That's your lot. Entries and nominations are now closed.
The Box Office Predictor Game 2023
- Thread starter The Knappos
- Start date
We ought check in to see how things are panning out.
Avatar doesn't count, but it is so far #1 for 2023 according to Box Office MOJO
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2023/
Ant Man is currently #2... but I don't think it will stay at 5 as I hoped.
Creed III is #3, so it might make the top 10.
Puss in Boots is #4
John Wick is "only" #5, but it still has a few weeks, so it could make the top 10 at the end
I am on the road, so I might edit this and give more details.
You need to change the filter from ‘Calendar grosses’ to ‘in year releases’
Current top ten is:
1. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
2. Creed III
3. John Wick: Chapter 4
4. Scream VI
5. M3gan
6. Cocaine Bear
7. Shazam! Fury of the Gods
8. Jesus Revolution
9. Dungeons and Dragons: Honour Among Thieves
10. 80 for Brady
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Well, a weekend has been and gone since my post above and a week's a long time in politics etc...
So the top ten is now (films we've nominated are in bold):
1. Super Mario Bros.
2. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
3. Creed III
4. John Wick: Chapter 4
5. Scream VI
6. M3gan
7. Cocaine Bear
8. Dungeons and Dragons: Honour Among Thieves
9. Shazam! Fury of the Gods
10. Jesus Revolution
Which gives us current scores of:
14 - Starscream2112
13 - Starbreaker
10 - Valkyrie
7 - Morpheus 02
3 - The Knappos
So the top ten is now (films we've nominated are in bold):
1. Super Mario Bros.
2. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
3. Creed III
4. John Wick: Chapter 4
5. Scream VI
6. M3gan
7. Cocaine Bear
8. Dungeons and Dragons: Honour Among Thieves
9. Shazam! Fury of the Gods
10. Jesus Revolution
Which gives us current scores of:
14 - Starscream2112
13 - Starbreaker
10 - Valkyrie
7 - Morpheus 02
3 - The Knappos
Current top ten, with nominated films in bold
1. Super Mario Bros
2. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
3. John Wick Chapter 4
4. Creed III
5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
6. Scream VI
7. M3gan
8. Dungeons and Dragons: Honour Among Thieves
9. Cocaine Bear
10. Shazam! Fury of the Gods
Which gives us current scores of (with the number of films nominated left to be released in parentheses):
24 - Starbreaker (11)
22 - Starscream2112 (10)
20 - Valkyrie013 (12)
14 - Morpheus (11)
10 - The Knappos (13)
There are eight BIG films coming out between now and the end of June so don't expect this to look the same in 6 or so weeks.
1. Super Mario Bros
2. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
3. John Wick Chapter 4
4. Creed III
5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
6. Scream VI
7. M3gan
8. Dungeons and Dragons: Honour Among Thieves
9. Cocaine Bear
10. Shazam! Fury of the Gods
Which gives us current scores of (with the number of films nominated left to be released in parentheses):
24 - Starbreaker (11)
22 - Starscream2112 (10)
20 - Valkyrie013 (12)
14 - Morpheus (11)
10 - The Knappos (13)
There are eight BIG films coming out between now and the end of June so don't expect this to look the same in 6 or so weeks.
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So are we looking at the end of June as the next check in date?
It’s possible I’ll do one between then and now. I didn’t plan on an earlier one, but maybe.
Well, I'm a bit late but better that than never, eh?
The current top then at the US domestic box office is:
1. Super Mario Bros
2. Guardians of the Galaxy 3
3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
4. The Little Mermaid
5. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
6. John Wick: Chapter 4
7. Creed III
8. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
9. Fast X
10. Scream VI
Films we've nominated but which haven't made it into the top ten:
11. The Flash
12. Elemental
13. M3gan
14. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
15. Dungeons and Dragons: Honour Among Thieves
17. Cocaine Bear
A very unpredictable year. Well, an incredibly packed and not entirely lucrative June anyway.
