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Why did the Xindi test their weapon on earth (and not another planet)?

The thing is there were so many factions in the TCW.

Sulliban
The Xindi
Sphere Builders
Tholians
Vosk and his faction.

I keep thinking that maybe there were others involved that were never mentioned in the show.
For instance which faction had that ship that was bigger on the inside in the episode "Future Tense," that even the Tholians got involved trying to recover the ship. It seemed like everybody knew about it and what it was for except for the people on Enterprise.

But yes the Xindi testing that weapon on Earth is kind of messed up because it gave them a big red flare to go looking for them.
 
Maybe they figured that if the big weapon didn't work, the little weapon might muck us up bad enough that we wouldn't be able to destroy them.

Of course, it more likely would have made us so mad, we would destroy them sooner.

Never said they were smart.
 
Not quite. Okay, so perhaps the first, smallest weapon was once tested there, too. But when our heroes got there, the Xindi were testing a larger weapon, which as far as we can tell was never going to go operational. The midsize device seen in "Proving Ground" was just a test rig for the final, largest Death Star, the one that was going to blow Earth to bits. Degra was under a lot of pressure to finish the biggest weapon specifically, and the midsize one was no good except as a subscale test - there never was any talk of yanking it out of the testing program and deploying it against Earth.

For some weird reason, all the three weapons shown were called "probes" in some context or another. But the only reason our heroes had for thinking that the first attack was a mere test was because Future Guy told Archer so. The Xindi themselves never admitted to such a thing.

Timo Saloniemi
 
Future Guy was a dick.
He probably could have helped our heroes a lot more instead he seemed to play all sides.
 
There are two occasions when things that should have REALLY messed up the timeline are just "let happen". One was the death of 3000+ in "Shockwave". The other was the initial assault and 7 million deaths in "The Expanse". 7 million fatalities, 700 years earlier in history, plus the butterfly effect, would have deleted basically everyone from the future timeline. Hell, Kirk and Picard would've been deleted as well, along with every other human on any later Trek, just because history would have changed so much.
 
Future Guy was a dick.
He probably could have helped our heroes a lot more instead he seemed to play all sides.

We don’t really know if Daniels was really a good guy. Compered to Vosk, yes, but in general? Future Guy & Silik seemed to be more helpful to Archer than Daniels ever was, even though they were supposed to be the antagonists. Yet, Silik still owed Daniels for something.

There are two occasions when things that should have REALLY messed up the timeline are just "let happen". One was the death of 3000+ in "Shockwave". The other was the initial assault and 7 million deaths in "The Expanse". 7 million fatalities, 700 years earlier in history, plus the butterfly effect, would have deleted basically everyone from the future timeline. Hell, Kirk and Picard would've been deleted as well, along with every other human on any later Trek, just because history would have changed so much.

When the timeline was resetting itself at the end of the TCW, the probe was still attacking Earth. Either the timeline never really reset, or that event was always supposed to happen.

Whether those 3000+ in "Shockwave" were resurrected after the timeline reset was never brought up in the series.
 
It was always meant to be because when they did finally return to Earth after all this the Xindi attack was mentioned.
 
Another thing we don't know is whether the first probe hit the intended targets. There's no particular reason to think it did not blow up absolutely essential Starfleet facilities - indeed, the relatives of a Starfleet employee being in the path of destruction might be a direct hint that there's a Starfleet place of employ in Florida.

(Or, possibly, in Venezuela - we can clearly see the destruction never hits Panama City, FL, but it does hit Panama City, Panama aka Venezuela! Was that where Trip's sister actually lived?)

In any case, hitting the shores and center of the Caribbean might have been a smart strategic move, destroying the anti-starship fortresses of the Western Hemisphere, blowing up a thousand interceptors home-based in Havana, and knocking out the global communications hub at Panama City. And leaving the Admirals in San Francisco high and dry, with nothing but their desks to fly and fight with.

Timo Saloniemi
Florida should always be a useful launch place, unless anti-gravity is so cheap and easy that the rotational boost it provides is totally unneccessary.
Patching the cracks, a shuttle could go up to orbit from San Francisco, but heavier launches might still be based at Canaveral.
 
