TransporterBeam
Lieutenant Commander
What will replace DVDs one day ? After Blu ray takes over and 10 years goes by.
What will upstage DVDs ?
- Thread starter TransporterBeam
- Start date
Downloading.
Blu Ray will never take over.
Blu Ray take up will increase but not to the level of DVD, and as available bandwidth increases downloads will take over as the primary form of distributing movies and TV.
I would love to agree with you but Sony see things differently: they expect to take over 50% of the market by the end of the year. I find them to be quite optimistic. Must be their victory against HD-DVD.
Some years ago, they said HD formats were intended to movie fans and high-end market. The DVD as it is, was supposed to go on (and keep the bigger share).
If it's going to be something physical rather than downloading, etc., so I can record in one room with satellite broadcast and watch in another room, then IC cards that you slip into a slot, so I don't have to deal with opening and closing trays and carefully handling discs, etc.
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Probably flash storage, made for video, capacities are ever increasing and prices are always falling. I think a solid state piece of memory like that is the future, instead of a spinning disk.
Heck, 32 GB flash memory already exists - http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16820211244 Albeit expensive, no one is gonna buy one with a movie on it for that much. But in 10 years? Maybe they will be like $20 for that much space, or maybe even more space for cheaper.
Heck, 32 GB flash memory already exists - http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16820211244 Albeit expensive, no one is gonna buy one with a movie on it for that much. But in 10 years? Maybe they will be like $20 for that much space, or maybe even more space for cheaper.
The problem with downloading is that you need space to put all you HD content. Therefore one will always need a physical storage system, and a cheap one at that. My money is also on solid state too, giving it a few generations for speed, price, and especially storage space.
Downloading onto what? Our computers? Our computers that aren't hooked up to our big screen TVs and 5.1 speaker sound systems? It's true that me and many of the other young people I know are just fine with using our computers to watch DVDs. However, the parents of many of those same people have really nice TVs that have no way of playing downloaded content. Of course boxes like the Apple TV would rectify that, but people have been predicting those would see widespread acceptance for nearly a decade (and it still hasn't happened). I just don't see downloads being viable in the near future.
You are referring to the market for DVDs and BDs, right? Considering nowhere near 50% of the market will have HDTVs by the end of the year and an even smaller percentage give a damn about BD, I'd like some of what Sony's smoking.
G
Garrovick
Guest
Some sort of flash memory data storage device in the near future. People will still be need to purchase single items on a single device.
And for my personal opinion, Bu-Ray is a DVD. As in a round flat shiny on one side disk.
And for my personal opinion, Bu-Ray is a DVD. As in a round flat shiny on one side disk.
True enough, but i think you'll see HDTV's coming with built in HCSD card readers the can play HD or SD movies out of the slot. A few TV's have this already built in for pics on screen. Not far of a jump to that.. Heck my 2and a half year old 42"samsung has a usb reader built in for pics.
Maybe a G4 Tivo with HCSD read/writer built in for transfers.
My Computer is
It is not actually all that difficult - most LCD TVs will happily take a D-Sub input, and graphics cards can now be had with an HDMI output, allowing you to watch HD content via HDMI on your tV, albeit with horrific DRM restrictions.
As the 5.1 - that has been possible for years with a lead from your SP-DIF to your surround amp - peasy.
I agree, Sony are being optimistic at 50% - unless of course they are simply referring to player sales, which could quite easily run to that level this year when you factor in the PS3.
For MEDIA sales, the actual discs I would be amazed if they top 10%
Yes. And I'd love to have some too
You are referring to the market for DVDs and BDs, right? Considering nowhere near 50% of the market will have HDTVs by the end of the year and an even smaller percentage give a damn about BD, I'd like some of what Sony's smoking.
I also agree. I think Sony is being VERY optimistic at 50%. However, I also if anyone could get it done they could..
Think of it this way, BD was a format Sony couldn't/wouldn't lose.. After Beta vs. VHS back in the day after that bad taste in there mouth. BD was something they HAD to win at all costs.. Think about the "deals" with Target.. Paying Monster amounts on money to get BD endcaps. We're talking millions for them.
Adding to that I'm not sure Sony will be the power house there once were. Take a look at Dig Cameras. There was a time when all you bought was Sony. Not so much anymore. In part to them making you use memsticks duo's.. Pissing off all those who had two gen ago Sony Cams that used full sized mem sticks.. Hey guess what with that new camera you need all new sticks... Shit, even Fuji and Olympus wised up and starting putting HCSD slots in most of there cameras.
Part of me gets the feeling Sony is going ah-la Kodak.. Slowly fading away.. Shit for those of you in the know think of there TV line. 5-10 years ago when it came to tubes if wanted top on the line you went to Sony and maybe a few others.. Now a days? Now don't get me wrong, Sony has some nice sets.. But, better then a Aquas, a Sammy, or a Pan. Nowadays Sony is riding the name game.. Well, shit like always..
just my .02 worth. I could be right on the mark or 1000miles away.
proboby something like data crystals.
I'm thinking the same thing. Up through today, all storage has been "surface area" based, starting with punch cards, tapes, discs, etc. Flash drives are a slight aberration from this, but not by much, and are easily destroyed by EMP just as magnetic media is. We definitely need to start thinking three-dimensionally, with regard to "volume". IBM has been experimenting for almost 10 years with data-crystal like "cubes", which are being "etched" by intersecting blue lasers. They call it "Holographic Data Storage", able to store terabytes of information per block. You could have every single hi-definition second of every single Star Trek episode, movie and fan-film ever made all on one cube.
Now THAT is the future.
I don't think bluray will be such a big hit.
vhs-> dvd was a big step. high quality, longer life, smaller size.
dvd->bluray is not so great. bit better quality. same life. same size.
Most people wouldn't feel any motivation to upgrade their players.
I don't think discs will go away. We all like portable media for archiving and sharing.
But will it remain optical? That depends how high the laser frequency can go before it starts damaging the substrate. UV lasers would affect the polycarbonate. xray lasers? sound expensive and dangerous!
Still I expect cd sized optical media to get up to 1 terabyte eventually. But that'd be its limit imho, which isn't worth so much ;-)
I say we call it purple-ray. Who's with me??
Jadzia
My Computer is
It is not actually all that difficult - most LCD TVs will happily take a D-Sub input, and graphics cards can now be had with an HDMI output, allowing you to watch HD content via HDMI on your tV, albeit with horrific DRM restrictions.
As the 5.1 - that has been possible for years with a lead from your SP-DIF to your surround amp - peasy.
What you're downloading into isn't actually the problem. Hard drives are dirt cheap and getting cheaper, making a set top box that the average consumer can use isn't all that hard.
What is hard is the bandwidth and the network capactiy. Check out what's going on in the UK with iPlayer, the BBC and the UK ISP's to get a preview of what will happen when companies try to move to digital distribution as a primary distribution channel. It won't be pretty because the ISP's are going to fight it tooth and nail!
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