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When Do You Think the Recession Will End?

Serious answer: it started right at the end of Q4 2007 (though official figures would say Q3 2008) and is a pretty big recession, so 18-24 months seems about right. That would pitch us to about H1 2010.

However, people don't generally perceive the end of the recession for about another year after that, so people won't really FEEL like the economy is doing well until about Q3 2011 I'm guessing, despite the fact the upturn will come much sooner.
Well THAT SUCKS, considering the world is supposed to end in Q1 of 2012.

Xmas 2011 will be one hell of a party though. :lol:

Well that would be the lagging jobs factor. Although I think Xmas next year will see some up tick.

Right now everyone is saving every dollar they get their hands on. Until that stops nothing is going to change.
 
Well THAT SUCKS, considering the world is supposed to end in Q1 of 2012.

Xmas 2011 will be one hell of a party though. :lol:

Well that would be the lagging jobs factor. Although I think Xmas next year will see some up tick.

Right now everyone is saving every dollar they get their hands on. Until that stops nothing is going to change.

Not Mrs.Q2, she's spending like a drunken sailor. New bedroom set, new boxspring & mattress, new beding, drapes, rug, the works ...... well, at least it's not more shoes....

Q2
 
To be honest we done our part on the spending as well. We had a preplanned yard project and some kitchen work done.

I have to say it's been really tough writing those checks at the moment, but I know in the macro sense it's good to spread it around.
 
To be honest we done our part on the spending as well. We had a preplanned yard project and some kitchen work done.

I have to say it's been really tough writing those checks at the moment, but I know in the macro sense it's good to spread it around.
That's the problem. In a recession, people pull back on their spending, which is the time they shouldn't. On the same token, it's a great time to get deals on goods and services.
 
To be honest we done our part on the spending as well. We had a preplanned yard project and some kitchen work done.

I have to say it's been really tough writing those checks at the moment, but I know in the macro sense it's good to spread it around.
That's the problem. In a recession, people pull back on their spending, which is the time they shouldn't. On the same token, it's a great time to get deals on goods and services.

Don't forget on stocks, too! Some mutual fund managers and investors will eventually make out like bandits, what with the across-the-board drop in many stock prices -- that's the time to buy, baby! -- RR
 
The news agencies are saying around mid-2010 we'll see some restoration of what our economy once was; however, the Business Department of my university is doing a research study on the situation. While we're not a big name school most of the research they've been doing suggests at least mid 2012 before we see growth (the person leading the study is a former professor at the Wharton School of Business who holds a Doctorate in International Economics).
 
The news agencies are saying around mid-2010 we'll see some restoration of what our economy once was; however, the Business Department of my university is doing a research study on the situation. While we're not a big name school most of the research they've been doing suggests at least mid 2012 before we see growth (the person leading the study is a former professor at the Wharton School of Business who holds a Doctorate in International Economics).
*whistles* And I bet he's a BMF as well.
 
You know, the problem is that if the recession lasts as long as middle of 2010, seems like to me you are gonna see it get worse rather than better. People will have run out of unemployment insurance and basically will be screwed, unless they have a pretty big nest egg with which to pay the mortgage, utilities and put food on the table without any further unemployment insurance help.

Alot of otherwise hardworking families will end up homeless...or close. I know that alot of upper-middle class families are the ones losing houses right now....can't pay the mortgage after one or both spouses lost their jobs.

And the more that happens, the worse it will get. Because when you have middle class homeless people walking around, it scares the shit out of everyone else.
 
You know, on a related note, if you listen to the GOP's objections to the stimulus package, it sounds amazingly like what FDR's opponents said about the New Deal. We know how that turned out -- as per usual, the GOP is standing in the way of progress. Nice job, guys. -- RR
 
Alot of otherwise hardworking families will end up homeless...or close. I know that alot of upper-middle class families are the ones losing houses right now....can't pay the mortgage after one or both spouses lost their jobs.

And the more that happens, the worse it will get. Because when you have middle class homeless people walking around, it scares the shit out of everyone else.

That is where far right lolbertarianism gets you...
 
You know, the problem is that if the recession lasts as long as middle of 2010, seems like to me you are gonna see it get worse rather than better. People will have run out of unemployment insurance and basically will be screwed, unless they have a pretty big nest egg with which to pay the mortgage, utilities and put food on the table without any further unemployment insurance help.

Alot of otherwise hardworking families will end up homeless...or close. I know that alot of upper-middle class families are the ones losing houses right now....can't pay the mortgage after one or both spouses lost their jobs.

