Who is going to win this election in November?
- Thread starter fonzob1
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Trump.
Hillary I hope.
They're both scum but she's the experienced politician and he's a circus act who"s in over his head. She'll win.
^^ I wish. At least being in Massachusetts, I can safely vote for him.
I'm pretty confident Clinton will win. It's mind boggling that a creature like Trump can even be on the radar for President of the United States-- somebody like Reagan seems positively benign in comparison. Hopefully, Trump's greatest legacy will be the destruction of the Republican Party.
I'm pretty confident Clinton will win. It's mind boggling that a creature like Trump can even be on the radar for President of the United States-- somebody like Reagan seems positively benign in comparison. Hopefully, Trump's greatest legacy will be the destruction of the Republican Party.
Some things to consider about Trump though...
- He has an incredible amount of financial backing.
- He has recognition as a celebrity.
The first will obviously allow him to hammer away with advertising. The difference is razor thin right now, but the candidate with more money may be able to do more to chip away between now and election time.
The second I think goes a long way in drawing the modern day voter. Trump, despite his faults, has an extremely loyal base of voters. If you look at Obama's campaign in 2008, he had more financial backing than any prior candidate for President, and he had reached celebrity status with voters.
Oh, he definitely could win. This is not going to be an "easy win" for Hillary. It'll be much closer than it should be.
Huh? How far behind Trump is in funding has been a big story for a month. Trump has scared off so many donors the organizers had to send out a begging letter because they were short on money to run the Republican Convention. Just today in the WSJ:
Hedge-Fund Money: $48.5 Million for Hillary Clinton, $19,000 for Donald Trump
Unless you have some information that the situation has completely reversed since the last FEC figures, I would say that whatever troubles Clinton may have, financing isn't one of them.
I hope Donald Trump loses, and takes the Republican platform with him. This is a socially-liberal country. We believe in Marriage Equality, we are turning into a majority-minority nation as Trump declares he will build a wall to keep out Mexicans and outlaw Muslim immigration. They destroyed Marco Rubio as a flip-flopper, and not quite Conservative enough, for trying to do Comprehensive Immigration Reform. Bill O'Reilly just said that slaves were "well-fed" when they built the White House, as a take-down of Michelle Obama's point that her daughters were able to play on the White House lawn, and that shows how far the country has come in 150 years. They refuse to do anything about our unequal justice system. The majority of Americans hate Congress, want something done about Climate Change, and religion is not the wedge issue it used to be. They re-write scientific texts to put a sentence in the Bible next to peer-reviewed science. The majority of Americans believe in Abortion, especially when the life of the mother is in question, or the child is of incest or rape.
They make this too easy on Election Day, and very hard to govern. We need two, moderate, sane parties and the Republicans made a tactical error in embracing the right--the TEA Party--in 2010. They won the battle, the 2010 elections, and lost the war. The economy is all Obama's fault. Yes, all 9.8 million created jobs, now are a part of his legacy. Saving the auto industry is his accomplishment. They fought him for 11 months on the ACA. Now, Republicans are writing thank-you notes to President Obama, for saving their lives. If they had worked with him, not let him have a single piece of legislation without a Republican co-sponsor, they could've made Newt Ginrich's argument--"I went to Washington, and got something done."
I am a pansexual, liberal, feminist, agnostic. Say that to your average TEA Party member, they will call me "evil." All I need is to be a shade of brown, and I would be everything that is "destroying their country." Well, will I vote for anyone who calls me "evil?" On the subject of "evil," if President Obama wants to destroy America--put us in FEMA camps and ACORN will bring about Communism in America, and the Black Panthers' surrogate will kill white people--how can you go to Congress, and vote with that President? Stop demonizing politicians. They can't govern after that.
So, with that said, the platform changes, or the Republicans, as a national power, go the way of the Whigs. Libertarians rise, or a Progressive Party a la Bernie Sanders, to be the second party. Why? Because, they hate Americans that aren't white, cisgender, male, Christians. That definition of an American is going to change. They have anti-intellectualism as the basis of their party, saying schools are liberal indoctrination centers. They embrace the institutions of society, and are brain-dead--you are with police officers or you are with black people--when they talk about issues that are more complex than simply labeling your opponent a "racist" or "anti-police." They are with the soldiers, unless they are gay (one got booed asking a questions about "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" in 2012), or Muslim, or after they come home (how many are homeless or have committed suicide?) These are corporate policies dressed up in Americana and sold to the Middle Class as Patriotism.
