Every Star Trek show after TNG was the "least watched" at the time. But I agree, I'm not a fan of the paywall. PIC will probably be the first Star Trek series to be more watched than its immediate predecessor.
https://www.statista.com/chart/10311/netflix-subscriptions-usa-international/ Netflix has 90 million subscribers outside of the USA. That isn't much considering the amount of people living there. In comparison Netflix has 60 million subscribers in the USA with a population of only 330 million. So while Netflix might be a common thing in US households, it won't be the same in many other countries.
I know it will be for me. Only for the fact that I care about the character of Picard more than any of the Discovery crew. It was a moment of realization for me when I realized I wanted a Pike show more than another season of Discovery.
Considering Picard is likely to be in a schedule now where its seasons will come out earlier than Discovery's for the forseeable future (i.e., Season 1 done before Season 3 of DIS, and likely Season 2 beginning production before Season 4 of DIS) you're likely right so long as Discovery gets a fifth season it will go off the air later. That said, If Picard is a smash hit (as far as streaming shows go) I could see them going with a continuation in all but name for the "fourth season." Basically Stewart exits, and the "new cast" soldiers on - possibly with someone who is relatively young from Berman Trek and bankable (like say Jeri Ryan) as the new lead. Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised if Jeri was brought into the show for that very reason. Seven didn't have any within-show connection to Jean Luc, but if the overall arc of the show is Borg focused, she would be a natural replacement as lead if Stewart's health fails. Of course, Section 31 is going to be a Discovery spin off of sorts, as will Pike-Trek if it arrives, meaning Discovery will have "won" this competition anyway.
But not because of the lack or loss of knowledge of it. But because of the lack of the large scale resource management necessary for such things that only Empires could accomplish. Water control and flow systems continued to be built, and in fact being improved upon. Just on a much smaller scale, as little city States simply didn't have the money to build massive stonebridges through entire landscapes. But the lack of such large mega projects simply lead to a concentration on thousands of smaller scale projects. It was not a technological step backwards. Just in scale and focus.
I don't view it as a competition. If I didn't think DSC would be around much passed the third season, I'd say so. I think it will run four seasons minimum. From a hypothetical fifth season on, it's anyone's guess. I'm totally clueless about what Star Trek in general might do with the 32nd Century once Discovery opens up that Pandora Box and how they will or won't continue with it. I think Section 31 is the one most likely to be cancelled if it doesn't go over well, because of how unconventional it will be and because intensity against the concept by some is stronger here than for anything else. With Picard, you're probably right. Something else will be spun off it. The Pike we'd see in a Pike Series would be the one from Discovery but there are people who'd rather have a Pike Series than Discovery (as we both know), so whether or not Team Pike is the same as Team Disco is debatable, even though there's a lot of overlap. You'd have the Pro-DSC Pike Fans, the Anti-DSC Pike Fans, and the Neutral-DSC Pike Fans. I don't think a full-on series is where they're going to go with Pike, though. I think a Pike Series wasn't part of their plan and they were caught off-guard. And Anson Mount doesn't want to do a full series, I don't think. So I'm imagining either mini-series with him or TV Movies. I don't know how CBSAA will handle Lower Decks over the long term, as it's an animated series -- even though it's intended for adults -- but if we look at just the live-action material, that's Discovery, Picard, Section 31, and if you through Pike into the mix, that's a full year of live-action Star Trek. You might be able to get away with Lower Decks airing at the same time as a live-action Star Trek as it's an animated series and some people just won't watch a "cartoon". I think most of these series will not run seven seasons. They clearly want to do a Starfleet Academy series too. And no way would that be able to be slotted in if they wanted to do one live-action series at a time. But I do think they might hold off on Starfleet Academy until they can get some kids roped in with the Nickelodeon Series. Once they have more younger fans, that's the time to unleash Starfleet Academy. As it is, this is one of the few places where 40 makes me feel young. That post went longer than I intended. Anyway, that's my estimation of where all the series stand.
I have no clue to the popularity or fate of Discovery. Netflix seems to cancel a lot of shows prior to their fourth seasons (unless the show is super popular), as that is when raises kick in for their stars and content creators. We're in uncharted waters here, because we really have no idea of the expectations CBS is placing on their All-Access shows.
Very true. You're right. We are in uncharted waters. But we're also talking about CBS. If they could keep actors alive, there are probably certain shows they'd run until the real 23rd Century if they had their way. CBS and animated FOX sitcoms. They're the worst offenders. Eventually, I think CBS All Access will hit upon that one series -- whether it's Star Trek or not -- where they'll say, "We're never cancelling this! Not in a million years!" And nothing from the 10th season on will be worth watching.
