is there something you want to ask?

https://twitter.com/TwitterMovies/status/1286763466066235392?s=19