The Box Office Predictor Game 2023

Discussion in 'TV & Media' started by The Knappos, Dec 22, 2022.

  1. The Knappos

    The Knappos Captain Captain

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2021
    Location:
    South coast, UK
    Jingle bells,
    Streaming smells,
    Cinema is the best!


    This is a fun game for folks who follow movie box office stories and charts, looking at films coming out in the US during 2023.

    The goal is simple:

    Use your crystal balls to predict 2023’s top 10 films in terms box office takings in the domestic US, in the order you think they will place as at the end of 31st December 2023.

    You get to pick an overall 'squad' of 15 films, the top ten and a subs bench of 5 Dark Horses. Dark Horse picks allow you to choose 5 extra films that you are less sure of appearing in the top 10 but you can get some points if they do instead of one of your main picks. Good examples in recent years could be films like Venom, Deadpool, IT and both Venoms.

    If you haven’t played the game before and would like an idea of nominations, the 2022 game thread is here.

    Scoring:

    Getting number 1 or number 10 dead-on gets you 13 points (each).

    10 points for numbers 2-9 dead-on
    7 points if your pick got into the top ten and was only one spot away from where it ended up
    5 points if it was in the top ten and two spots away
    3 points if your pick is anywhere in the Top 10

    1 point for each dark horse that makes it into the Top 10

    The scoring is tabulated so that you get the SINGLE HIGHEST point value for each pick- that is, if you get number ten right, you don't get 13+3, you get 13.

    The maximum possible score is 106.

    Scoring is limited to films which are in the top ten. So, if you nominate a film at 9 or 10 and they come in at 11 or 12, the 7 and 5 points won’t apply.



    Notes:
    1. This is for the US domestic Box Office only. No overseas figures are included.

    2. Only films which open in the US in 2023 can be included. You can find a list here:
    movieinsider.com/movies/2023 and here: boxofficemojo.com/calendar/2023.

    E.g. Any 2023 gross from Avatar; The Way of Water will not be included

    3. Only takings up to the 31st December 2023 will be included.

    E.g. the Ghostbusters: Afterlife sequel is currently due for release on 20 December 2023 and will only have 12 days of takings counted. For Star Wars: The Force Awakens back in 2015, that cut off made the difference between first and second place (by roughly $5K!).

    4. There will be no substitutions if you nominate a film currently on the release schedule, which is then pushed back into another year or cancelled altogether by the studio after entries close.

    5. Likewise, there will be no substitutions if you nominate a film currently on the theatrical release schedule that then is bought by Netflix/Amazon or is changed to a streaming only release and doesn’t get a theatrical run. Likewise, if you nominate a direct to streaming release and I don’t catch it and warn you, no subs after entries close.

    6. If you change your username after entering, I am likely not to notice and continue referring to you by your previous username until the end of the competition (I don’t mind being corrected though).

    7. You are free to make and post changes to your predictions at any time between when you first post them and when entries close.

    8. Entries close at Noon UK time on 16th January 2023. No changes or late entries will be included after this point.



    In the event of a tie

    If there is a tie break situation, the winner will be determined, on a sliding scale by:

    1. Who nominated the most films which scored 13
    2. Who nominated the most films which scored 10
    3. Who nominated the most films which scored 7
    4. Who nominated the most films which scored 5
    5. Who nominated the most films which scored 3
    6. Who had the most scoring Dark Horse nominations
    7. Who had the most scoring nominations altogether
    8. Who had the highest placing, non-scoring nominated film
    9. If the two nominations list match exactly, whoever posted that list first
     
  2. Morpheus 02

    Morpheus 02 Rear Admiral Rear Admiral

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2003
    Location:
    Chicago IL
    1. mission impossible
    2. fast x
    3. indiana Jones 5
    4. guardians of the galaxy 3
    5. Ant Man 3
    6 . Flash
    7. Aquaman
    8. John Wick 4
    9. Across the Spiderverse
    10. Hunger Games
    11. Shazam 2
    12. Little Mermaid (a kids movie with more diversity, and a following because of it)
    13. Marvels
    14. Ghostbusters after-Afterlife (more for timing than anything)
    15. color purple (don't underestimate african American base, with renewed cultural interest, and differen than most top 10)
     
