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Who is going to win this election in November?

Who will win the general presidential election?

  • Donald Trump

    Votes: 37 22.7%
  • Hillary Clinton

    Votes: 126 77.3%

  • Total voters
    163
  • Poll closed .
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I think it's going to be close and come down to a few hundred thousand votes in the battleground states. You have disgruntled voters on both sides who will vote 3rd party as a protest.
Logically Trump shouldn't have a chance. He attracts almost no women, almost no young people, very few minorities, and even some Republicans hate him. He cannot form a viable coalition of voters to propel him to victory.

But I will see how things are once the debates happen. If it's still like that, and Trump is still appealing mostly to his base, there's no way he can win. He'll struggle to get above the 40% mark. If he's gained ground, anything can happen.

I don't think this will be like 1992 where Gary Johnson will get 18% and decide this election like Perot.
 
I supported Bernie Sanders in the primary because I looked at his policies, and wanted what he was offering. How could he get there? That is a question about governing, and forces beyond anyone's control--what the other party's leadership will allow to happen. I didn't just talk about it on Facebook, I made a 35-dollar donation to his campaign. People called for a "revolution," and I rolled my eyes. It's empty rhetoric for a man with a proven track-record in Congress, been there since 1990, and is 74-years-old.

The fact is, we have stared down these problems before--Theodore Roosevelt and his breaking up of big oil, monopoly laws put in-place, mirrors Sanders plans to break up the big banks. His investments in the American people, nothing not done outside of the New Deal under Franklin Delano Roosevelt. His idea to build a 21st-century infrastructure in the United States--bullet trains and a smart electric grid, green technology and sustainable roads--no different than Eisenhower building the Interstate system. His ideas to take care of our veterans when they come home from war, no different than the GI Bill. His ideas to curb carbon emissions to 80% of 1990 levels by the end of his first term, no different than facing down other existential threats to the United States--Fascism in Europe, the British in the War of 1812. His ideas to establish a single-payer health insurance system, no different than what has been done across Europe and Canada, no different than what Barack Obama set out to do in 2009. His ideas to end our uneven justice system, no different than forcing the equal protection under the law of the Civil Rights Act, the Voting Rights Act, and so on. His ideas to raise taxes, the tax code restored to sanity, and yes, I was willing to pay higher taxes for all we could accomplish.

I never stopped listening to Hillary Clinton. I kept up with her updates, her media spots, the media's coverage of her. In another year, if Bernie wasn't running, a man I have respected for at least 10 years before this campaign, I would've supported her. The fact is, I have great respect for her and what she has accomplished. And although his campaign may have failed, his ideas have not. The party most likely to gain the office and get done what that statesman wanted to do, is still Hillary Clinton. I supported her in 2008, over Barack Obama, because I wanted someone who was more experienced than a 1-term, not even fulfilled, Senator. I wanted HIM to run in 2016, not the other way around.

Now, I know that we like to have our philosophical debates. We like to talk about rugged individualism, man made by himself, versus any government spending, that isn't rewarding a business, being Communism. I know we like to wax poetically about how people don't need the government controlling healthcare. I know we'd like to believe that we all did it through hard-work, and determination, and that we are perfect, never needing a leg up into prosperity, and when we don't get it, well, it must be because of affirmative action or some social safety net program someone created somewhere that left behind the majority of Americans. I get it. It's fun to think in abstractions.

But politics isn't a game. It's not a philosophy. Governing is about affecting people's lives, for the better, or the worse. When you strip transportation subsidies out of the Farm bill, people go without transportation, or local communities raise taxes. That's what happened to me in my community. When you have a stimulus package aimed at putting more money into the pocket of poor and working people, you are asked to spend it, as I did, with the ten dollars a month more I received in food stamps a month because of the Recovery Act. Up and down the board, when you make a decision, you are affecting people's lives. What they can go to jail for, what they are allowed to say in the public square, what they can do with their time and money, if a product is safe or not, if the environment remains protected, or not. If they have access to education, or not. This is not a vanity exercise. It's important because self-government requires that people participate, be informed as much as you can, and learn the lessons of history.

So, put down the labels every time you go to the polls. It truly is about what kind of country you want for you, your neighbor, your children, their children, and understanding the greatness of our country--that we respect each others' lives, that from a barn-raising 250 years ago, to the way we treat our fellow humans on the internet, we are only as strong as our community will allow, and resolve, that, no matter the election results, we may complain, we may complain loudly, but we allow a peaceful transfer of power--it's not about the size of our wealth or our military. It's about ideas and innovation, people working together for a shared prosperity.

