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What if it BOMBS

I wouldn't be suprised if it bombs. I've told people at work and school that a new Star Trek film was coming out and everyone pretty much rolled their eyes or made negative comments.
You hang with the wrong crowd. So far most non ST people I talk to are unaware that "Nemesis" and ENT were considered "bombs", and they are curious that TOS is finally being remade with a new cast. Shatner's public whining has also made them curious.
 
If it's got enough explosions, the foreign box office will make it a hit. Hey, it even worked for that last Riddick movie. It's almost impossible for Hollywood blockbuster type movies to "fail" anymore, financially speaking.

Exactly. A lot of things changed as of "Batman" (1989), which had supposedly already paid for itself before the gala premiere night, thanks to the lucrative licensing deals on tie-ins, spin-offs, international release schedules, etc.
 
^
Anyone I've mentioned the film to have rolled their eyes as well; so the attitude isn't that confined.

If it's got enough explosions, the foreign box office will make it a hit. Hey, it even worked for that last Riddick movie. It's almost impossible for Hollywood blockbuster type movies to "fail" anymore, financially speaking.
The correct term that applies here is "international" rather than "foreign."
In this context, what's the difference?

But, I wonder? How will this film be marketed to those countries where Star Trek is not a popcultural icon, and barely known or understood by the populace at large?
Hypothetically, as another big blockbuster sci-fi action movie. I don't know, I live in a country where the franchise is pretty well known.
 
^^^

Well, there are other posters here besides residents of the United States.
Including myself. But, as Temis is American (presumably), the foreign box office and the international box office are the same for her. This would also be true from the perspective of those making, funding and marketing the new Star Trek feature.
 
I'd say the announcement of Trek XII or any other indication from Paramount that they're happy with the take is the only sign that matters. North American box office is only 40-ish% of first year film revenues these days. I figure a $50 million opening weekend (Thu-Sun) and a $120-140,000,000 domestic box office + another $150,000,000 overseas and DVD sales ought to do it. I think expecting Transformers or Spider Man revenues is a bit lofty, though not impossible if it gets good word of mouth, but it doesn't need to do that kind of business to make enough money to warrant another.


It's interesting that you mention Transformers and how Trek XI would be lucky to do the numbers it did. I remember when the Transformers teaser trailer came out (the mars rover one) and the people in the theatre I was in all laughed and/or groaned when the name Transformers appeared on the screen. From that reaction I believed that people wouldn't be interested and the movie would fail, but that was obviously not the case. And that was a movie based on toys and a cheap cartoon from the 80's, not something with a 40 year history and hours of content already out there. Now when I saw Cloverfield and the Trek Teaser came on the whole theatre was practically buzzing with excitement.

So I really can't guess how this movie will do. :D Audiences continue to confound me.

But regardless of if this movie bombs financially I am pretty sure that it will be one of my top 5 favorite Trek films, just from knowing the past work of those involved. That will be more than I have hoped for since DS9 ended and this project was announced.
 
Well, the one big bomb movie that might be similar is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Final_Fantasy:_The_Spirits_Within

Which bombed at the BO despite being connected to a popular series and getting fair reviews. What happened afterwords was the the Final Fantasy series returned to being just games -- but Squaresoft lost $100 million and was forced to merge with Enix to remain financially stable.

Paramount isn't likely to lose enough money on one movie to be in any danger of folding.

But the rest of this seems reasonable -- a return to TV, or possibly selling the liscence. Who would buy is anybody's guess.
 
Well, the one big bomb movie that might be similar is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Final_Fantasy:_The_Spirits_Within

Which bombed at the BO despite being connected to a popular series and getting fair reviews.

I don't think that's a fair comparison. We're talking about a CGI animated film based on a Japanese videogame. And it was 'photorealistic' CGI animation, which I think is only belatedly becoming accepted with films like Beowulf. Filmgoing wise this combination is arguably as much of a niche audience as anime. And The Spirits Within didn't recieve generally fair reviews - it's got 44% on RottenTomatoes and a 49% at Metacritic. Also, I remember when the film was released it was trashed vigorously on this website and elsewhere.

