The observation of Sela's personal history having elements of a fairy tale is probably very close to the truth. We have only her testimony to go on, really (Guinan's information is somewhat third-party).
I find myself unable to agree. Guinan had been established throughout the series as a figure of wisdom, authority and reliability (e.g. "Q Who", "Yesterday's Enterprise", "Booby Trap"). To suddenly change this premise would have begged for explanation ("Why? What's the point?") and Ron Moore could have just as easily made her say "I'm responsible for the whole situation" had he wanted to suggest that Guinan was referring to events in "Yesterday's Enterprise" and not to events in yet another (unseen) parallel universe.

Unfortunately, the "Redemption" audio commentary on the single, feature length Blu-ray sheds no light on the issue. Ron Moore and the Okudas talk exclusively (and correctly, no doubt) about the plot hole that Guinan is blaming "our" Picard for something he couldn't possibly remember.

Troi senses that Sela genuinely believes she is the daughter of Tasha Yar. This is hardly revelationary, since Romulan torturers are experts in their field and can make a person believe anything (see TNG's The Mind's Eye). Did Sela really get kidnapped by her mother aged 4, or is this just what she's been conditioned to believe? What were the extent of the "interrogations" that Tasha and the crew of the E-C underwent after their capture and what physical state were they in afterwards?
Denise Crosby's original proposal had been that Tasha Yar's daughter had been the offspring of her and Richard Castillo.
The producers rejected that and instead went for the Sela Story. The aforementioned audio commentary is also rather clear that Sela's account is genuine and no ruse or deception, so I can't see a good reason why to double-guess her statements.
On the contrary, I think suggesting otherwise would betray the impact and value of what I think to be one of TNG's greatest scenes: It's pretty obvious that Sela turned her mother in, and talking about it makes her unintendedly remember that she is the one responsible for loosing her mother. Expectedly, she suddenly feels the need to justify Tasha's punishment / execution in front of Picard, which is essentially her excuse for what she had done to her mother.

In addition, I think we saw Denise Crosby delivering a peak performance based on personal experience. Earlier that year her (biological) father had committed suicide, so I think some of the anger and frustration in her performance was uncomfortably real and not just mere acting.
According to Sela's statement the crew of the Enterprise-C (which one?

I think Tasha would have shared the fate of the others, there was no hint that someone noticed she had special knowledge of the future, which would have rather secured her a permanent detention cell than a Romulan firing squad or else.
Bob