Those are my thoughts on this election. I will be voting for Hillary Clinton, for better, or for worse. I do not want to see Donald Trump in that office because I don't think he's going to lead us to a better tomorrow. Jill Stein denies science. Gary Johnson promises the world. The only other choice is to not vote in this election, and that's just ceding power to whomever does vote. It's denying the sacrifices, the ingenuity to set up the government and keeping it functioning, borne of previous generations. So, no, I will not be voting for my favorite candidate, but I am voting for the best available. And that is all I can hope for--that she will do the most good in that office.
 
I like Bernie Sanders. He's a good man. And if he'd been the nominee, I would've voted for him enthusiastically and not just because he's NOT Trump.

But the problem with him is that with all he promised, how the heck would he successfully govern? Everything Obama tried to do was loudly and cantankerously opposed and, in many cases, outright blocked by the Republicans in Congress. Could you imagine the opposition Bernie's policies would get? Good lord. They'd block everything he tried to do and act like it was the end of the world. Plus, "socialist" is still a dirty word in this country. As stupid as that is, people still equate it with the USSR and it would've bogged down Bernie's road to the election.

He should be proud of his platform, though, and that he got 20-some million votes. For an old guy that is openly socialist and pushing a progressive agenda, that's amazing.
 
I like Bernie Sanders. He's a good man. And if he'd been the nominee, I would've voted for him enthusiastically and not just because he's NOT Trump.

But the problem with him is that with all he promised, how the heck would he successfully govern? Everything Obama tried to do was loudly and cantankerously opposed and, in many cases, outright blocked by the Republicans in Congress. Could you imagine the opposition Bernie's policies would get? Good lord. They'd block everything he tried to do and act like it was the end of the world. Plus, "socialist" is still a dirty word in this country. As stupid as that is, people still equate it with the USSR and it would've bogged down Bernie's road to the election.

He should be proud of his platform, though, and that he got 20-some million votes. For an old guy that is openly socialist and pushing a progressive agenda, that's amazing.

I have had this argument many times. And the fact is, as you are voting for Sanders, you are also voting for Congressional candidates, 88% of which, are up for re-election. So, it would not be easy. People would protest him just being in office because of the label, socialist. But how many times can you dip into the tin-foil hat well, and have that work? Barack Obama was going to put us in FEMA camps. Barack Obama was going to bring Communism to America through ACORN. Barack Obama was supported, and ordered them to intimidate voters, by the New Black Panther Party. Americans are smarter than falling for the same shtick again. I think their pleas, especially since President Obama proved to be a good President, his popularity continues to soar as he leaves office, and the fact he accomplished what he did, it gives Bernie added ammunition that he's following Obama, and not George W. Bush. It is a better economy, people aren't as scared they will lose their job tomorrow. As long as Bernie supporters stayed mobilized (and they have been called an inch deep and a mile wide when I have had this talk before), then we would've brought about change. You'll see what I mean when the first woman takes the Oath. The same things will be said about her--she is not keeping America safe, she is Communist, she will raise taxes, she has a hidden political agenda, she's a Femi-Nazi--because they say the same thing about ALL Democrats, and she will get more done because of the hard work, the road paved by, Barack Obama.
 
How many times would they dip into the tinfoil hat well? As many times as they need to. Glenn Beck, Sean Hannity and Sarah Palin took the locks off the cells in the asylum in 2009/10, and the inmates got out. They won one midterm election, but their rhetoric has seeped into the Republican Party and the rise of Trump is actual proof that it has gotten out of control.

When Romney lost in 2012, after his entire campaign and voting bloc was living in a bubble of fantasy and ignoring all sorts of evidence that pointed to him losing for certain, I remember Republicans saying that they had some soul-searching to do. They had to re-evaluate their rhetoric, anti-Obama policies, they had to take a hard look at how the country was moving, etc. etc. Did any of that happen? No...they doubled-down. They dug in. They went even further right and appealed to even more extreme positions and stoked fear in their electorate even more. They found even more reasons to demonize the President for stuff he didn't even do. You will never get a Trump supporter to say that Obama has been a "good President" with "soaring popularity." You have Newt Gingrich saying that something is a fact if you feel it to be true (although I kind of get what he was trying to say, it's still stupid).

So they will milk the conspiracy angle as long as they have support among the electorate. If Trump loses badly in November, it might promote a shift. Maybe. If the election shows that extremist positions like his only have the support of ~40% of the country, maybe then we'll hear the death knell of the Tea Party and the monsters it wrought. If I look back at 2012, there was very little I agreed with Mitt Romney on, but compared to Trump, he looks like a beacon of sanity and good sense.
 
