Would you prefer Trek XII in Christmas 2011?

[Borgminister]

In two weeks, Transformers was right at 300 million. 340 million after 3 weeks. Christmas vacation is at least 2-3 weeks.

The word-of-mouth generated this time should mean that those late-combers will line up at the front end, instead of the back end, of the movie's run.

I don't think 350 million over 5-6 weeks of Christmas/New Year's is impossible.

And the European weather factor is also a valid one, I would think. Although plenty of Europeans sat in theaters for Transformers...

 

[cooleddie74]

By no LATER than December of 2011 so far as I'm concerned. We need to go back to the pattern of a new TREK movie every two to 2-1/2 years at the most barring some unforseen problems with the studio.

 

[Flake]

Someone mentioned Avatar. If Avatar manages a big gross in December then I think they will put Trek there. Maybe they are waiting to see how it does? If it tanks or performs below expectations then they release it in Summer 2012.

If they arent sure how a big-budget scifi tentpole can do in Winter then I suppose the best thing to do is wait and see how Avatar does.

 

[MvRojo]

In two weeks, Transformers was right at 300 million. 340 million after 3 weeks. Christmas vacation is at least 2-3 weeks.

The word-of-mouth generated this time should mean that those late-combers will line up at the front end, instead of the back end, of the movie's run.

I don't think 350 million over 5-6 weeks of Christmas/New Year's is impossible.

And the European weather factor is also a valid one, I would think. Although plenty of Europeans sat in theaters for Transformers...

And for Ice Age 3 and HP6, which both made well over $600 million internationally.

It's not impossible for $350 million in 5-6 weeks, but incredibly unlikely since only ROTK and Titanic made over $350 million opening during the winter, and they took 8-9 weeks to do so.

 

[Flake]

HP4 - November 05 - $290 Million
HP5 - July 07 - $292 Million

Not much of a difference between Summer and Winter for the Potter movies? Everyone still turns out to see them regardless.

 

[cooleddie74]

All six STAR WARS films between 1977 and 2005 premiered in May or June of their respective years. But I could see them all being huge blockbusters even if they had been wintertime/Holiday releases. Some films will be mega-smashes no matter what time of the year they first show up at megaplexes.

 

[T'Girl]

There is also the consideration of the award shows, like oscars, which I know star trek is a long shot for. But it seem that movies late in the year have a harder time. Yes Titanic was a late movie. We can usual at least pick up some technical awards.

 

[Peter the Younger]

I'm sort of surprised to hear how few films do big numbers over the holidays, but if that's the case I can understand their trepidation. Still, I don't see anything resembling an open weekend in the 2011 summer schedule. I hate to say it, but as revitalized as Trek is, it's still going to be the bridsemaid if put up against HP or a big comic book movie.

 

[Borgminister]

I'm sort of surprised to hear how few films do big numbers over the holidays, but if that's the case I can understand their trepidation. Still, I don't see anything resembling an open weekend in the 2011 summer schedule. I hate to say it, but as revitalized as Trek is, it's still going to be the bridsemaid if put up against HP or a big comic book movie.

Given how well the movie did against "comic book" movies this time, I'd say that fear--while understandable, as I share it--is illogical.

If it has 2 weeks basically to itself, it'll get to 300 plus easy.

 

[MvRojo]

I'm sort of surprised to hear how few films do big numbers over the holidays, but if that's the case I can understand their trepidation. Still, I don't see anything resembling an open weekend in the 2011 summer schedule. I hate to say it, but as revitalized as Trek is, it's still going to be the bridsemaid if put up against HP or a big comic book movie.

Given how well the movie did against "comic book" movies this time, I'd say that fear--while understandable, as I share it--is illogical.

If it has 2 weeks basically to itself, it'll get to 300 plus easy.

Well, Summer 2011 will probably have "good" comic book films since there are two Marvel-produced films (away from the crap-producing hands of Fox).

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

No.

Summer is better.

You never know--wait and see what Avatar does.

From Thanksgiving to the New Year is plenty of time to make 300-350 million, isn't it?

A few movies make big money at Christmas.

A lot more movies make big money during the Summer.

Trek is designed now as Big Summer Movies.

They'd be silly to take the chance of releasing one at Christmas.

 

[trevanian]

You never know--wait and see what Avatar does.

From Thanksgiving to the New Year is plenty of time to make 300-350 million, isn't it?

The Bond movies have thrived for over ten years by being placed in the winter.

They've also never made more than $168 million domestically.

The reason the Bonds have been winter releases (after being mostly summer releases through 1989) is because Bond couldn't compete in summer anymore, at least in this country. They saw the problem as far back as VIEW TO A KILL in 85, but kept plugging along. Summer 89 knocked Bond and Trek and Karate Kid franchises, plus plenty of other films for a loop ... this abrams thing was the first trek to release in summer since TFF.

The Bond pictures also have a tendency, especially during the last 15 years, to cram 9 months worth of post work into 3, making the films and the fx suffer. If they'd actually spend a little time tweaking and finessing, the return would probably offset the interest accruing from holding the film over another half year (that approach apparently didn't hurt abrams' trek, which bumped back from a winter release. If Paramount had been smart, they'd've held TFF back 6 months and released it in winter like TVH ... another 2mil in finessing and tweaks might have helped, and certainly the competition would have been less. )