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  3. Starbreaker

    Starbreaker Fleet Admiral Admiral

    Joined:
    Feb 19, 2001
    Location:
    Birmingham, AL
    1. Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1
    2. Fast X
    3. Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3
    4. Ant-Man & the Wasp: Quantumania
    5. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
    6. The Marvels
    7. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
    8. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
    9. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
    10. Shazam: Fury of the Gods
    11. The Super Mario Bros Movie
    12. The Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
    13. The Little Mermaid
    14. Oppenheimer
    15. Wonka

    Dune Part 2
    Napoleon
    Barbie
    Saw X
    Knock the Cabin
     
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  4. Morpheus 02

    Morpheus 02 Rear Admiral Rear Admiral

    Joined:
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    Location:
    Chicago IL
    So you don't believe The Flash will do any good????
     
  5. Starbreaker

    Starbreaker Fleet Admiral Admiral

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    Feb 19, 2001
    Location:
    Birmingham, AL
    I think the multiple years of negative press is going to tank this movie.
     
  6. The Knappos

    The Knappos Captain Captain

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2021
    Location:
    South coast, UK
    Remember guys, it’s the top ten and then 5 dark horses.
    If you’ve entered in a 1-15 format, I’m taking 1-10 as your predicted top ten and 11-15 as your dark horses. If you’ve entered in a 1-20 format, I’m taking 1-10 as your predicted top ten, 11-15 as your dark horses and discarding 16-20.

    Of course, you can revise your entries but please do so in a subsequent post, rather than editing your first.

    As for my first guesses…

    It feels like movies are in a weird place. With the pandemic bringing a shift to streaming bias, and then recently all the stories about the floor falling out of streaming platform profitability. But the studios are set up with that skewed bias, which also undercuts the profitability potential of cinema. Which seems they're cutting their nose and their face off despite themselves and us and everything.

    Which makes it difficult to predict.

    1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
    2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
    3. The Marvels
    4. Super Mario Bros.
    5. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
    6. The Flash
    7. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
    8. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
    9. Dungeons and Dragons: Honour Among Thieves
    10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

    DH. Shazam! Fury of the Gods
    DH. Faxt X
    DH. Oppenheimer
    DH. Dune: Part two
    DH. Ghostbusters: Afterlife 2


    I expect, if I can find the time, to revise this. Perhaps significantly. I think I've missed out a couple of demographics which can normally land a film in the top ten.

    Also, September seems to be very sparse in terms of releases announced. Pre-pandemic I'd always look to September to have a potential surprise success in there (this did not work 100% of the time), but there's nothing (yet).

    Still, there's a few weeks to go for entries and revisions, so I'll hopefully find a little bit to f time to rethink and guess again.
     
  7. Morpheus 02

    Morpheus 02 Rear Admiral Rear Admiral

    Joined:
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    Location:
    Chicago IL
    OK, some slight revisions

    1. mission impossible
    2. fast x
    3. indiana Jones 5
    4. guardians of the galaxy 3
    5. Ant Man 3
    6 . Flash - for the sake of curiousity...and maybe if Zaslav's promised edits will do some good, maybe even a preview/setup of the DCOU
    7. John Wick 4
    8. Across the Spiderverse
    9. Hunger Games
    10. Aquaman
    11. Shazam 2 - i think Ant Man will deflate the interest a tad, to keep up out of the top 10, unfortunately.
    12. Little Mermaid (a kids movie with more diversity, and a following because of it)
    13. Marvels
    14. Ghostbusters after-Afterlife (more for timing than anything)
    15. color purple (don't underestimate african American base, with renewed cultural interest, and differen than most top 10)



    Slightly revised.... I dropped Aquaman down to 10. i just realized that it was coming out on Christmas, with probably little chance of being pushed back... So that one week might be a big week. It might even be enough for that # 10 spot.

    I am keeping the 11-15 designations, just to see how it pans out. They are of course Dark Horse choices for the contest.
     