I'm predicting Hillary Clinton will win, enough people will feel Trump would be too dangerous even if they feel Clinton is neither very trustworthy nor empathetic (she's certainly more empathetic than Trump).
Trump has the potential to do well in the debates, primarily by arguing she would be more of the same of what hasn't worked and her own positions are quite extreme, plus that she hasn't created any private sector jobs, but she could, hopefully even more effectively, respond by citing his intolerance and lack of realism (and of course she'll continue to demonize his wealth which, like in the 2012 election, could be quite influential).
One factor I'm wondering about is, even with most Hispanics outraged at Trump's comments against illegal immigration, could the anti-Trump votes be even bigger than the anti-Romney reaction last time? On the other hand, if even Republican and conservative women dislike Trump that could be a big unusual advantage for Clinton.
 
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One factor I'm wondering about is, even with most Hispanics outraged at Trump's comments against illegal immigration, could the anti-Trump votes be even bigger than the anti-Romney reaction last time? On the other hand, if even Republican and conservative women dislike Trump that could be a big unusual advantage for Clinton.
This is the biggest reason why I am flabbergasted by the Trump supporters' predictions that the electoral map will be like 1984, everything red, Trump will sweep all before him, etc. It's madness. Where is this fantasy widespread coalition of voters coming from? He's behind in women and minorities and young people. He's made outrageously stupid, inflammatory statements about women, Hispanics, immigrants, minorities in general...and if Hillary's team has any sense, they will play ads that have this stuff on loop.

All Republican strategists know that they have to make up ground in the female vote to have any chance. It's part of the reason McCain picked Palin in 2008. It didn't work then, because Palin was a dunce and Obama was an unstoppable rockstar candidate. This time, they're running against a woman with a candidate that has made stupid comments about women. Oh, Trump will shift his positions like he repeatedly does on abortion and soften his rhetoric to seem more reasonable and electable as it gets closer to November, but I think the only female votes he will win are conservative women that already hate Hillary. Literally the only card his campaign can play to curry the female vote is to trot his family out and make him look like a family man who supports the success of his strong, independent daughter. But it won't work.

Unless Hillary has a really poor performance in the debates, she's got the female vote and the minority vote in the bag. Trump's path to victory rests on her messing up. Or....something comes out between now and November that torpedoes her candidacy or there's some sort of terror attack that gets people to vote Trump out of fear.
 
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Please, please, PLEASE let this be the case. I'm really terrified that Trump could win. I'm hoping with every fiber of my being that Clinton wins because the alternative would be an absolute nightmare. The way Trump supporters seem to believe in this fantasy of a glorious past, that we have to build walls, ban religions, push away refugees and insist on an insane degree of isolationism---it's fascism. There's no other word for it. All he needs is a mustache and Trump would be a fat, uneducated, orange Hitler. A large section of the population would gleefully turn the country into Nazi Germany. How does this not terrify people?
He's like a cartoon parody of a Right-Wing demagogue. I don't think he has much of a real chance in the general election, but he definitely illustrates how out of control the problem of political extremism is.
 
Well his belief that free trade is an unfair playing field, that the deals are unfair to us and we should withdraw from trade agreements if we can't renegotiate them is very bipartisan or even outside of the typical political spectrum rather than extreme right-wing. So is the idea that we bear too much of the costs and sacrifices in military alliances and operations.
It would place Hillary Clinton in an awkward position if she's forced to try to argue that all or most of our agreements are fair and mutually beneficial and we aren't bearing too much of the costs (or that even if we are we should still not threaten to withdraw).
 
He has plenty of resources. I'm sure he will do just fine. lol

You may laugh, but many on the Republican side who know how national campaigns work are not so sanguine. If he has "an incredible amount of financial backing" as you said, where is it and where is it going? Trump may be betting that free news coverage will be enough, but if not countered very soon the Clinton financial lead will give them a big advantage in advance media buys in swing states.

Of course if Trump is worth as much as he says he is, he could write a check and make up the difference right now. But as Pingfah said, his money might not be liquid enough. Or, as many have speculated, he is not worth as much as he says he is, and (gasp!) may not even be a billionaire. Many suspect that is one reason he is so reluctant to release his tax returns.

What's certain about Trump is that his main business -- which he does very successfully -- is selling his name (in case you have ever wondered why Michael Bloomberg doesn't put his name on steaks or Warren Buffett's on get-rich training courses). Very, very few of the properties that bear the name Trump are actually majority-owned by Donald Trump. He admitted in depositions for his unsuccessful defamation suit against a journalist who called out his inflation of his wealth that he is not always truthful about his net worth and bases it on his "feelings." That is a much less desirable foundation for campaign self-funding than actual money in the bank.

