The contact with the Klingons was centuries ago, led to decades of war and supposedly resulted in the adoption of the First Contact procedure.
All of these factors rule out the incident depicted in "Broken Bow", because it neither happened multiple centuries before Picard's words, nor would have gone better had UFP-style First Contact Rules been followed. Whether it was disastrous can be debated, but certainly the immediate and direct result wasn't decades of war.
But Picard isn't just an Earthling. Since he represents all the species of the Federation, it is tempting to think that he's speaking of Vulcan first contact with the Klingons. If that went disastrously, sometime in the 18th century or so, and led to decades of interstellar war that the Vulcans then won, this would explain both why Vulcans are proponents of UFP-style First Contact Rules in the ENT era, and why Klingons are well known to them yet keep their distance from Vulcan and, incidentally, Earth.
In any case, the decades of Klingon war are unlikely to be compatible with the specific war we're speculating upon here, considering Picard's definer of "centuries ago". And this was basically always so, because "centuries ago" as of mid-TNG already makes the issue pre-2161 unless we really twist Picard's words. UFP first contact never was a serious option in interpreting the dialogue; human first contact, probably even less so.
Timo Saloniemi
All of these factors rule out the incident depicted in "Broken Bow", because it neither happened multiple centuries before Picard's words, nor would have gone better had UFP-style First Contact Rules been followed. Whether it was disastrous can be debated, but certainly the immediate and direct result wasn't decades of war.
But Picard isn't just an Earthling. Since he represents all the species of the Federation, it is tempting to think that he's speaking of Vulcan first contact with the Klingons. If that went disastrously, sometime in the 18th century or so, and led to decades of interstellar war that the Vulcans then won, this would explain both why Vulcans are proponents of UFP-style First Contact Rules in the ENT era, and why Klingons are well known to them yet keep their distance from Vulcan and, incidentally, Earth.
In any case, the decades of Klingon war are unlikely to be compatible with the specific war we're speculating upon here, considering Picard's definer of "centuries ago". And this was basically always so, because "centuries ago" as of mid-TNG already makes the issue pre-2161 unless we really twist Picard's words. UFP first contact never was a serious option in interpreting the dialogue; human first contact, probably even less so.
Timo Saloniemi