Scores then are:
31 - @Starbreaker
29 - @Morpheus 02
23 - The Knappos
22 - @valkyrie013
21 - @Starscream2112
This month ahead sees M:I 7, Oppenheimer and Barbie in terms of nominations.
The current top then at the US domestic box office is:
1. Super Mario Bros
2. Guardians of the Galaxy 3
3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
4. The Little Mermaid
5. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
6. John Wick: Chapter 4
7. Creed III
8. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
9. Fast X
10. Scream VI
Films we've nominated but which haven't made it into the top ten:
11. The Flash
12. Elemental
13. M3gan
14. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
15. Dungeons and Dragons: Honour Among Thieves
17. Cocaine Bear
A very unpredictable year. Well, an incredibly packed and not entirely lucrative June anyway.
Scores then are:
31 - @Starbreaker
29 - @Morpheus 02
23 - The Knappos
22 - @valkyrie013
21 - @Starscream2112
This month ahead sees M:I 7, Oppenheimer and Barbie in terms of nominations.
I am going to tank as hard as these superhero movies soon
We should definitley wait a few weeks with updates... but @Starscream2112 and @Starbreaker you guys called with at least one Dark Horse candidate,,,, this has been a crazy year.... Sound of Freedom seems poised to get into the top 10, and among the total surprises for me.
Can't wait to see how it all turns out.
Can't wait to see how it all turns out.
Well, well, well...
What a difference an accidental joke meme going viral can make!
The current domestic US top ten:
1. Super Mario Bros.
2. Barbie
3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
5. The Little Mermaid
6. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
7. Oppenheimer
8. John Wick: Chapter 4
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
10. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
And nominated films outside the top ten:
13. Elemental
14. Fast X
15. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
17. The Flash
18. M3gan
19. Dungeons and Dragons
22. Cocaine Bear
32. 65
75. Chevalier
Which gives us the following scores:
32 - Starbreaker
31 - Morpheus 02
29 - Valkyrie013
26 - Starscream2112
25 - the Knappos
That's 7 months down, 5 to go. Loads can change between now and new year!
What a difference an accidental joke meme going viral can make!
The current domestic US top ten:
1. Super Mario Bros.
2. Barbie
3. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
5. The Little Mermaid
6. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
7. Oppenheimer
8. John Wick: Chapter 4
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
10. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
And nominated films outside the top ten:
13. Elemental
14. Fast X
15. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
17. The Flash
18. M3gan
19. Dungeons and Dragons
22. Cocaine Bear
32. 65
75. Chevalier
Which gives us the following scores:
32 - Starbreaker
31 - Morpheus 02
29 - Valkyrie013
26 - Starscream2112
25 - the Knappos
That's 7 months down, 5 to go. Loads can change between now and new year!
Thanks so much for the update! I wasn't expecting it so soon!
It is ever changing... the Sound of Freedom is still growing strong and could conceivably beat out Transformers and even Indiana Jones! (And totally off all of our charts!)
Would anyone be able to figure out how "off" we are as a group? Like MI would be a median of 1 or 2, but we were off by 12 places.
So the average of all of us vs. Reality?
And it is crazy that some of our top choices (such as Mission Impossible) isn't even in the top 10!
There might be a bit of a delay in the next one. I’m starting a new job next week and they may not afford me the brain breaks I take at the current (soon to be old) place to do this stuff as regularly.
Barbie just beat Super Mario Brothers!
So i know Knappos said it might be a while... but i think we have a list now that will last a couple of months...
SUPER curious where we stand now...
And i know it is asking a lot... but I wonder how easy it is to average our lists, to see how our composite top 10 list looks, and how it compares to reality.... like how no one would have guessed that Barbie would be #1.... or that Sound of freedom would make it.
So i know Knappos said it might be a while... but i think we have a list now that will last a couple of months...
SUPER curious where we stand now...
And i know it is asking a lot... but I wonder how easy it is to average our lists, to see how our composite top 10 list looks, and how it compares to reality.... like how no one would have guessed that Barbie would be #1.... or that Sound of freedom would make it.
It won’t be this weekend, I’m afraid. I’ve got a bit much on.