So Trump, who boasted about being incorruptible by special interests because of his great wealth, has quietly started asking for money, and changed his policy of loaning money to his campaign to donating it. Each side in the 2012 campaign spent over a billion. How having "plenty of resources" on the Trump side will stack up in that kind of race is still an open question. The next FEC filings will be very interesting.
 
in my experience most nations have an unfortunate talent to elect the worst possible candidate. I fear bad fate will trump again...
 
in my experience most nations have an unfortunate talent to elect the worst possible candidate. I fear bad fate will trump again...

I still believe in a place called "Hope." The Audacity of Hope. Take heart, America is not your usual country. How many millions voted for Bernie Sanders? How many millions voted for Hillary Clinton? Republicans are starting to listen to the "Hope" of the Democratic Party, claiming we are stealing Reagan. It may be the optimist in me, but I think this country is about to elect Hillary Clinton.
 
Maybe. It's strange. Trump was the onl;y person in the GOP that didn't want to start a new Cold War with Russia. It actually bothers me that neo-Cons actually may vote for Hillary.

Trump--for all his warts--is what fly-over country looks like when it just starts to move Left.
Sam Brownback ran his state into the ground: http://www.kansascity.com/opinion/opn-columns-blogs/yael-t-abouhalkah/article92429397.html

His own party sees his voodoo economics are failing. And yet I want to like Sam. I remember him as actually being sympathetic to Robert Zubrin--who lamented how NASA was just doing laps in LEO.
http://www.marsblog.net/archives/000832.html

Tom Delay was a friend to NASA--and yet Mondale wanted to kill NASA. Democrats are better to ecologists--but Republicans a bit better to engineers.

*******************************************************************

Dear Hillary,

I hope that you don't hold it against NASA that they rejected you:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2015/11/30/hillary-clintons-often-told-story-that-nasa-rejected-her-childhood-dream-of-becoming-a-female-astronaut/

That was true for a lot of institutions that serve folks better today.

I suspect folks have already contacted you to have Lori Garver as the new NASA Chief Admin.
She hates SLS--and I'm sure folks tell you it is an Alabama project.
Actually it is making jobs for California: http://www.latimes.com/science/space/la-me-space-builder-20160513-story.html

And in Katrina ravaged New Orleans: http://cosmoquest.org/forum/showthr...nk-for-America%92s-Moon-Mars-Rocket-%96-Fligh

Please--have .Carolyn Porco be the new NASA Chief.

http://www.wired.com/2008/09/sl-porco/
http://io9.gizmodo.com/more-people-need-to-know-about-carolyn-porco-1565667379

She was treated in a very ugly way by folks who want to kill SLS:

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=27703.msg849813#msg849813

She is pro-Science and pro NASA/gov't.

The folks who want to kill SLS hate NASA and Gov't--and want private industry only>

I want more women in space, and in the military:

http://www.trekbbs.com/threads/an-open-letter-to-carolyn-porco-how-more-women-in-mil-space-can-advan.276535/

Please do support NASA and SLS.

http://www.boeing.com/assets/pdf/defense-space/space/sls/docs/sls_mission_booklet_jan_2014.pdf
http://www.space.com/18275-nasa-sls-rocket-potential-missions.html

I can even see space-based solar power demonstrators in the future, for green energy :

http://energy.gov/articles/space-based-solar-power
 
I dislike both so much that I'm literally tempted to vote for the "moldering corpse of Teddy Roosevelt" instead...
 
If the question posed by the OP is "Who is going to win the election in November?" (as opposed to who do you want ...) then the answer likely is Trump.

Neither of the two principal candidates fill me with glee.

Clinton (in all honesty) isn't a skilled orator, while Trump comes fully alive when you put a microphone in front of him.

He's going to eat her alive during the debates.
 
Some things to consider about Trump though...

  • He has an incredible amount of financial backing.
  • He has recognition as a celebrity.
The first will obviously allow him to hammer away with advertising. The difference is razor thin right now, but the candidate with more money may be able to do more to chip away between now and election time.

The second I think goes a long way in drawing the modern day voter. Trump, despite his faults, has an extremely loyal base of voters. If you look at Obama's campaign in 2008, he had more financial backing than any prior candidate for President, and he had reached celebrity status with voters.
You don't think Hillary is famous enough?
I would say she is as big as a celebrity as Trump, if not more...
 
You don't think Hillary is famous enough?
I would say she is as big as a celebrity as Trump, if not more...
She certainly is famous, but I wouldn't concede that she is more famous. Trump drew more voters in the Republican primaries than ever before. He has drawn people to the Republican party who were not there before. Hillary cannot say that about the Democratic party.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/06/trump-trumps-wins-historic-race-record-fashion/
 
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