Carbon-free fusion power could be ‘on the grid in 15 years’

So another update from one of the Fusion power contenders: Lawrenceville Plasma Physics (LPP) has finally started their beryllium electrode experiment with their upgraded reactor. LPP is interesting, as its fare more transparent than any other effort, being supported by volunteer donations.

 

The thing is that it's always a decade away. It's been that way for nearly four decades.

 

Yep . Pretty much this.

Although we are on the way to almost flying cars with things like Uber Air.

If it happens.

 

The fusion energy gain factor Q (power produced/power needed to sustain fusion) needs to be at least 5 for engineering breakeven and 20 for economic breakeven. Self-sustaining ignition corresponds to a Q factor of infinity. I'd like to see what Q factors are being claimed for these new reactors on the block.

 

I don't know that any of them are giving that out, except maybe to the funders in whatever kind of prospectus they get. LPP is supposed to be aneutronic in production, so they'd be opting for direct electrical production. The q-factor requirements would be somewhat diferent for that system and for IEC aneutronic systems as well. They may do a neutronic demonstration and they'd certainly learn a lot more about managing the plasma state but moving on to boron i think has always been the goal.

 

They'll keep trying
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technol...ource-boundless-clean-energy-inside-britains/

Fusion/solar
www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-50267017
www.livescience.com/fusion-power-new-method-plasma-guns.html

 

would love to seem them run JET to breakeven as a last act on that device, once they're done with it, assuming breakeven has not been hit by then.

 

TAE apparently is hitting 3 3 keV plasma at up to 30ms confinement. This ballpark is around 35 million degrees centigrade. Depending on their fuel they should be able to burn tritium-deuterium when the other issues are sorted out. I don't think they plan their Norman machine to reach breakeven, but it looks like they are hitting where the expected to be with this device, and as I understand it, the next one is for all the marbles.
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http://absimage.aps.org/image/DPP19/MWS_DPP19-2019-000537.pdf

 

Yeah but when will any of this be a commercial power source? 10 or 15 years plus a few more?

 

people get a boner for saying 10 to 15 years and always will yadda yadda, but that implies no progress. I'm not sure. TAE has stated about 5 years. They and a few other companies are far closer than anyone has ever been before. It's a bit of a race at this point.

 

I know I tried to be a little facetious with my comment. It's just the thing that you keep reading whenever someone mentions fusion.

 

It does seem to be one of those things that's always 10-15 years away. I've got no doubt it will happen but I suspect people have been overly optimistic in their estimates of how long it would take to become practical. But at some point in time that 10-15 years will actually be accurate. And perhaps that's now?

 

Just musing on that.

What would the world be like now if commercial fusion was a reality? Would things be better or worse?

 

Well for one thing I suspect there wouldn't be so many issues about the contributions of coal power to climate change.

 

That's a given I think. But I'm trying to imagine the world now if fusion were a commercial reality and what kind of things we would have at our disposal. Fusion power, cars, etc.

 

The possibilities are limitless... Even solar cells (dirty to produce, takes way too much land area per watt) and wind generators (don't get me started on the impact to birds/insects etc...) would be essentially obsolete overnight. No need for natural gas power plants, let alone coal fired.

The only purpose for fission plants would be for deliberate production of useful isotopes for science and medicine...

 

Electrical power would be essentially limited only by the speed and space to build fusion power plants. The cost per kilowatt while not free would become so low over time (Realizing these plants could be amortized over long periods of time because of a lack of harmful pollutants) that economies would have to be restructured.

Cheap electrical power would allow for easier access to desalinization, allowing projects to return areas lost to desertification and providing drinking water for millions.

Petroleum would still have its uses for certain things but the use of it would gradually drop off. Coal would be dead, it's not well as it is. Fusion power for space based applications would open up the solar system to colonization. The positive effects of fusion on climate change cannot be understated, either.

In short in my opinion fusion will change humanity in ways as great as the development of agriculture and metallurgy and possibly even sliced bread. It will fundamentally change humanity as a society and a species.

 

"A Sea Change" as it were...

There would literally be no aspect of human life and civilization that would not be affected by such a major breakthrough. The initial investment cost would be high (already is, based on how much has been spent in research) but, as noted above, amortizing that cost over time will bring it down very quickly.

All of the positives are overwhelming to the few negatives - and there are, of course, some negatives. There will be a period of adjustment. Some industries will completely collapse, or have to restructure dramatically. Some people will have to be re-educated since some types of jobs will almost certainly disappear. There will probably be some pollution involved in the process of building reactors (no free lunch folks) and site prep will impact the local environment.

Once you get past those issues, I think it's far beyond worthwhile as fusion solves so many issues and actually take humanity to the next stage of civilization.

 

Just like uranium shops on every street corner like what "Back to the Future" predicted!

Hopefully they're computer controlled. Even today's computer controlled vehicles can't stop rush hour or collisions.

 

Max Planck Institute and University of Wisconsin-Madison are about to begin a joint project using the Wendlestein 7-x stellarator to study the power exhaust plasma from the device itself.