Maybe they figured that if the big weapon didn't work, the little weapon might muck us up bad enough that we wouldn't be able to destroy them.

Of course, it more likely would have made us so mad, we would destroy them sooner.

Never said they were smart.
A general attitude among the losing sides of wars is:
"We are brave, and adversity will only strengthen our resolve."
"They are weak, and will surrender in the face of adversity."

The Xindi might under-estimate human stubborness in that way.
 
The Xindi were stupid.... For a technological race they believed the sphere builders were gods so they are also superstitious by nature.... That wasn't ever going to work out well for them.
 
There are two occasions when things that should have REALLY messed up the timeline are just "let happen". One was the death of 3000+ in "Shockwave". The other was the initial assault and 7 million deaths in "The Expanse". 7 million fatalities, 700 years earlier in history, plus the butterfly effect, would have deleted basically everyone from the future timeline.

The resolution to the two was dissimilar. Daniels was fine with patching up the "Shockwave" incident so that it happening was still compatible with the history he knew: all that mattered was that Archer's team was absolved of blame and guilt. OTOH, Daniels never indicated that the events of "The Expanse" would have been contrary to his preferred timeline: apparently, this preferred timeline included a well-fought Temporal War (read: his side won) rather than the negation of one.

Time in Trek works without a butterfly effect anyway, for whatever reason. Minor changes such as the death of one, or the deaths of 3000+, do not cascade into big changes but instead get damped out. A couple of models for how this could be:

1) Time is the sum total of all time travel, and time travel happens a lot - infinitely so, in fact. Most time travelers in the Milky Way are humanlike, so time in these parts reflects human beliefs and mores. And humans are petty, so time is, too: change might benefit others, so change gets squashed, and status quo promoted.

2) Our heroes always end up "altering the past" in ways that "restore" their preferred present/future, not because the stuff done in the past would result in restoration, but because the mechanism of time travel makes our heroes prefer whatever outcome they create. If they go to the past to stop Billy Bob Nowan from being assassinated, they will return to a future where him being alive and well in 1998 is desirable and important to this future - and they retroactively end up having started from such a future as well, even if another set of Kirks, Spock, McCoys and so forth was perfectly happy with the world where Billy Bob Nowan died and the world saw two centuries of unbroken peace and calm as the result.

3) The butterfly effect simply doesn't exist: there will always be a Jim Kirk, even if somebody stomping on a lepidopterioid made a zillion people die and Jim Kirk look more like Chris Pine or Lloyd Bridges than William Shatner. Or, rather, everything changes when something changes, but down the timestream, the changes accumulate in infinitely many ways, and the camera always follows the one way that results in an essentially unaltered future.

Florida should always be a useful launch place, unless anti-gravity is so cheap and easy that the rotational boost it provides is totally unnecessary. Patching the cracks, a shuttle could go up to orbit from San Francisco, but heavier launches might still be based at Canaveral.

Florida isn't on the equator, though. Out of the places hit by the first weapon, all the others would be superior, with free ocean to the east but better torque from the latitude. Unless one assumes the island of Cuba won't have the infrastructure access the two continental spots would enjoy (it's a big place with room for said infrastructure, but perhaps it's a natural preserve, or again a political pariah, or full of dinosaurs, or zombies from the last biowar, or all of the above) And if overseas transport is not a problem, then perhaps spaceports should be mid-oceanic to begin with?

Nothing wrong with using Florida as a North American spaceport location, though.

Timo Saloniemi
 
Of course, on the one hand, there are many ways to fill this plothole and I don't want to say, that there aren't good ideas about it out there. On the other hand, nothing of it ever found its way into the narrative. For me, it will always feel like the authors did one of the dumbest thing, authors could do: They wanted to create a mystery (Why did the Xindi attack Earth?) without knowing the answer at this point of the production.