I'm no box office guru, but I think this film has a much better chance of being a mainstream film, and of succeeding financially, than a Final Fantasy film.
What happened afterwords was the the Final Fantasy series returned to being just games -- but Squaresoft lost $100 million and was forced to merge with Enix to remain financially stable.

There have been subsequent Final Fantasy films, including Final Fantasy VII: Advent Children. Not being a fan of the games, and not having seen the movies, I have no idea why I know this offhand, but there it is.
 
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"Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within" doesn't seem to me to be in the same bracket as this movie or even most movies of its time. And I recall it being bashed by most reviewers myself.

Trying to use that movie as an example of why "Star Trek" might bomb is looking for obscure reasons to base that opinion on.

Sharr
 
I wouldn't be suprised if it bombs. I've told people at work and school that a new Star Trek film was coming out and everyone pretty much rolled their eyes or made negative comments.

I have had the exact opposite reactions. My family friends and coworkers all seem quite hyped about the new movie. As I am the resident Trekkie between them all I get asked questions nearly every week about the progress on Trek 11. Most of them watched up to TNG and then stopped, yet they are impatient about number 11. It says a lot. :)
 
If it bombs it bombs. If Star Trek ended for the forseeable future would it really be that bad? It had a 40 year run and the episodes are still out there. It's not like it will disappear forever.
 
Nah, it wouldn't be that bad. I'm very fond of Star Trek though, so it'd certainly be disappointing for many of us to see it come to an indefinite end, but of course in the grand scheme of things, it really doesn't matter that much. We'll move on to other shows and view our favorite old Trek episodes and movies on occasion.
 
"Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within" doesn't seem to me to be in the same bracket as this movie or even most movies of its time. And I recall it being bashed by most reviewers myself.

Trying to use that movie as an example of why "Star Trek" might bomb is looking for obscure reasons to base that opinion on.

Sharr

I don't think it's going to bomb, actually. This is a "what if" thread. My caomparison is how it *might* look if it did fail, which is why I brought up FF:TSW. That's kinda what I'm using as a base to guess what would happen if the movie is a massive bomb. I think it might cause the big P to either sell the rights outright or possibly not touch the franchise ever again. The best case, as with Square is that they stay out of theaters and do TV or direct to DVD.

My prediction in other threads is that Trek XI won't be a blockbuster in the US. I'm not sure that consitutes bombing, just not $300 domestic.
 
How is "bomb" defined?

I've heard of movies being "failures" even though they were profitable... simply because they didn't bring Mecca-pilgrimage style throngs for months.

For me, a "bomb" is a movie that brings in less money than it cost to make. (That includes the cost of distribution and the cost of "lost revenues" where a theater might have been able to show something that would have drawn in more people... )

If the movie ends up COSTING the people who made it money, or the people showing it money... then it's a bomb.

If it breaks even, including all associated costs, and brings in a small profit... it's not a bomb. It may be a disappointment, but not a bomb.

I don't think any Trek film has ever failed to recoupe its expenses, has one? So technically there has never been a "Trek bomb."

The real question is... what threshhold has PPC's management established for the movie? Do they expect it to bring in double its production/distribution/publicity cost, for example?

They've made this call... you can count on it. And if the film doesn't meet their pre-established target, they'll consider it a "lose" rather than a "win" even if it brings in a healthy profit.

It won't bomb. But if it doesn't meet expectations, PPC's leadership will put Trek onto the "back shelf" for the foreseeable future. We'll get comics, or novels... but no new films or TV shows will be greenlit during the period when this particular board and this particular management team are in power.

Trek will be "hibernating," not "dead."

Eventually, new leadership will come in. Someone will decide to do an inventory of assets and look at what's on the production schedule, and will remember that PPC has this particular piece of Intellectual Property which isn't being exploited... and will decide to start exploring how to exploit the IP.

How this could go would be pretty open... it could be fantastic or it could be like the "spoof nostalgia" films that were the rage for a few years... like what many of us feared... a "Star Trek" film with Ben Stiller as Spock and Owen Wilson as Kirk, MOCKING the original...