Kurtzman was pretty definitive at NYCC that Discovery will not return to the 23rd Century. This seems to suggest that if a fourth season happens (which I think is more likely than not, but it might not air until 2022) it will build on the third, rather than wiping the slate clean again. I think it's dangerous to conclude anything from vitriol on the forums quite honestly. I do have to say that a Section 31 show "done right" would probably be semi-episodic - or at least have a bunch of mini-arcs - because secret agents tend to work on a lot of different unrelated projects over time. Also in terms of Trek in particular, I think they'd be better off having Georgiou and her "crew" doing missions on alien planets outside the Federation, because too much focus on counterintelligence within the Federation will really, really piss off the people who want to see this era as being quasi-utopian. Yep. In addition to what I already said, I presume that if Chabon is a successful showrunner (and makes boku bucks doing this - which is why he migrated into hollywood - little money in literature) there's going to be a lot of desire to move him and whatever writing team he has assembled to a new show to work the same magic. Yeah, I can see this. Honestly, as I've said before, I think that this is the future of TV anyway. If you look at a lot of Netflix shows for kids, they often release very short "seasons" in relatively short succession - sometimes up to twice a year. I think this is a great format for Trek. Basically construct a story idea, figure out how many episodes you need to have it reach a tight conclusion, and film them and release them, then take a short haitus and release whatever the next idea is. So it could be anything from a standalone feature to a miniseries. We need to remember - since we're seeing them in action on the Short Treks - the Discoprise sets are just sitting in CBS's Toronto studios collecting dust, which I think is a great argument in favor of some sort of Pike-Trek continuation. I really think Mount's reticence is the big issue. I wouldn't be surprised if he's a hard bargainer they decide to do a Robert April miniseries just to amortize some of the cost. My prediction is Lower Decks will run for quite awhile. Animated shows are much, much cheaper to make than live action - the most expensive ones are about $2 million per episode, largely due to use of A-list talent, and the tendency for salaries for both the voice actors and the creative team to rise over time. Lower Decks can be way below that initially. As I've noted in the past, the decision to have it be only one year after Nemesis also allows for basically every surviving Trek character/actor to eventually have a cameo - and the writers have already indicated they plan to do this. Therefore in the longer run I see it having the greatest appeal to die-hard Trekkie nerds who just want to have in-jokes and references to old episodes and characters. It could easily run for ten seasons or something. I'm still not sold on Starfleet Academy, but as I've said in the past, I think the the secret for a successful show would be to model it on Harry Potter - where the drama of classes and the like is in the background, and there's some sort of bigger "hidden adventure" the protagonists take each year. They aren't going to get more than four years out of the concept however without completely rebooting with a new entering class.
I was primed to like DSC. I don't. Can't say I hate it. I've really liked some of the shorts. It was disappointing, which is as much on me for having unrealistic expectations. The whole EPICNESS-always gets really old. Esp when you know how things are gonna turn out by Cage time. I know, "Plot doesn't matter, it's about the characters." Somewhat BS. Plot matters, or why have one, just do short Trek vignettes, ha ha. I want what-ifs, moral dilemmas; a season-long arc even if just about the fate of a planet -- if you make me care about the planet, that's great. Work your magic, writers. I cared about one dude and his family and meth in Albuquerque. Now I care about some low-grade attorney and his associates. Stop the uber-mega-ness, I would say. (Oh, and write characters I like.) I'm puttin a LOT of hope in PIC. Trust Chabon.
The kind of people who care about only characterization, not plot, are not science fiction fans. The whole point of science fiction is to put characters into scenarios that could not happen in our current time and place, or to use allegorical storytelling to shed light on some contemporary issue. If you're not doing either one of those, the setting is just window dressing.
Unless you are doing Star Trek post 1987. If everyone is looking forward to a return to more TNG style stories, the one's that franchise "savior" Michael Piller promoted, then the plot is not primary. As Ira Steven Behr described Piller's approach, "plot serves to reveal character." Character is foremost.
I'd still argue that the SFnal concepts are central to the best Berman-era Trek, with a few notable exceptions like Family or Far Beyond the Stars. Basically the amazing episodes fall into two types. There's episodes like The Inner Light, Tapestry, or The Visitor - which even if they don't require the SF framing, would need some sort of "magic" to work. And then there are episodes like Duet and In the Pale Moonlight, which were allegorical character studies mirroring aspects of real history.
I was really excited when it was first airing but now after I've had time to reflect on it, I'm not thrilled about it. It doesn't have any re-watch potential for me. I can't imagine ever taking the effort to deliberately re-watch it.
I find Discovery more entertaining in the moment - and with greater overall episode quality - than ENT or VOY. That said, the series aimed much higher than either series in terms of what it tried to achieve, and missed those marks. In contrast, VOY and ENT basically didn't have ambitions beyond providing a mildly entertaining hour of television, and succeeding in hitting that about 50% of the time.
I think they should return to the early 24th Century, between TUC and TNG is a pretty blank slate, with plenty of room to fill in some blanks without stepping on established continuity.