UK Prime Minister May calls for snap election.

[MacLeod]

We shall see what happens over the next 7 or so weeks as each party sets out their case to win our vote.

But when Polls say 47% think May wuld make the better PM and only 14% Corbyn you have a problem and even amongest Labour supporters his support is only 45%

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...our-voters-think-corbyn-would-be-best-pm-poll

Of course one key indicator of party support could come on the 4th May in the various local elections being held a month before the General Election.

 

[Relayer1]

Simples really, she'll have to call one at some point, the timing is tactical in that they'll almost certainly win.


Essentially the issues around Corbyn boil down to his inflexibility and his lack of polish. He spent years as a protester, campaigner and eventually somewhat out of touch back bencher.

In many ways elements of the labour membership (myself included) admire his hard and fast adherence to socialist principles and support of trade unions and they are the reason he remains in the leadership role. Unlike the tories (whose MPs select a leader amongst their number) the labour party essentially run a mini democracy amongst the paying party members, many of whom are trade unionists (me), left leaning intellectuals (sort of me after a fashion) and students (once upon a time....oh never mind). This means that the rank and file MPs can in theory be saddled with a leader whom they would not choose.

Their main concerns really are that he struggles in a number of key areas, revolving most notably his ability to garner public support outside of the core membership.

He lacks the professional appearance, does not engage even remotely with spin doctors or image consultants (often turning up to official engagements wearing second hand corduroys and sandals and sporting unbrushed hair whilst claiming parliament is not a catwalk) , struggles with his presentation skills when dealing with the press (mumbling, ignoring journalists, failing to make eye contact, refusing to play the "soundbite game") and stands firm on some fairly unpopular or even politically suicidal policies (unilateral nuclear disarmament) on ideological grounds.

He is a man of ideals and few would question that, what they doubt is that he is competent to deliver on those ideals, whether he could in fact lead a country, regardless of how earnest his beliefs may be. His lack of basic social skills or charisma plus the almost draconian approach he has to running the shadow cabinet have made him unpopular with his colleagues, with them allegedly drunkenly taunting him to his face at parties, chanting "back in the USSR" until he leaves in frustration, which obviously is divisive and fractious within any working environment.

Theresa May on the other hand is riding the populist wave on the back of being the great Brexit mastermind (despite having voted against), runs an extremely professional PR set up and knows full well her current ratings are more than sufficient to sail in.

As the Lib Dems are currently pretty much a non entity in British politics following the disastrous coalition government it's hard to see this not being a tory landslide and May knows this all too well.

Couldn't have put it better myself. Even your thumbnail of yourself seems slightly familiar !

Personally, I see this election as a disaster. I never wanted nor expected Corbyn to fight an election. My fervent hope was that he would reestablish Labour as a socialist party instead of the neo liberal flag wavers they have become. Once reestablished, he could have handed on to someone photogenic and soundbite friendly (i.e. electable) to fight the election.

That's not going to happen now. Labour will be destroyed at the polls, Corbyn will have to go and/or the party will split. Most likely, it'll revert to the Tory lite format comprehensively rejected in the last two general elections...

 

[cultcross]

Corbyn was someone who is politically a breath of fresh air for UK politics. Somebody who wasn't just another face on the same neo-liberal policies. The first genuinely left wing politician we've had in a major position since Thatcher destroyed the left at the ballot box. I voted for him in both Labour leadership elections because politically, I align well with him, I love the fact he proposes bizarre ideas like spending money on health, education and the environment, and I like the fact that he actually answered questions, honestly and in depth, giving thought to both sides of an issue and presenting a nuanced, balanced view. Unfortunately, that was seen as a weakness in the era of politicians who have to look like they know everything and bluster their way through interviews with soundbites, slogans and talking points. That was the first blow.

The second came when he faced questions about the Trident replacement and he gave an opinion that it was a waste of money, and also that as PM he could not foresee any circumstance in which he would use nuclear weapons. This got him painted as a dangerous leftie radical, and then he said that was his opinion not necessarily Labour policy, which got him called indecisive again.

Then came the anti-Semitism row within Labour which he utterly failed to get a grip on. And then, crucially, utterly failed to make it look like he had a grip on it, floundering and flapping and dodging, the opposite of the straight talking people had elected him on. This led people to feel he was being evasive because he agreed with the anti-Semitic wing of his party. Strike three.

Then, the final blow was Brexit. He was never that big a Europhile, the hard left have never been big on globalisation in general, and as such he was a lukewarm campaigner for Remain at best. He treated the whole thing like a parent reluctantly watching a kid's nativity - he felt he should be seen to do the expected thing, but his heart wasn't in it and he always looked slightly pained.
Once the referendum passed and the courts decided that Parliament must pass legislation to enable Article 50 to be triggered, he then made one of his only truly decisive leadership calls, and it was simultaneously the most bizarre one he could have made - he ordered his party to vote with the government, pass the bill, and trigger Brexit. And following the vote, sent round an email saying 'the fight starts now'. Even now, I have no idea what Labour's position on Brexit actually is.

