I don't really see the mystery in all this. Note that the events of the movie really depend on split-second (or at least split-hour) timing in order for Nero's plan to work out - which is not a problem or a shortcoming, but merely indication that Nero had a pretty good plan!
Let's recap the established facts: at 2200 hours, Starfleet detects a lightning storm in space, and "soon thereafter", Vulcan sends a distress call about seismic disturbances. At 2300 hours, Uhura hears of a confrontation between one Romulan ship and 47 Klingon ones that ends badly for the latter. This does not become public knowledge, but it does cause reactions, among these Uhura getting told to go home at once. Some time later, at San Francisco sunrise or so, the panel judging Kirk gets a message of unknown content, and Starfleet launches all the ships remaining on Earth to sort out the Vulcan troubles, using cadets to crew the ships. Yet it is only after this that Nero is shown activating his big drill that supposedly causes the seismic troubles on Vulcan!
So what must have happened is that Nero sent a false message regarding Vulcan at first - that's information warfare 101, and something a man from the future would be eminently capable of, even though he is a civilian operating a civilian vessel (after all, information technology would keep on evolving, even for civilians, and would be a formidable weapon against older IT). And if he can do that, he can safely be assumed to be capable of also sending a false message regarding Klingon losses. So the timeline likely actually runs like this:
- 2200 hours: Spock arrives from the future in the "lightning storm", just like Nero did those 25 years prior. Nero captures the old Vulcan and gets red matter for his revenge plan.
- 2300 hours: Nero fakes unrest in Klingon space, massive enough in scale to send most of Starfleet out to respond. He probably doesn't really fight anybody, as he doesn't want to risk his ship or his life.
- some time later: Nero ups the ante by faking natural disaster on Vulcan, sending the rest of Starfleet scurrying towards that planet with false assumptions about what they will be facing. He must be jamming Vulcan's genuine transmissions already, and thus is probably already engaging Vulcan defenses in combat. Since he's twice shown capturing and interrogating key personnel to defeat his opponent, this is probably how he deals with Vulcan, too; and his big drill is a powerful jammer no matter where it is aimed.
- With all elements of the disinformation campaign active, Nero now starts drilling into Vulcan, sending Amanda to the balcony to ogle at the mighty drill beam.
- Starfleet task force arrives at Vulcan and is lost because it doesn't expect combat. The hero ship would be lost despite expecting combat, but Nero notices that it is the ship carrying young Spock, and pauses, leading to his eventual total ruination.
That's very little speculation on top of lots of intriguing onscreen fact. Starfleet would surely have to respond big time to unrest in Klingon space but near UFP holdings; Nero would have selected the make-believe location to put maximum distance between the responding forces and Vulcan/Earth. And torturing prisoners for information and then wielding that as a weapon is Nero's well-established modus operandi (and being an obsessed civilian, he's unlikely to vary his tactical methods much).
What the model doesn't quite explain is how Nero knows that young Spock is aboard a starship with the name Enterprise. But the movie as filmed does not have Nero jailed for 25 years; it therefore seems likely Nero spends those 25 years honing his plan and obtaining information (that's his gig, remember?), and learning about young Spock in his obsession of learning about the Spock who cost him his homeworld.
Finally, let's note that Nero has a slow spacecraft: Kirk's wounded starship easily overtakes the mining rig on the Vulcan-to-Earth trip despite making a Spock-commanded detour towards Laurentius. So Nero really couldn't do the "have a battle that lures Starfleet to place X and then sail to Vulcan" thing because Starfleet could outrun him. But faking unrest at very distant X while already being close to Vulcan is certainly within his means! And since Spock emerges from the future "at the Neutral Zone", Nero at 2200 hours is at the Neutral Zone, which plausibly is close to Vulcan (see e.g. TNG "Unification"), and at 2300 hours can put the rest of his plan to action.
Timo Saloniemi