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  8. Starscream2112

    Starscream2112 Commander Red Shirt

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2010
    1. Fast x
    2. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
    3. Indiana Jones 5
    4. Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1
    5. Guardians of the galaxy 3
    6. The Flash
    7. John Wick 4
    8. Shazam: Fury of the Gods
    9. Ant Man 3
    10. Aquaman
    11. Across the Spiderverse
    12. Dune Part 2
    13. M3gan
    14. Barbie
    15. Little Mermaid
     
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  9. valkyrie013

    valkyrie013 Commodore Commodore

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2009
    Domestic Only? Okay.
    1. Mission Impossible, Part 1
    2. Dune Part 2
    3. John Wick 4
    4. Spider Man: Spider Verse
    5. Fast X
    6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
    7. The Marvels
    4. Super Mario Bros.
    6. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
    8. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
    9. Little Mermaid
    10. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny

    DH. Paw Patrol
    DH. Meg 2
    DH. Oppenheimer
    DH. The Flash
    DH. Ghostbusters: Afterlife 2
     
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  10. The Knappos

    The Knappos Captain Captain

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2021
    Location:
    South coast, UK
    I've had a second think. There'll probably be a third...

    1. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
    2. The Marvels
    3. Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
    4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
    5. Elemental
    6. The Flash
    7. The Little Mermaid
    8. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
    9. Fast X
    10. Ghostbusters: Afterlife 2

    DH. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom
    DH. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
    DH. Transformers: Rise of the Beasts
    DH. Dune: Part Two
    DH. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
     
  11. Morpheus 02

    Morpheus 02 Rear Admiral Rear Admiral

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2003
    Location:
    Chicago IL
    Definitely curious about your reasoning on these...
     
  12. The Knappos

    The Knappos Captain Captain

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2021
    Location:
    South coast, UK
    I normally save my reasonings for my final nominations.

    I normally start with a list of 30-35 films from the year ahead. I then whittle that down to 15 using a three or four step process. Once I’ve got my 15, I arrange them into my top ten and the five left become the dark horses.

    There’s a huge element of subjectivity. And although I do one or two things to aid objective rationality, gut feeling can often override that. As a result, I can repeat my process blind and come up with a similar but significantly different 15 each time. Sometimes I take all my guess lists and ‘average it out.’ It depends how much time I have.
    I’ve only done these two versions of the 2023 list so far and I can already anticipate my gut wanting another pass sometime this week.
     
  13. Timby

    Timby I Am That Fool Administrator

    Joined:
    May 28, 2001
    The Afterlife sequel doesn't even begin filming until March; there's no way an effects-heavy movie like that goes from Day 1 of shooting to being ready to go in theaters in nine months. It's not making that December date, and you're wasting a vote.
     
  14. The Knappos

    The Knappos Captain Captain

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2021
    Location:
    South coast, UK
    It’ll be a tight turnaround for sure. But I’ll verify and bear your advice in mind for revision 2&3.

    Im interested to see yours, too.
     
  15. Morpheus 02

    Morpheus 02 Rear Admiral Rear Admiral

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    Location:
    Chicago IL
    It will be interesting if it doesn't make it... and would Aquaman then maybe release a week earlier? If so, that COULD bump up results significantly
     
  16. Timby

    Timby I Am That Fool Administrator

    Joined:
    May 28, 2001
    Verify all you want, it's from the Film & Television Industry Alliance.

    The only effects-heavy movie I can think of that had such a quick turnaround was Star Trek V: The Final Frontier, which began filming in October 1988 for a June 1989 release, and that was so crunched that effects work suffered significantly. Ghostbusters II also began filming in November 1988 for a July 1989 release (which then kept getting pushed forward until it had a mid-June release date), and because the movie was shooting as late as April, ILM had to offload effects work to Apogee, Tippet Studio, Peter Kuran's VCE and a bunch of other smaller outfits. And the first Afterlife had more than 1,100 visual effects shots, roughly ten times more than the 180-ish that are in Ghostbusters II.

    It is not making that December date.

    I'd say it's possible, but Afterlife didn't exactly set the world on fire in terms of box office revenue, and I doubt it would have performed nearly as well now that the world likes to pretend that the pandemic is over. I don't see WB being scared of a potential Afterlife sequel.
     
  17. The Knappos

    The Knappos Captain Captain

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    Location:
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    Quick reminder that there's a week left. Entries close at 12 noon UK time on 16 January.
     
  18. Morpheus 02

    Morpheus 02 Rear Admiral Rear Admiral

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    Location:
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    I think you need to edit this one. It is a bit off.
     
  19. The Knappos

    The Knappos Captain Captain

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    Location:
    South coast, UK
    Morning all...

    Your deadline for entries, new or revised, is roughly three hours away.
     
  20. The Knappos

    The Knappos Captain Captain

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    Location:
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    I am sticking with my choices. I know Ghostbusters has been highlighted as a gamble but longshots can sometimes make it interesting