Two years at the head of the party have taken a politician who was honest, clever, thoughtful and actually straight talking not as a euphemism for brash and intransigent, and turned him into a bumbling fool on the national stage. Given the opportunity to step up to the plate, he didn't. Whether that was the fault of the petulant children within the parliamentary party or not, the result is the same. He is not an electable PM, and Labour will be destroyed at this election.

 

[Relayer1]

Corbyn was someone who is politically a breath of fresh air for UK politics. Somebody who wasn't just another face on the same neo-liberal policies. The first genuinely left wing politician we've had in a major position since Thatcher destroyed the left at the ballot box. I voted for him in both Labour leadership elections because politically, I align well with him, I love the fact he proposes bizarre ideas like spending money on health, education and the environment, and I like the fact that he actually answered questions, honestly and in depth, giving thought to both sides of an issue and presenting a nuanced, balanced view. Unfortunately, that was seen as a weakness in the era of politicians who have to look like they know everything and bluster their way through interviews with soundbites, slogans and talking points. That was the first blow.

The second came when he faced questions about the Trident replacement and he gave an opinion that it was a waste of money, and also that as PM he could not foresee any circumstance in which he would use nuclear weapons. This got him painted as a dangerous leftie radical, and then he said that was his opinion not necessarily Labour policy, which got him called indecisive again.

Then came the anti-Semitism row within Labour which he utterly failed to get a grip on. And then, crucially, utterly failed to make it look like he had a grip on it, floundering and flapping and dodging, the opposite of the straight talking people had elected him on. This led people to feel he was being evasive because he agreed with the anti-Semitic wing of his party. Strike three.

Then, the final blow was Brexit. He was never that big a Europhile, the hard left have never been big on globalisation in general, and as such he was a lukewarm campaigner for Remain at best. He treated the whole thing like a parent reluctantly watching a kid's nativity - he felt he should be seen to do the expected thing, but his heart wasn't in it and he always looked slightly pained.
Once the referendum passed and the courts decided that Parliament must pass legislation to enable Article 50 to be triggered, he then made one of his only truly decisive leadership calls, and it was simultaneously the most bizarre one he could have made - he ordered his party to vote with the government, pass the bill, and trigger Brexit. And following the vote, sent round an email saying 'the fight starts now'. Even now, I have no idea what Labour's position on Brexit actually is.

Two years at the head of the party have taken a politician who was honest, clever, thoughtful and actually straight talking not as a euphemism for brash and intransigent, and turned him into a bumbling fool on the national stage. Given the opportunity to step up to the plate, he didn't. Whether that was the fault of the petulant children within the parliamentary party or not, the result is the same. He is not an electable PM, and Labour will be destroyed at this election.

Well, that's depressing.

Couldn't you at least have the common decency to be wrong ?

 

[cultcross]

I never made a mistake in my life. I thought I did once, but I was wrong

 

[MacLeod]

In other news the GE is on as it has passed the house.

 

[cultcross]

So like the wimpy kid in the playground agreeing to a fight so he doesn't look like a softy, Labour vote for their own downfall...

 

[Asbo Zaprudder]

Tactical voting is the only option for me so it's the Lib Dems -- holding my nose and pretending that Farron isn't a complete tool. Solid Tory majority where I live so no real hope...

 

[DimesDan]

That's my best bet too, I've signed up for and sent my (old) local authority the correct forms and I should have a postal vote in time for this election.

 

[MacLeod]

My constituncey is currently held by Labour but I suspect it mught flip back to the Conservatives who held it prior to the 2015 election it was a new seat at the 2010 election. I did some research and in terms of smallest majority to largest majority it ranks at 37th smallest majority. Just needs a 1.52% swing to the conservatives.

 

[Relayer1]

Well, Jezza is pulling out all the stops to establish his 'bad boy' credentials bar wearing leather jacket and shades.

Sticking it to The City, Phillip Green, Southern Rail, vested interests... Doing well too.

Nobody cares...

 

[Smellmet]

My Prediction

Tories 344
Labour 215
SNP 57
Lib Dems 11

I think this is a very optimistic prediction for Labour. They've got 229 seats as of now. I can see them losing 100 seats easily.

 

[MacLeod]

I think this is a very optimistic prediction for Labour. They've got 229 seats as of now. I can see them losing 100 seats easily.

Perhaps, but one might expect to see a narrowing of the polls as election day nears. We might have a bit of the shy-Labour supporter this year who supports Labour but won't say they do, due to the percieved unpopularity of it's leader Corbyn. Just as we have the shy-Tory who don't openly admit they support the Tories due to they percieved unpopularity.

But as I said earlier perhaps a good inidcator for the general election will be the Local Elections in a fortnight.

 

[Smellmet]

Maybe. I just cannot see the electorate voting for such a divided, infighting party. May has come across as a solid, credible politician too, something that Corbyn most definitely is not. We shall see.