So, lose, Donald Trump. Lose big. And take the Republican platform with you.
They make this too easy on Election Day, and very hard to govern. We need two, moderate, sane parties and the Republicans made a tactical error in embracing the right--the TEA Party--in 2010. They won the battle, the 2010 elections, and lost the war. The economy is all Obama's fault. Yes, all 9.8 million created jobs, now are a part of his legacy. Saving the auto industry is his accomplishment. They fought him for 11 months on the ACA. Now, Republicans are writing thank-you notes to President Obama, for saving their lives. If they had worked with him, not let him have a single piece of legislation without a Republican co-sponsor, they could've made Newt Ginrich's argument--"I went to Washington, and got something done."
I am a pansexual, liberal, feminist, agnostic. Say that to your average TEA Party member, they will call me "evil." All I need is to be a shade of brown, and I would be everything that is "destroying their country." Well, will I vote for anyone who calls me "evil?" On the subject of "evil," if President Obama wants to destroy America--put us in FEMA camps and ACORN will bring about Communism in America, and the Black Panthers' surrogate will kill white people--how can you go to Congress, and vote with that President? Stop demonizing politicians. They can't govern after that.
So, with that said, the platform changes, or the Republicans, as a national power, go the way of the Whigs. Libertarians rise, or a Progressive Party a la Bernie Sanders, to be the second party. Why? Because, they hate Americans that aren't white, cisgender, male, Christians. That definition of an American is going to change. They have anti-intellectualism as the basis of their party, saying schools are liberal indoctrination centers. They embrace the institutions of society, and are brain-dead--you are with police officers or you are with black people--when they talk about issues that are more complex than simply labeling your opponent a "racist" or "anti-police." They are with the soldiers, unless they are gay (one got booed asking a questions about "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" in 2012), or Muslim, or after they come home (how many are homeless or have committed suicide?) These are corporate policies dressed up in Americana and sold to the Middle Class as Patriotism.
So, lose, Donald Trump. Lose big. And take the Republican platform with you.
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Trump being rich, and Trump having cash are not the same thing either. Obama spent $600 million on his campaign in 2012. This year it will probably cost each candidate even more. You need cash in the bank to fund that yourself, not lots of real estate.
Nobody "believes in abortion." That is not a part of any pro-choice platform I'm aware of. The majority of America believes that a full grown adult must have the protected right to do as they see fit with their own bodies. If the American government is able to control the bodies of 51% of the population, then this is not a free country.
Please, please, PLEASE let this be the case. I'm really terrified that Trump could win. I'm hoping with every fiber of my being that Clinton wins because the alternative would be an absolute nightmare. The way Trump supporters seem to believe in this fantasy of a glorious past, that we have to build walls, ban religions, push away refugees and insist on an insane degree of isolationism---it's fascism. There's no other word for it. All he needs is a mustache and Trump would be a fat, uneducated, orange Hitler. A large section of the population would gleefully turn the country into Nazi Germany. How does this not terrify people?
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I don't know which candidate will win, but I fear that the American people won't.
He has plenty of resources. I'm sure he will do just fine. lol
My brother and all my friends are supremely confident that Hillary will win comfortably. And I hope she does. But I'm not so sure. I'm nervous.
I don't like Hillary. I think she's bland. But she has experience, she can walk into the Oval Office tomorrow and govern instantly.
Trump is.....mind-boggling. I absolutely cannot believe that someone so thin-skinned, so unhinged, so immature, so quick to name-calling, temper-tantrums, who prefers to rely on bombast and bullying tactics over substance, who threatens violence against people who disagree with him....how has a man like this even been let anywhere NEAR the levers of power? It doesn't make any sense. If Barack Obama said one quarter of the things Trump has said, the Republicans would've been out for blood. They would NOT have stood for it. But for Trump, somehow it's okay to act like this. They seem to want to elect the schoolyard bully.
It doesn't make any sense, but this is what it's come to. This is what happens when you let the inmates take over the asylum, which is what they've gradually let happen since 2009. It flies in the face of all logic, but he will now be able to contest the actual General Election. And his supporters WILL vote for him. No matter what. It doesn't matter what Trump says. He says shit, backtracks the next day, and people don't care. No matter how incoherent his speeches are, or how incomplete his understanding of US policy is, it doesn't matter. They will vote for him. And that's why this is no slam dunk for Hillary.