For being in this situation, they really worked it out, yes, but the beginning of this story with a (for ST's case) unusual stringent plot always will be its 'Achilles heel'. While watching, I always waited for a point, where they send the purified Degra back in time to convince the council, that the chosen planet for the test must be Earth, just using some far-fatched arguments. I'm not sure if this would have been the best way to explain this dumb move, but it easily would have been better than nothing.
 
instead of the test tipping off starfleet they could have written it as receiving a cryptic garbled degraded (and presumably very distancely sourced) subspace message warning them that came from a Xindi that knew of but didn't approve of the coming attack. That could have started the mission the same as the attack did but been more plausible.
 
The out-of-universe explanation is that the writers were referencing the 9/11 attacks. They wanted to explore how a terrorist strike on Earth would affect the crew and they chose Florida because Trip's sister was to be one of those killed by the weapon.

I don't think they gave much thought to whether the Xindi actions made any kind of logical sense.
 
Maybe the first probe was akin to 'lets give them a taste of what we can do and maybe it will discourage Humans from destroying us in the future'... similar to what Janeway did with species 8472 - launching smaller warheads and incurring some casualties and encourage them to back off as opposed to making a large scale weapon of mass destruction that would endanger innocent worlds... in fact, when you showcase you can strike at your enemy with such efficiency, it might encourage retreat mentality (and 8472 were all about peak biological evolution - and didn't care much for biological weapons capable of infecting them - heck, this species lived for so long on its own and has incredibly powerful immune response that they would have thought themselves to be virtually indestructible).

From the Xindi perspective, the reptilians and the insectoids pushed for the test probe to be launched at Earth (probably at the request of the sphere builders).
The Sphere Builders (and likely Inesctoids and Reptilians) wanted immediate results, so the builders ran probabilities and determined that launching the probe directly at Earth might incur changes to the timeline in their favor... and this may have been the case for a bit... until Archer pleaded with the admiralty to let him go into the Expanse (it was suggested at first hat the admiralty were considering reinforcing their defenses and staying put for a while at first) - plus, it was just 1 ship.

Then when the NX-01 entered the Expanse, started uncovering the mystery of the spheres, etc. timelines started changing.

But yeah, otherwise, if the Xindi (and Sphere builders really wanted to destroy Earth), they could have tested the weapon inside the Expanse in one of their weapon testing areas and just launch the final weapon at Earth a year later. That way, Earth wouldn't know until it was too late... unless of course they were warned by temporal agents.
 
Of course, they WOULD have been warned by temporal agents. It was in the future guy's and Daniels' interests to prevent Earth's destruction.

The Xindi didn't make a tactical error here, 22nd century humanity was incapable of either tracing the attack back to them or building defenses against it. Continuing down the timeline from Florida strike, Earth absolutely would have been annihilated. The deviation came from time traveler intervention (which is appropriate, since time travelers on an opposing side spurred the Xindi in the first place).
 
I guess the interesting question here is, did the Sphere Builders want some temporal agents to respond? Was that a tactical or strategic goal for them, with the possible damaging or destroying of Earth an irrelevant and incidental thing?

The Xindi were told to go after Earth because the Sphere Builders wanted to undo the Earth-centered alliance that would fight them in the 26th century. Might be they knew that with Earth just tantalizingly hurt, aid would rush in and would hurt the credibility of the future alliance ("Hey, they are just another bunch of those no-good time criminals!"), while simply blowing up the place would make the other side sigh and not bother - or then get so mad that they'd directly attack the Builders worse than the Alliance of Mere Mortals.

We still lack any evidence that the first Xindi attack would have been in any fashion experimental. This could have been a tried and true weapon of Type A, intended to finish off the enemy with a few hours of bombardment - but when it failed, politics dictated that Type B be given the opportunity. (And, in the meantime, the bioweapon, and perhaps some other weapons we never saw.) But Future Guy describing the thing as an experiment would give Earth hope and a schedule, no matter how false, for sending the mission that would serve Future Guy's interests.

Timo Saloniemi
 
Here's a question... why build something powerful enough to demolish a planet (that's a sphere of rock 13,000 km in diameter) in the first place? A ship a tenth as powerful as the one they unleashed could have simply sterilized the planet surface, and been launched far more quickly.

The only reason for destroying a planet is if the planet itself is the problem (like when the Vogons blew up the Earth because it was in the way).
 
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