What do you predict STID will make worldwide?

[ralph]

People were interested in ST09, because it was the first Star Trek movie since 2002 and JJ got it mostly right. It was the 'hot' movie for its time. This time?

I don't agree with this point of view.
who was more interested in star trek 2009? Fans.
people who don´t like star trek were not interested, especially outside the USA.
But ST2009 has attracted a little attention to these people.
The idea is to attract more people who do not like star trek, in Germany, England, Japan, Brazil, Australia, etc.
People who watched ST2009 will turn to watch the sequel.
So, I think it is unlikely that STID will have a box office less than $385m

 

[BillJ]

For what it's worth, in the April 2013 issue of British movie magazine, TOTAL FILM, they include a multi-page Summer blockbuster preview. In it, they finish each preview with a predicted global box office figure. STID is forecast to take $810m. Personally, I think that's probably just a tadge optimistic. For comparative purposes, they have Iron Man 3 set for $710, Fast 6 at $680 and The Lone Ranger bringing up the rear with $580.

Outside of Iron Man 3, I think those are all very optimistic numbers.

 

[bbailey861]

I'm hoping the involvement of Cumberbatch, the rest of the British actors and the London setting will hike up the UK box office take. And in Japan too, due to Cumby's superstar staus there. I'm also hoping all the Star Wars fans around the world will come along to see what their new God is capable of.

I had not considered the SW angle. My original thought was $400 mil worldwide - but I will adjust that up to 450 mil to account for the looky-loos.

 

[DarthTom]

I had not considered the SW angle. My original thought was $400 mil worldwide - but I will adjust that up to 450 mil to account for the looky-loos.

Just curious - I always assumed the cross over fan base between Wars and Trek was upwards of 90% despite the fact that some Trek fans are upset the JJ is now on aboard with both now.

Personally, I cannot think of any friend who is a fan of sci-fi who doesn't at least see both at the theatre.

Now hardcore Wars fans may not go to Trek conventions and vice versa but I always assumed that sci-fi fans at least watch both.

 

[wekkuli]

People who watched ST2009 will turn to watch the sequel.

Yes, of course many people will return for STID, but not all... What happened with Insurrection after First Contact's success?

I have no doubt that domestically STID will do just fine, but internationally they need to create more hype in order to get something like $500-600 million. Transformers and Iron Man do it easily, because they are much bigger titles than Trek internationally (ST09 didn't change much things I'm afraid).

 

[shapeshifter]

Shit-loads! 450 - 550 M.

 

[Aike]

We had a lot of fun with this before ST09 so I'm surprised there hasn't been a thread about it. We're less than two months away now. What do you predict the worldwide gross will be? Feel free to add any breakdowns you like.

Personally, I was dead wrong about the first movie, I projected it would make slightly more than the pattern of the favorite ST films, I believe it was somewhere around $160-180 million. Of course it went on to make $385 million and over $120 million+ on DVD/Bluray.

So here goes:

Opening: $85 million
Domestic: $325 million
Foreign: $180 million
Total: $505 million

I think this is a pretty good estimation. It will make more than Star Trek (2009) because of 3D.

 

[Garak]

$500-$600 million.

Khan will be a big draw.

 

[Flake]

I think :

North America: $290 million
Rest of World: $210 million

North American Opening Weekend: $90 Million

I think there will be more growth overseas than in North America partly because of 3D. It seems that outside of North America 3D is much more popular and that will help. Also in these countries where Trek is very weak perhaps over the last 4 years they have seen the reboot on their television and see that it is not so bad!

I think there is a lot of competition during May and this will hurt Trek. I think Christmas is the best time for a Star Trek movie because there is less competition and then Trek becomes the must see movie worldwide of the holidays rather than just another summer blockbuster... But hey what do I know?

The predictions of 800 million+ are way off IMO and they forget that trek outside of English speaking countries and Germany is very very weak.

Why is Trek so weak in non-English speaking countries? I have never understood why?

It really is amazing that we are posting these sorts of figures.. Cast your mind back to Nemesis bombing to maid in manhattan and a woeful total worldwide gross of 67 million dollars. Now we can predict such insane figures. Cast your minds back to 2005 and the cancellation of enterprise due to low ratings in the Friday night deathslot. My my how far we have come. (Yet some fans still complain)

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

$500-$600 million.

Khan will be a big draw.

Yep.

 

[Jax]

ST struggles in the international markets and this won't change IMO so...

Opening: $90 million
Domestic: $275 million
Foreign: $150 million
Total: $425 million

 

[PlainSimpleJoel]

I'm hoping for between $500 million and $550 million worldwide, but have a feeling it will be less than that - around $450 million.

I know there are friends who are trekkies, who aren't interested in this at all. One particular friend likes pointing this out.

 

[CorporalClegg]

I can guarantee $13.

 

[Flake]

I'm hoping for between $500 million and $550 million worldwide, but have a feeling it will be less than that - around $450 million.

I know there are friends who are trekkies, who aren't interested in this at all. One particular friend likes pointing this out.

Fortunately I think Trekkies who don't like the reboot will be outnumbered by ppl new to Trek post-reboot by at least 100:1

 

[CorporalClegg]

I'm hoping for between $500 million and $550 million worldwide, but have a feeling it will be less than that - around $450 million.

I know there are friends who are trekkies, who aren't interested in this at all. One particular friend likes pointing this out.

Fortunately I think Trekkies who don't like the reboot will be outnumbered by ppl new to Trek post-reboot by at least 100:1

True. Because for every one disgruntled Trekkie there are 20 who love nuTrek. And now they actually have something they can take their friends to and not be embarrassed about it.

 

[StalwartUK]

Similar amount to ST11, maybe a bit more. Most of the extra money will probably come from the 3D screenings.

 

[PlainSimpleJoel]

I'm hoping for between $500 million and $550 million worldwide, but have a feeling it will be less than that - around $450 million.

I know there are friends who are trekkies, who aren't interested in this at all. One particular friend likes pointing this out.

Fortunately I think Trekkies who don't like the reboot will be outnumbered by ppl new to Trek post-reboot by at least 100:1

And many new people discovering trek for the first time.

 

[The Mirrorball Man]

I know there are friends who are trekkies, who aren't interested in this at all.

Ex-Trekkies, then.

 

[SalvorHardin]

I searched the thread for "flop" and found nothing.
So I'm saying STID is going to flop. But don't quote me on that...unless it flops.



I have no idea, never been good at these predictions.

 

[RAMA]

For what it's worth, in the April 2013 issue of British movie magazine, TOTAL FILM, they include a multi-page Summer blockbuster preview. In it, they finish each preview with a predicted global box office figure. STID is forecast to take $810m. Personally, I think that's probably just a tadge optimistic. For comparative purposes, they have Iron Man 3 set for $710, Fast 6 at $680 and The Lone Ranger bringing up the rear with $580.

That's highly optimistic. I'd be happy if it made over $400 mill.