I’ve done what I call gestalt nominations lists before but it’s been a while since I’ve done one. For that I’d need a bit more time too, but maybe if I can find an old one I did I can copy the approach.
I’ve done what I call gestalt nominations lists before but it’s been a while since I’ve done one. For that I’d need a bit more time too, but maybe if I can find an old one I did I can copy the approach.
Just wanted to post the current list (as of last Wednesday), but with Taylor Swift's concert movie opening today, i suspect it will be in the top 10 probably #7, maybe as high as #5...
I was hoping to see Sound of Freedom stay in the top 10 (as one of the few non-franchise movies up there), but it looks like it will drop down to maybe #13 or so
1 Barbie $634,619,277 4,337 $162,022,044 25.5% 4,243 Jul 21 - Warner Bros.
2 The Super Mario Bros. Movie $574,934,330 4,371 $146,361,865 25.5% 4,343 Apr 5 Sep 7 Universal Pictures
3 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $381,311,319 4,332 $120,663,589 31.6% 4,313 Jun 2 Sep 14 Columbia Pictures
4 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 $358,995,815 4,450 $118,414,021 33% 4,450 May 5 - Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
5 Oppenheimer $323,348,565 3,761 $82,455,420 25.5% 3,610 Jul 21 - Universal Pictures
6 The Little Mermaid $298,172,056 4,320 $95,578,040 32.1% 4,320 May 26 Sep 14 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
7 Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania $214,504,909 4,345 $106,109,650 49.5% 4,345 Feb 17 Jun 15 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
8 John Wick: Chapter 4 $187,131,806 3,855 $73,817,950 39.4% 3,855 Mar 24 Jun 15 Lions Gate Films
9 Sound of Freedom $184,038,874 3,411 $19,680,879 10.7% 2,852 Jul 4 - Angel Studios
10 Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny $174,480,468 4,600 $60,368,101 34.6% 4,600 Jun 30 Sep 14 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
I was hoping to see Sound of Freedom stay in the top 10 (as one of the few non-franchise movies up there), but it looks like it will drop down to maybe #13 or so
1 Barbie $634,619,277 4,337 $162,022,044 25.5% 4,243 Jul 21 - Warner Bros.
2 The Super Mario Bros. Movie $574,934,330 4,371 $146,361,865 25.5% 4,343 Apr 5 Sep 7 Universal Pictures
3 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $381,311,319 4,332 $120,663,589 31.6% 4,313 Jun 2 Sep 14 Columbia Pictures
4 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 $358,995,815 4,450 $118,414,021 33% 4,450 May 5 - Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
5 Oppenheimer $323,348,565 3,761 $82,455,420 25.5% 3,610 Jul 21 - Universal Pictures
6 The Little Mermaid $298,172,056 4,320 $95,578,040 32.1% 4,320 May 26 Sep 14 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
7 Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania $214,504,909 4,345 $106,109,650 49.5% 4,345 Feb 17 Jun 15 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
8 John Wick: Chapter 4 $187,131,806 3,855 $73,817,950 39.4% 3,855 Mar 24 Jun 15 Lions Gate Films
9 Sound of Freedom $184,038,874 3,411 $19,680,879 10.7% 2,852 Jul 4 - Angel Studios
10 Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny $174,480,468 4,600 $60,368,101 34.6% 4,600 Jun 30 Sep 14 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
Here is the latest from Box Office Mojo.... at this point, i just don't see anything coming up and taking any of the top 10 spots.