 

[MacLeod]

Well the Corbyn supporters will vote ofr Labour no matter what same goes for the die-hard supporters of the other parties. So who do the pro-remain (Brexit) people vote for? Do they switch to a the Lib Dems, or stick with they usual party of choice (if not Lib Dems), stay at home and note vote or vote for who they pereiceve as the best PM despite they pro-remain feelings.

Just about the only issue where Labour has a lead over the Tories is on the NHS, but we need a healthy economy to pay for things like the NHS, education etc... So who do we trust more on economic matters?

 

[jamestyler]

I can see a strong (but not strong enough) vote for Labour. Despite the perception Corbyn has given (which is already mentioned above), he does have a significant advantage of being a pretty normal person.

Labour has become perceived as Tory Lite for a long time now. The distrust for men in sharp suits is stronger than it gets credit for, and despite the media backlash about Corbyn looking like he's just woken up from an all night party; there is HUGE mileage in him being the antithesis of everything the Tory's are.

The lack of performances, the media backlash, the piss taking.... it's all felt like it's been a symptom of him just giving up. He's got the bare minimum support of his party, he's a target for not being the conventional norm and with all he has down in his past, it doesn't quite match up with the man we see now.

If he can find some spark to give himself a boost, there's an audience who will follow; the ones fed up with the Tory's, the sharp suits, the PR of politics. The sad part is that it won't happen - a flawed idealist will be replaced with buzzwords and suits and we'll be right back to disillusion and soundbytes.

On a similar note (ish), there's been backlash to May refusing TV debates, but to be honest it's the smartest thing she can do. There were two moments recently that made me realise she's not good on her feet without having every scenario prepared. "Now is not the time" being one, which is a question she SHOULD have had a solid answer to, and then when Salmond repeated those words to her - something else she should have been prepared for - and just sat there looking like someone pee'd in her chips.

On one side we have a 'bumbling fool' who can't or won't do the PR tricks, and on the other someone who to me seems to rely on that PR team too much. Not that it matters to me as the whole thing feels like it's another piece of ammunition to give to Holyrood so Scotland can distance itself from the escalating disaster :/

 

[Nyotarules]

I'm thinking they want to throw the election.

You know why.

So they can blame Labour when we all go to Brexit hell in a handcart?

 

[Nyotarules]

I was just on Reddit, and the consensus there (and they're mostly lefties, mind you) is that the Tories will shoo it in, because Corbyn is, and I'm generalising, a generally hateful prick, useless politician, and crap.

Why? No one's really explained to us foreigners why Corbyn is so hated. We know his shadow cabinet can't stand him, but the rank and file love him and keep him in. What's he doing wrong? Genuinely curious.

He is not charismatic and is considered too left wing by some. However some of his political concerns are valid ones - large corporations not paying enough tax (nothing no one can do in this global world), poor investment in public services, (folks chant 'hands off our NHS' but who is offering to pay more taxes for it...none?), the housing market is a foreign rich man's playground. The investment in public housing has been in decline for over 20 years. One has to be on a 6 figure salary, to be able to afford to buy a house these days, gap between rich and middle class gets bigger, the middle class are more poor than well off. (Forget the poor they will always be with us...right?).
Plus when he was a backbencher he was not loyal to his party leadership but now expects loyalty that he never gave? Some folks might call that H.Y.P.O C.R.I.S.Y
Also the right wing media hates him politically but that is no surprise.

 

[Nyotarules]

Corbyn spent years in Parliament being utterly disloyal to the Labour Party leadership and yet once he became leader there was a push for loyalty contracts and MP's who didn't support him have been threatened with deselction.

His vote into the leadership was considerably help by elements of the extreme left using a cheap membership scheme to vote for him. He's nowhere near that popular among long term party members. His supporters also refuse to see any flaws, everything is a right wing/media conspiracy against him.

Despite the Labour Party (and Labour voters) being pro Remain he clearly wanted Brexit and essentially sabotaged the Remain campaign. He followed that up by demanding Article 50 was triggered immediately after the referendum vote.

He's essentially a protest politician who has no idea how to run a national campaign or operate as leader in the House Of Commons. His performances at Prime Ministers question time have been usually poor - failing to press May or Cameron on anything important. He makes his hatred of the media all to clear and avoids them as much as possible, preferring rallies of supporters. None of which helps get his policies, such as they are, across to the wider population.

His lot still think its 1977 and are dying for a miners style strike......Those days are dead comrades!

 

[Nyotarules]

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...es-hinder-labour-chances-of-winning-coalition

And if the survey in that above link is correct most Brits place themsleves a in the cente ground of UK politics with perhaps also a very slight edge towards centre-right over centre-left. And Labour is often seen as a left wing party it makes their task harder.

The Labour party does not have a good economic record running the state. We tend to end up bankrupt...I remember the 1970's before Thatcher got in, the UK was a disaster!