I'm still thinking Kirk is not Nero's target, its Spock after Romulus gets literally burned he goes all nuts or he and his crew are the last survivors of said cataclysm become pirates, get captured by Klingons and then years later break out.
Sharr
I agree. Something goes wrong with Spock's plan, Nero blames him for it, and to get revenge, he goes back in time and starts killing and destroying everything Spock held dear, Kirk, his parents, Vulcan, etc.
And the ironic icing on the cake being that Nero plans to take out Vulcan with red matter.