And the more that happens, the worse it will get. Because when you have middle class homeless people walking around, it scares the shit out of everyone else.
Well combined with the extension in the stimulus package most people will have about 6 to 7 or more of unemployment.

What you'll see is a lot of, otherwise us to being highly paid, people taking two or three part time lower pay jobs to see them through. It's been going that way for a while already, but the days of people being picky and holding out for the big paycheck are over for a while. It's going to be a employers market for a couple of years, at least, which is going to drive pay and benefits down across the board.
 
You know, the problem is that if the recession lasts as long as middle of 2010, seems like to me you are gonna see it get worse rather than better. People will have run out of unemployment insurance and basically will be screwed, unless they have a pretty big nest egg with which to pay the mortgage, utilities and put food on the table without any further unemployment insurance help.

Alot of otherwise hardworking families will end up homeless...or close. I know that alot of upper-middle class families are the ones losing houses right now....can't pay the mortgage after one or both spouses lost their jobs.

And the more that happens, the worse it will get. Because when you have middle class homeless people walking around, it scares the shit out of everyone else.
Well combined with the extension in the stimulus package most people will have about 6 to 7 or more of unemployment.

What you'll see is a lot of, otherwise us to being highly paid, people taking two or three part time lower pay jobs to see them through. It's been going that way for a while already, but the days of people being picky and holding out for the big paycheck are over for a while. It's going to be a employers market for a couple of years, at least, which is going to drive pay and benefits down across the board.

Unfortunately, I must agree with you. I would also point out that this employers' market has been in effect since the early 21st century, what I've called "The Revenge of the Employers." It's a reversal of the employees job market of the 1990s, so that now, the bosses are clawing back all the gains employees made in the previous decade they were loathe to give, like higher pay and benefits. Disgusting. -- RR
 
One thing I'll be surprised to see survive the recession, if it does, will be the concept/practice of "Hire and Fire at will". If things really tank, and I mean harder than they're tanking right now, I can see a push for a federal "Right to work" labor law that'll make it harder for employers to cull employees for little to no cause.
 
One thing I'll be surprised to see survive the recession, if it does, will be the concept/practice of "Hire and Fire at will". If things really tank, and I mean harder than they're tanking right now, I can see a push for a federal "Right to work" labor law that'll make it harder for employers to cull employees for little to no cause.

Let's hope not. As an employee at will I like being able to leave if I want.

If something like that did pass we'll see more businesses pushing automation or fewer employees doing more work. There are enough challenges for businesses now. Throwing more on isn't going to help anyone. The government is no our mommy and daddy.
 
One thing I'll be surprised to see survive the recession, if it does, will be the concept/practice of "Hire and Fire at will". If things really tank, and I mean harder than they're tanking right now, I can see a push for a federal "Right to work" labor law that'll make it harder for employers to cull employees for little to no cause.
I sure wouldn't hire someone under those conditions and if such a bill came up I'd probably lay as many off as possible before it passed.
 
One thing I'll be surprised to see survive the recession, if it does, will be the concept/practice of "Hire and Fire at will". If things really tank, and I mean harder than they're tanking right now, I can see a push for a federal "Right to work" labor law that'll make it harder for employers to cull employees for little to no cause.

I hope it doesn't come to that, although the thought of it does warm the cockles of my heart. Hopefully, some happy medium between hire at will and right to work will be worked out. -- RR
 
You know, on a related note, if you listen to the GOP's objections to the stimulus package, it sounds amazingly like what FDR's opponents said about the New Deal. We know how that turned out -- as per usual, the GOP is standing in the way of progress. Nice job, guys. -- RR
Cornell University completed a study which showed the FDR's policies prolonged the Depression by seven years. I believe it was one of his Treasury Secretaries who stated that "no matter how much we spend, nothing has changed". So, you would be wise to learn that FDR's policies DID NOT save the US, as most left leaning types would like us to believe.
 
Cornell University completed a study which showed the FDR's policies prolonged the Depression by seven years.
off_5006_03.jpg

Ah, Cornell.....

One study vs. how many decades of different, non-partisan studies saying it worked?
 
Cornell University completed a study which showed the FDR's policies prolonged the Depression by seven years.
off_5006_03.jpg

Ah, Cornell.....

One study vs. how many decades of different, non-partisan studies saying it worked?
Really, it worked? Cornell's is only one of many I've seen that stated it didn't. Want to dig deeper? We were at war in Vietnam when Lyndon Johnson said, "We can have guns and butter" and he launched his "Great Society" policy along with the "War on Poverty". BOTH FAILED.
 
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