Or they could do something fantastic... but unrelated to the Trek we know. Or they could do contemporary "period kische" like the worst bits of TNG were (that show is far more "dated" in appearance than TOS is... you can look at it and just immediately know which year in the 1980s or 1990s that episode was shot in!).

They could do ANYTHING. But they won't do anything whatsoever until the current PPC leadership team has completely been replaced.

On the other hand... what if it meets, or EXCEEDS, studio expectations?

That's what we should be thinking about. Because, overall, the excitement level for this film seems to be greater than that for any prior Trek film since TWOK (deserved or not).

If the film is a success, will we see further films with this same crew? I don't believe that personally.

Will we see a new series? I think that's almost certain, though the specifics of that potential series are completely and totally open right now... could be a cartoon, could be a post-TNG-era show, could be a pre-TOS-era show. It almost certainly would not involve the actors from the film, however.

ANYWAY... that's what seems most likely to me. A successful (borderline "blockbuster") movie, followed by a new TV series involving different characters and situations but the same "feel" as the new film.
 
If the film is a success, will we see further films with this same crew? I don't believe that personally.

Cary, gotta to strongly disagree with you here. If the movie works to Paramounts expectations not only will we see another one we'll see many of the very same people on screen in this in the sequel - I base this in part on the fact the actors contracts as I think has been reported has them prepared to take the roles again should a sequel be made.

Yes I know Abrams said this is something of a "one shot" but I don't think he meant to imply there wouldn't ever be a follow-up, more like: Hey lets see how this goes its a complete story in and of it self lets worry about other movies when we cross that bridge.

It wouldn't make much sense for the studio to have to go out and take a whole new risk once they've re-established the brand in this form. Star Trek of this style will be what we'll be getting until whatever comes to pass and it needs to reinvent itself once more.

Sharr
 
If the film is a success, will we see further films with this same crew? I don't believe that personally.

Cary, gotta to strongly disagree with you here.

I as well. There have been some vague hints about leaving this film open for a sequel and sequel clauses in contracts and all that jazz. Star Trek is a franchise film, every bit as much as Casino Royale or Batman Begins, films which both have sequels coming out this year. Of course, the film has to be considered a success for a sequel to be made with this cast - only if it isn't would a sequel akin to another release this year, The Incredible Hulk, be made. There might be a shuffle of talent behind the camera, as there have been with other franchises, if it's a success, the cast stays.
 
If the film is a success, will we see further films with this same crew? I don't believe that personally.
Cary, gotta to strongly disagree with you here. If the movie works to Paramounts expectations not only will we see another one we'll see many of the very same people on screen in this in the sequel - I base this in part on the fact the actors contracts as I think has been reported has them prepared to take the roles again should a sequel be made.
It's certainly possible (though the only corroborating evidence is the reputed "extended contract" you mention). I'm just stating my own personal opinion.
Yes I know Abrams said this is something of a "one shot" but I don't think he meant to imply there wouldn't ever be a follow-up, more like: Hey lets see how this goes its a complete story in and of it self lets worry about other movies when we cross that bridge.
Well, I feel pretty confident that Abrams won't be involved in any sequels. He's looking to tell a particular story... and I fully expect he'll want to move on to another (unrelated) story for his next trick.

As for whether PPC brings in someone else to lead... or keeps one or two of the other "supreme court" to do follow ons... that's a more open question, and I'd personally be pretty excited by seeing Orci become a producer. ;)

Still, my feeling for what I'm saying is based more upon how I understand this story to be written... that is, it's filling in an unknown period where we ALREADY HAVE SEEN what comes next for these people.

That's the sort of set-up that, to me, means either "change everything so what we already know no longer counts" or "leave things the same as we know... and take away any possibility of growth or jeopardy."

That's why I think we won't see "the continuing adventures of New Kirk and New Spock." Because PPC's leadership will realize that they'd be putting themselves into a likely lose-lose situation.

