I don’t mind running with some out-there theories as they’ll probably be more interesting than what Kurtzman can come up with. His Salvation stuff was bonkers, but not in a good, well thought out way, so hopefully he’ll be reigned in a bit more on Picard.
If they keep referencing the captain who went *splat* on the windscreen without actually following it up with details on who he was, his history, what he looked like, the mystery of the ship etc, then it gets more likely that it’s Rios. But for now it’s just another theory I read here that I liked the idea of.