Actually... I totally agree with everything you just posted lol.No disagreement there. But the poor showing of Riker again makes in-universe sense.
The Cardassians could have targeted just about anybody when luring a Starfleet agent into their territory; Picard's supersecret command codes didn't appear to play much of a role in the eventual invasion or anything. Yet Obsidian Order experts no doubt had Riker's number down pat, too, and chose to target this ideal combo of a) a useful CO who b) has plenty of unique skills that could be exploited in baiting the trap and who c) will be missed by a hotheaded simpleton of a first officer. They could shop for a and b on just about any starship, but the Enterprise offered them c, too.
It would have been nice for Riker to make a bigger recovery of hero status at the end of the adventure, crushing the Cardassian offensive with his wits rather than just his flying skills. But the plot didn't really need that, and TNG didn't really need a superhero Riker who can do no wrong.
Timo Saloniemi

If they're targeting Picard, then it's fair to assume they could be targeting & gathering intel on the whole Enterprise crew, though they couldn't have totally known Nechayev would send the Enterprise, & they certainly never expected Jellico. Given Picard's specialty here, they probably would've just assumed the Enterprise, commanded BY Picard would fall into the trap, which stands to reason, because I'm pretty sure they probably got a grudge against him, for not getting their way with the Phoenix incident OR the Orta scam.
So they're like... #1, We don't like Picard for getting in our way too often. #2 he's maybe got some intel on an area we want back, though even if we don't extract it, it hardly matters to our overall plan, & he's still useful as a bargaining chip at the negotiating table, once we have him. #3 he's one of their best & brightest. Him & his ship are like the patron saints of the fleet. Who better to knock down a peg or two & demoralize Starfleet? #4 he's got a 1st officer who is sort of a soft spot when it comes to the old man (See also Time's Arrow, Darmok, BoBW, etc...)
If they'd caught wind of that last thing, he'd be the perfect chump to play against a captain we're holding, & unfortunately had he been given the chance, would likely have gotten played like a fiddle. It's the fact that he is shown to be stupid enough to fall into that trap, hook, line & sinker that's a tough sell, but like I've said, sometimes, he actually is pretty gullible, so it's not completely out of character either
I do agree, that it was pretty sad that his competency as a commander (Not just a pilot) doesn't get any kind of redemption, after all that. The plot didn't need it, but his character sure did imho. Like maybe while he was in the mine field, he could've found Picard himself or something. I guess that would've taken too much run time in the episode though
The irony is, Gul Madred really isn't doing much in this episode for anything important. He's kind of a pathetic figure of an ex-interrogator, who's basically just been tasked with torturing someone, for no reason except he's the guy who we get to torture people, for something he probably doesn't have anyhow, & it doesn't even matter whether he gets it... which he doesn't. Quite the opposite lol