Taylor Swift beat Indiana Jones, and yet SOund of Freedom seems to be solidly in the top 10:
Rank Release Gross Max Th Opening % of Total Open Th Open Close Distributor
1 Barbie $636,210,056 4,337 $162,022,044 25.5% 4,243 Jul 21 - Warner Bros.
2 The Super Mario Bros. Movie $574,934,330 4,371 $146,361,865 25.5% 4,343 Apr 5 Sep 7 Universal Pictures
3 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $381,311,319 4,332 $120,663,589 31.6% 4,313 Jun 2 Sep 14 Columbia Pictures
4 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 $358,995,815 4,450 $118,414,021 33% 4,450 May 5 - Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
5 Oppenheimer $326,034,265 3,761 $82,455,420 25.3% 3,610 Jul 21 - Universal Pictures
6 The Little Mermaid $298,172,056 4,320 $95,578,040 32.1% 4,320 May 26 Sep 14 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
7 Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania $214,504,909 4,345 $106,109,650 49.5% 4,345 Feb 17 Jun 15 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
8 John Wick: Chapter 4 $187,131,806 3,855 $73,817,950 39.4% 3,855 Mar 24 Jun 15 Lions Gate Films
9 Sound of Freedom $184,178,046 3,411 $19,680,879 10.7% 2,852 Jul 4 - Angel Studios
10 Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour $179,228,338 3,855 $92,804,678 51.8% 3,855 Oct 13 - -
Taylor Swift beat Indiana Jones, and yet SOund of Freedom seems to be solidly in the top 10:
Rank Release Gross Max Th Opening % of Total Open Th Open Close Distributor
1 Barbie $636,210,056 4,337 $162,022,044 25.5% 4,243 Jul 21 - Warner Bros.
2 The Super Mario Bros. Movie $574,934,330 4,371 $146,361,865 25.5% 4,343 Apr 5 Sep 7 Universal Pictures
3 Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $381,311,319 4,332 $120,663,589 31.6% 4,313 Jun 2 Sep 14 Columbia Pictures
4 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 $358,995,815 4,450 $118,414,021 33% 4,450 May 5 - Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
5 Oppenheimer $326,034,265 3,761 $82,455,420 25.3% 3,610 Jul 21 - Universal Pictures
6 The Little Mermaid $298,172,056 4,320 $95,578,040 32.1% 4,320 May 26 Sep 14 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
7 Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania $214,504,909 4,345 $106,109,650 49.5% 4,345 Feb 17 Jun 15 Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
8 John Wick: Chapter 4 $187,131,806 3,855 $73,817,950 39.4% 3,855 Mar 24 Jun 15 Lions Gate Films
9 Sound of Freedom $184,178,046 3,411 $19,680,879 10.7% 2,852 Jul 4 - Angel Studios
10 Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour $179,228,338 3,855 $92,804,678 51.8% 3,855 Oct 13 - -
Hey @The Knappos -- i started the Box Office Predictor 2024 game thread... but if you want me to edit it, or delete it so you can make your own.... just let me know.
I know you have been busy with work... i forgot this was started mid-December, and after Aquaman didn't do so hot, i should have said something... but let us know!
I know you have been busy with work... i forgot this was started mid-December, and after Aquaman didn't do so hot, i should have said something... but let us know!
I’ll be back in here once the year end estimates are actuals.
@Morpheus 02, I’m happy for you to run with the 2024 game. Chances are I’m going to be a wee bit too busy to run it. But I will definitely look to enter!
@Morpheus 02, I’m happy for you to run with the 2024 game. Chances are I’m going to be a wee bit too busy to run it. But I will definitely look to enter!
Another year down and another crazily unpredictable year it was.
Full out flops in the top ten? Yep.
Anywhoo, on with the show
Films landing outside of the top twenty is where we’ll start:
22. The Flash
24. M3gan
25. Dungeons and Dragons: Honour Among Thieves
28. The Marvels
29. Meg 2: The Trench
31. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
34. Killers of the Flower Moon
36. The Exorcist: The Believer
37. Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie
38. Cocaine Bear
40. Napoleon
69. 65
63. Asteroid City
Full out flops in the top ten? Yep.
Anywhoo, on with the show
Films landing outside of the top twenty is where we’ll start:
22. The Flash
24. M3gan
25. Dungeons and Dragons: Honour Among Thieves
28. The Marvels
29. Meg 2: The Trench
31. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
34. Killers of the Flower Moon
36. The Exorcist: The Believer
37. Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie
38. Cocaine Bear
40. Napoleon
69. 65
63. Asteroid City
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