I'm not claiming any particular "inside knowledge" on that count... just stating my own personal opinion, of course. But it just doesn't make sense, from my perspective, to put the franchise at risk that way. It makes a LOT more sense to establish some NEW characters in this film who can be spun off into a new show. Reuse the sets, the setting... but give us characters who we can LEARN about, who we can be SURPRISED by... who can live, or die, without us knowing in advance!
It wouldn't make much sense for the studio to have to go out and take a whole new risk once they've re-established the brand in this form. Star Trek of this style will be what we'll be getting until whatever comes to pass and it needs to reinvent itself once more.
Yeah, but I said nothing at all about "style." I said this CAST... I agree that it's very likely that they'd try to leverage some of the investment in this film into future projects.

But part of what you just said really bothers me. ANY FILM is a "risk" ... and "continuing the adventures of Kirk and Spock" is every bit as much of a creative risk as anything else.

Trying to "play it safe" is what got Berman and Co. into trouble. I, personally REALLY want the next film or series we see to involve taking SIGNIFICANT creative risks... just as this one is taking.

That's what leads to good storytelling, as far as I'm concerned.
I as well. There have been some vague hints about leaving this film open for a sequel and sequel clauses in contracts and all that jazz. Star Trek is a franchise film, every bit as much as Casino Royale or Batman Begins, films which both have sequels coming out this year. Of course, the film has to be considered a success for a sequel to be made with this cast - only if it isn't would a sequel akin to another release this year, The Incredible Hulk, be made. There might be a shuffle of talent behind the camera, as there have been with other franchises, if it's a success, the cast stays.
We'll see about that in a year or so... ;)

As far as I'm concerned, the Batman film is the second "real" Batman film... (gotta wonder how they're going to work around Heath Ledger's death... since the Joker will almost certainly NOT be killed in this film, based upon the nearly perfect attention to "comic canon" continuity by the production team for both of these films). But the audience (except for the niche comic-reading community) really isn't aware of the "real" Batman universe... most folks think "Biff-bam-thwap" or thing of some really bad, really weird Bondage-discipline movies from few years ago. So "Batman" isn't at risk of "overwriting" facts about the character that the average audience member already knows... nor is it at risk (due to the respect for canon being shown by the production team) of driving away the loyal fanbase.

"The Hulk" and "The Incredible Hulk" are actually better examples. I assume that if you've seen any info about the new Hulk movie, it pretty much ignores the first movie and is really pretty closely related to the old TV show (all the way down to the production design being based upon the TV show designs!). It's not a "reboot" as much as an "ignore the last movie and go back to what people LIKED approach. Much like Batman, but more "mainstream."

Again, guys... I'm not saying I think there won't be further movies. But I just think it's a much WORSE RISK to try to re-use the existing characters (putting 40 years of storytelling at-risk for no good reason) than to give us new, blank-slate characters set in the same universe (and the same timeframe... ie, leveraging sets, designs, costumes and props, but being giving the production team more STORYTELLING FLEXIBILITY).

I see that as being LESS RISK... you guys see it as being MORE RISK. As for how the decision-makers see it... none of us can really say.
 
I wonder if this movie can be made into a complete reboot? Lets face it, Star Trek as it is will never be erased. Just like our entertainment of old Batman or Bond movies did not diminish for what they are just because Batman Begins and Casino Royale came out. The Star Trek of the past has had a very successful run, Voyage and Enterprise not withstanding. The heaviness of canon will always deter story writers from writing meaningful stories whether they are in prequel form or sequel.

Even if it was made with a new crew, new cast whatever it will always be diminished by earlier canon. Voyager (the ship) literally was a magic ship that could heal from any wound. DS9 universe showed that even during battle a lot of things can be changed just because of the huge amount of tech available at their disposal. Enterprise (the show) made our ships too vulnerable against every major player in the galaxy yet they came off unscathed at the end.

Perhaps with Star Trek 11 we will see the return of Trek to its roots - fun, futuristic show where not all problems can be solved by a magic beam or self replicating nanobots. One can only hope. :)
 
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