So it would be interesting if the events of Picard have a ramification with Discovery S3 despite being over 800 years apart.
AFAIK, the producers (of both shows) have said that DSC season 3 will have nothing to do with anything in PIC. (And it is definitely on record that whatever happens in PIC, the Federation is not being portrayed as evil.) So it's not like PIC is setting things up for the fall of the Federation. However that happens, DSC will be the only show which explores or even mentions it.