Every one I talk to says "Hillary will eviscerate him in the debates. Or she'll just frustrate him and make him throw an incoherent tantrum millions of people will see." Well, sure, she could. And I hope he does. But it's also very likely that Trump trains well for the debates, "acts Presidential" and softens several of his hard-line stances and rhetoric, and comes across as someone who can take advice and change his mind. Most logical people will see this as acting on his part, and complete bullshit, but it could work with voters. Because voters in presidential elections are swayed by every little thing.
The Democrats make a huge deal about giving the nuclear codes over to a thin-skinned raging narcissist. And yes, that's a big deal. But Republicans scoff and say "So what, no one has used nukes in 70 years and Trump won't." But that's not how I see it. Rather, people need to ask themselves how Trump will conduct himself as representative of this country. We don't need someone who goes in a room with a leader and acts like an asshole. Or comes home and criticizes a world leader's appearance on Twitter (which is something I could see him doing). Or invite hackers to attack us. He'll say it's sarcasm but he doesn't GET it. As President you are the symbol of this country. Don't be an asshole. And Trump has shown that he's incapable of NOT being an asshole.
But from now until November 8th, Hillary can run every ad showing how Trump has said all sorts of things, and flipped on them, doubled-down on stupidity, mocked minorities and disabled people, mocked women. She can show how dangerous his stances are. She can show how un-Presidential and unhinged he is. But it won't matter. His supporters will vote for him no matter what, and this email thing will dog Hillary all the way.
I see it going one of two ways: Either Trump loses badly and gets (at most) 42%-44% of the vote, or it's close and it's a literal tossup until election day.
I don't like Hillary. I think she's bland. But she has experience, she can walk into the Oval Office tomorrow and govern instantly.
Trump is.....mind-boggling. I absolutely cannot believe that someone so thin-skinned, so unhinged, so immature, so quick to name-calling, temper-tantrums, who prefers to rely on bombast and bullying tactics over substance, who threatens violence against people who disagree with him....how has a man like this even been let anywhere NEAR the levers of power? It doesn't make any sense. If Barack Obama said one quarter of the things Trump has said, the Republicans would've been out for blood. They would NOT have stood for it. But for Trump, somehow it's okay to act like this. They seem to want to elect the schoolyard bully.
It doesn't make any sense, but this is what it's come to. This is what happens when you let the inmates take over the asylum, which is what they've gradually let happen since 2009. It flies in the face of all logic, but he will now be able to contest the actual General Election. And his supporters WILL vote for him. No matter what. It doesn't matter what Trump says. He says shit, backtracks the next day, and people don't care. No matter how incoherent his speeches are, or how incomplete his understanding of US policy is, it doesn't matter. They will vote for him. And that's why this is no slam dunk for Hillary.
Every one I talk to says "Hillary will eviscerate him in the debates. Or she'll just frustrate him and make him throw an incoherent tantrum millions of people will see." Well, sure, she could. And I hope he does. But it's also very likely that Trump trains well for the debates, "acts Presidential" and softens several of his hard-line stances and rhetoric, and comes across as someone who can take advice and change his mind. Most logical people will see this as acting on his part, and complete bullshit, but it could work with voters. Because voters in presidential elections are swayed by every little thing.
The Democrats make a huge deal about giving the nuclear codes over to a thin-skinned raging narcissist. And yes, that's a big deal. But Republicans scoff and say "So what, no one has used nukes in 70 years and Trump won't." But that's not how I see it. Rather, people need to ask themselves how Trump will conduct himself as representative of this country. We don't need someone who goes in a room with a leader and acts like an asshole. Or comes home and criticizes a world leader's appearance on Twitter (which is something I could see him doing). Or invite hackers to attack us. He'll say it's sarcasm but he doesn't GET it. As President you are the symbol of this country. Don't be an asshole. And Trump has shown that he's incapable of NOT being an asshole.
But from now until November 8th, Hillary can run every ad showing how Trump has said all sorts of things, and flipped on them, doubled-down on stupidity, mocked minorities and disabled people, mocked women. She can show how dangerous his stances are. She can show how un-Presidential and unhinged he is. But it won't matter. His supporters will vote for him no matter what, and this email thing will dog Hillary all the way.
I see it going one of two ways: Either Trump loses badly and gets (at most) 42%-44% of the vote, or it's close and it's a literal tossup until election day.
No 3rd-party candidate has ever won an American election, and very few have even made a dent. They don't have a chance.
I think it's going to be close and come down to a few hundred thousand votes in the battleground states. You have disgruntled voters on both sides who will vote 3rd party as a protest.
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